Survivalism: How to Prepare for the Economic Collapse and The Cause of the Recession

Survivalism: How to Prepare for the Economic Collapse

By freedomarizona.org

If this forecast holds true, and a major portion of our states file bankruptcy, there will be widespread panic, our state funded services and programs will be closed down immediately, and confusion amongst political leadership and the citizenry.

Not long after the states file bankruptcy, could we see martial law declared by the President of the United States, as a means to bring order and peace. Those who are not willing to comply with the mandates of the martial law will be hauled off to FEMA camps and military bases throughout the United States.

How can you prepare for this economic collapse now?

Food

• Begin stocking up your cabinets, pantries, and closets with non-perishable food items.
• Purchase a portable camping stove in case your home’s electricity is shut off.
• Start consuming a healthier diet so your body isn’t dependent on the processed and junk foods we’ve grown accustom to.
• If your have the space in your yard, plant and grow a garden.
• Stock up on vitamins and necessary supplements to ensure you stay healthy in the next Great Depression.

Household

• Discuss emergency plans with your family, roommates, friends, and/or loved ones.
• Store a stockpile of hygiene items including deodorant, toothpaste, towels, washcloths, and toilet paper.
• Make sure you have a hefty reserve of bottled water on hand, stored in a safe place.
• Keep extra pillows, sheets, and blankets in your closets.
• Have at least one shotgun, rifle, or handgun, if not more.
• Ensure you have enough ammunition to defend yourself, your household, and your loved ones in emergency situations.

Community

• Get to know your neighbors.
• Know who you can and cannot trust in your local community.
• Gather together with like-minded individuals in your community, choose designated methods of contact, and choose a few leaders.
• Pick a safe house, where your community coalition will go in emergency situations.
• Pick two alternative safe houses, in case the primary safe house becomes compromised.
• In times of peace, continue to make your community aware of political, social, and economic dangers.

Money

• Save paper and coin money in a safe place in your house.
• Invest in a small or medium size safe to store your money and other valuables.
• Slowly begin withdrawing from your savings and investment accounts on a regular basis. Store this money in a safe location.
• If you can purchase gold, buy it. Gold retains the same value no matter how low or high the currency markets go.
• Stop paying taxes to save money and force government leaders to listen to the citizenry, the people who put them in office.

Further Reading

Read the survival documents at:
http://www.textfiles.com/survival/

It’s better to prepare for the worse, and hope for the best.

Take Action

Remember the government belongs to the people and it’s our duty to ensure our rights and freedom.

Spread the Economic Collapse Newsletter [pdf] everywhere. Download. Print. Distribute.

The Cause of the Recession

(NaturalNews) Every day there is news of jobs lost and businesses closing. These lost jobs and closed businesses are not being replaced by new jobs and businesses. Unemployment is increasing. Only two years ago our situation was not like this. What has changed? Why are we heading steadily into a depression? What is the cause?

An economy is not based on money or finance, though most people believe it is. The ultimate basis of an economy is entirely physical. An economy is ultimately based on the production of physical wealth. Without first having adequate food and energy production, none of our other economic activities would even be possible.

What is the physical change causing the economy to crash? Has there been a destructive flood or drought? Have we run out of iron in the earth? Are all the trees gone? Did a massive earthquake destroy all our factories? None of the above is the cause. Nothing physical has changed to cause our economy to decline. We have all the factories we need to produce. We have the energy, materials, and the know-how to make what we want. We have plenty of people willing to work. Despite this, the economy is crumbling and unemployment is ever increasing.

The economy is going bad due to faulty financial systems and human conventions. It should be axiomatic that what is physically possible would also be financially possible. Money is not a physically limiting factor to production. Money is simply a means by which we exchange physical goods and services. It allows us to advance beyond barter. It is not a raw material used in the physical production of anything. We do not use money in the production of cars or apples. The production of both is entirely physical. Money is not built into a car seat or used to fertilize an apple tree. The economy continues to decline solely because the money and economic system are not properly understood and structured. If we had the proper systems and a correct understanding of the relationship between money and physical wealth, the economy would immediately begin to improve. Physically we are capable of improving the economy right now.

Economists claim to understand the economy. If they do, why is there a recession? People in government claim to know what they are doing. If they do, why is there a recession? Perhaps if economists and politicians knew what they were doing, we would not be in this position. Logically, the economy should improve over time as technology advances, yet it is getting worse with time.

Economists like to pretend that the economy is like the weather, sometimes good and sometimes bad. There are bad spots we just have to endure. Why? There is no physical reason. Our ability to work and produce has not changed at all. The dishonest money system causes economic instability resulting in cycles of boom and bust. The simple solution to the problems caused by the dishonest money system is an honest money system.

Since money is necessary to exchange goods and services, the flow of money is critical to the economy. When the money stops flowing, the economy stops moving. Banks control the flow of money. Banks benefit from the flow of money through the interest they charge for the money they create and lend. When banks stop lending, money stops flowing, and the economy grinds to a halt. This is exactly what has happened. This is what is meant by the term “credit crunch.”

Lord Acton is best known for saying, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Banks have absolute power over the money system. Banks create and destroy money as they please. Our entire money system, which should exist for the benefit of the community, exists instead for banks to make loans and charge us interest. So long as the purpose of the money system is to allow banks to maximize their profits through the creation of debt and money, our economic decline will continue. Booms and busts are integral to a money system and an economy set up for the benefit of banks. The interests of the people and the interests of banks are in direct opposition to one another. Our way to prosperity is the elimination of the money and debt cycle banks inflict upon us.

Lord Acton also said, “The issue which has swept down the centuries, and must be fought sooner or later, is the people versus the banks.” We are living in interesting times, and this issue will finally have to be fought and resolved in our lifetime. Banks clearly recognize their interests and fight to protect them. The banks have been so successful at this that the government, through the Treasury Secretary, acts in their interest. We, like the banks, must also recognize our interests and fight to protect them. We can remain debt slaves to the banks, and continue to struggle just to survive or we can demand the government provide an honest money system, and thereby become economically free.

About the author Arian Forrest Nevin, J.D. is the author of National Economy: The Way to Abundance. National Economy presents an immediate solution the worldwide economic crisis. National Economy is the study of how a nation, rather than an individual, can be made wealthy. It explains how all manufacturing that has moved to other countries and all jobs that have been outsourced can be returned to America, how real wages can be dramatically increased, and how, at the same time, the people can have more leisure. His website is http://www.nationaleconomy.net

46 Of 50 USA States Could File Bankruptcy In 2009-2010

By freedomarizona.org

There is a high chance a majority of the States within the United States of America could file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. There are currently 46 states with high budget deficits, Arizona being one of them.

In fact, Jan Brewer, the newly appointed Governor of Arizona has a major crisis on her hands, one that Arizona and national media isn’t covering. The alarming news is the State of Arizona has 90 to 120 days before they completely run out of money. After that, all bills and tax refunds owed to the citizens will go unpaid.

Before Janet Napolitano left for her new Homeland secretary position, she had a stand-off with Arizona Treasurer Dean Martin. The AZ Treasurer forewarned Napolitano about Arizona’s financial crisis, but she refused to heed his words.

With neighboring California on the verge of bankruptcy this year, many States will follow in their steps.

Many States are already scurrying to cut unwanted costs, cut State-funded programs, raise taxes, not issue tax refunds to their citizens, and borrow money just to survive in 2009. Unfortunately, many banks — the same banks the Fed bailed out — are refusing to loan money to the States and their Treasury agencies.

The article, State Budget Troubles Worsen, at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities website is an excellent piece to read. It shows where each State currently stands in these challening economic times, and you see 46 of the 50 States are clearly in the financial red.

It’s very possible you’ll see the end of the United States as we know it. If the Fed doesn’t bailout the States when their cash dries up and the banks don’t loan them money, then our States will be left in financial ruin. This would be a tragic and unprecedented event never experienced in the United States.

No State has ever filed bankruptcy, but it could be coming to a State near you this year.

We are on the brink of something far worse than the Great Depression.

UPDATE: Check out the newly published article, Survivalism: How to Prepare for the Economic Collapse. There’s also a printable 4-page newsletter you can download and share with your friends, family, and co-workers. Take action and help spread the awareness of this life-threatening issue.

2012 and End of Days

World Political Map

Many analysts and experts are now saying that something BIG is coming… Greatest Depression , rising tensions in Middle East (Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine….) and South Asia (India –Pakistan), Russia is getting stronger and making strategic moves, China silently emerging as a serious threat to the Super Powers.. all fully prepared and loaded with Nukes for a possible War! Ready to take avenges (cold wars and WW2). The World War 2 ended by the Nuclear explosions ( Hiroshima and Nagasaki ) and now experts predicting that the WW3 (The Greatest War) will start by a Nuclear attack on Israel, Iran or Pakistan… near 2012 that will transit this Age/Civilization into the New World Age on 21st Dec 2012!

The majority population in the world is not involved in politics.. they are simple, innocent and common people.. this is not the matter of any country, any nation or any religion now… not any more! If this happens, each and every being on this earth will be affected!

We have launched “Project 2012″ to research this topic and investigate the facts in the light of current global geo-political developments , astrology readings and sacred prophecies about End of days/ Age transitions and try to authenticate the possibility of  a Nuclear War/ Armageddon before 2012. Considering the VERY LIMITED time left, we are also researching to understand how we can practically and quickly create low cost nuclear protection bunkers for civilians, preserve and store agri stuff, seeds, dry food, gold/silver ( start buying gold now!) and all other pertaining factors to survive after Nuclear Armageddon. Our objective is to educate people about what devastation a nuclear war could bring and how we can help each other to save ourselves from a possible attack…this is not just about 2012 prophecies .. but this makes perfect scene in the presences of thousands of nuclear and other weapons around the globe wholly for the purpose of Mass Genocide and Destruction! We will start publishing our research reports soon.

We all should gear up now and start thinking about our survival! There is no harm in keeping this thought in mind, live normal life but plan future more cleverly!

AMERICA’S COMING CIVIL ANGUISH By Br Nathanael Kapner

AMERICA’S COMING CIVIL ANGUISH

http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2008/12/15/america-coming-civil-anguish/

By Brother Nathanael Kapner

“TAX REVOLTS, JOB PROTESTS, FOOD RIOTS, SQUATTER REBELLIONS, will occur in America,” predicts Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute.

Celente, renowned for his accuracy in predicting geopolitical and economic events, emphasized once again on the nationally-syndicated Jeff Rense Program, see Rense.com, that by 2012, “the situation will be worse than the Great Depression.” The World Bank concurs with Celente, which on the same day as his interview with Rense, forecasted what it termed the “Great Depression II.”

With regard to a tax revolution, Celente says overtaxed Americans will either be fed up, not willing, or unable to pay their taxes which will ignite a battle against DC’s traitorous politicians to force the rollback of general taxes while demanding higher tax rates for those seen as paying too little.

Job riots coming to America are also a real possibility. With job losses mounting to monumental levels throughout the US, laid-off workers may soon take their frustrations to the streets. In fact, precursors of such rioting are already taking place…

JOB RIOTS COMING TO AMERICA?“A STANDOFF CONTINUES AT A CHICAGO FACTORY as workers protest layoffs after being told their plant was being shutdown,” as reported by ABC News on December 7, 2008.

Some 250 workers at Republic Windows and Doors stayed inside their Chicago plant, in shifts, even though the company has told them that – as of December 9 2008 – their jobs no longer exist. “Chicago is a working class town. We’re gonna stand together until we win this battle,” one union leader said. Members of other unions rallied outside of the plant in support of the Republic workers occupying the factory inside.

Workers blame Bank of America for losing their jobs when told that the factory was forced to close because Bank of America cut off financing. Key Jewish leaders are concerned that the workers’ anger towards Bank of America may signal a possible nationwide backlash against Jewish control of America’s banking and economic systems. As scandal after scandal unfolds, overloaded with Jewish names, there is fear that rank and file Americans will begin to see who the majority of their controllers ultimately are.

The outrage prompted politicians, including even now-disgraced Governor Blagojevich, to jump on the anti-Bank-of-America bandwagon calling for a halt in doing business with the bank. Fifteen Chicago City Council members, concurring with Blagojevich, said they will introduce an ordinance that will require Chicago to withdraw all funds from the Bank Of America.

A similar protest occurred on August 14 2008 in St Louis where several hundred Chrysler workers protested job layoffs. 500 terminated employees, including several busloads of supporters, gathered across from Chrysler’s headquarters in Auburn Hills, St Louis, protesting the closing of the Minivan plant and the eliminating of a large shift from a nearby Chrysler truck plant. About 2,500 jobs were affected. America’s true unemployment numbers are now probably in the 20% range and the anger and resentment from these millions of now nearly hopeless citizens is bound to erupt on a major scale sooner or later.

Worldwide, similar rage and unrest is being reported routinely. Recent protests in China, some violent, and various employment-related protests throughout Europe, may foreshadow what could soon take place in America.

One protest that turned violent in China occurred on November 27, 2008 and saw five hundred laid-off workers rioting in Guangdong province in southern China. The workers smashed police vehicles and stormed into offices, breaking windows & computer monitors at the Kai Da Toy Factory which makes Nerf toys for the US company Hasbro Inc.
(View More Articles Here Here Here & Here.)

Furthermore, one has only to look at events like the current Greek riots, and the airport takeover in Thailand, to get the bigger picture of what could transpire in the US from the economic catastrophe enveloping the entire planet.

TENT CITIES & MIDDLE CLASS HOMELESS THE BESIEGED AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS, millions of whom lost their jobs & homes during the recent meltdown in the US economy and mortgage market, is literally trying to survive in many cases.

Thousands are building “tent cities” and living in cars and RVs and garages throughout America. Entire families are sheltering in tents with their possessions crammed in with them or spread out on the ground outside. There is often no primary electricity, no plumbing, no drainage. Portable showers offer a chance to wash, but there is nowhere to prepare food, apart from makeshift tables in the open air, reports the BBC.

One such tent city is located forty miles east of Los Angeles on the outskirts of the middle-class suburb of Ontario. Set up in the summer of 2007 by 2 dozen victims of foreclosures, the LA tent city has grown to some 300 former LA homeowners. “It came down to “feeding my family or keeping the house,” one resident told reporters, “so I got rid of the house.”

The property he lost is nearby in Ontario, which offers a middle-class suburban dream – complete with green lawns, wide pavements, and garages big enough for two cars. Yet Ontario is in an area known as the “Inland Empire” where the rate of foreclosures is the third highest in the entire US.

Many other tent cities are springing up all across the US and North America with 5 major tent enclaves located in St Petersburg, FL, Phoenix AR, Seattle, WA, Las Vegas, NV, and Toronto, Canada. “This is just the tip of the iceberg,” reports Investors Insights.

Meanwhile, the US Congress continues to vote hundreds of billions for the US military and its continuing campaign of death and annihilation in Iraq and the burgeoning ‘war’ in Afghanistan. And let’s not forget the unstoppable flow of US tax dollars to that ‘democracy’ called Israel…now said by some to exceed one trillion dollars since the founding of that racist, apartheid ‘ally.’

While Americans are forced to live in cars and tents, our ‘loans’ to Israel (NEVER repaid) continue to fund the inhuman starvation and genocide of the Palestinian people. The current blockade of Gaza is a disgrace to the human race…but the world looks away and does nothing. Zionist Israel answers to no one.

To deal with the growing millions of unhappy, hungry and potentially unruly Americans, NorthCom command continues to ready its special operations under the heading of “Civil Disturbance Planning” against “civil unrest” in America…which could very well lead to massive martial law and full and open dictatorship.

6 Stages Of America’s Decline

By Br Nathanael Kapner

ZIONIST JEWS ARE BUSY COMPLETING the fall of America. The Zionist-Jewish banking cabal — led by the Rothschilds who own the Federal Reserve Bank, and, by extension, much of America — are hell-bent on creating a One World Government. Any sovereign “Christian nation,” such as America, (at least what it was historically), is an obstacle to their plans and must be brought down.
There are 6 stages engineered by Zionist Jews leading to America’s subjugation:

America’s Cultural Decline: This is being achieved by destroying and debasing our social, moral, and intellectual foundations via the Zionist owned & dominated mass media, the Internet, and through ever more toxic, corrupted government school and college curricula. The drowning of America with illegal aliens and the accompanying ‘multiculturalism’ – along with the promotion of the homosexual/lesbian agenda – are the finishing touches to a once robust and proud culture.

America’s Industrial Decline: This has been achieved through so-called ‘free’ and ‘open trade,’ (which was not in the purview of America’s founding fathers), the loss of manufacturing and production base & services, and the exporting of countless American jobs to Second and Third World countries.

America’s Financial Decline: This has been achieved through USURY and the Federal Reserve Bank’s outrageous, un-Constitutional total control of the US money supply. With little remaining industrial base and skyrocketing unemployment & foreclosure rates, America is literally insolvent.

The so-called bailout (theft) of about $2 trillion from taxpayers by a cowardly, treasonous Congress, is being used to primarily fund chosen Zionist Jewish banksters and their utterly corrupt institutions. The $1.5 quadrillion in worthless derivatives guarantees the full financial destruction of America.

America’s Political Decline: This has been achieved through decades of the most massive political fraud in the history of ‘representative government.’

Since the coup/murder of JFK, America has been played for a sucker by NWO Globalists, ultimately run by The City of London Jewish banking-families, who have brilliantly kept American voters chasing their tails and illusions of ‘change’ via a succession of sock-puppet ‘presidents’ for decades.

The Obama-Emanuel White House will complete the job of installing overt fascism in a once-free and formerly ‘United’ States.

America’s Dollar Decline: This has been achieved through a number of economic and financial manipulations. Expect hyperinflation to be next … accompanied by probable stagflation as consumer demands withers to severe lows.

America’s Influence Decline: This has been achieved easily through the Iraq and Afghan wars, the mass use of nuclear weapons & their depleted uranium residues, and the genocide of at least four million human beings since the first Gulf ‘War’ alone.

THESE 6 AREAS OF DECLINE will become more pronounced in 2009. This will pave the way for the end of America’s sovereignty & open the door for a North American Union in which the elitist bankers will conduct their ‘governance’ – the latest slogan of the One World Government boys.

Zionist Jews Are Now In Control Of America.
And The Planned Fall Of America Is In Full Swing.

IMF warns of economic riots, police ready for civil unrest

IMF warns of economic riots, police ready for civil unrest

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Pentagon resources and U.S. troops may be used if needed to quell protests and bank runs during an economic crisis, the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Institute reported.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” the War College study states.

Incidents of economic collapse, terrorism and disruption of legal order could require deployment of forces within the U.S., it said.

A “strategic shock” could require the nation to use “military force against hostile groups inside the United States.”

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has warned that advanced nations could face civil unrest during distressful economic times

“Social unrest may happen in many countries – including advanced economies” if the economic crises are not properly dealt with, Strauss-Kahn said.

“He added that violent protests could break out in countries worldwide if the financial system was not restructured to benefit everyone rather than a small elite,” London’s Guardian reported.

In a recession where consumer spending is plummeting, foreclosures are rampant, workers are losing jobs, credit is tight and markets are strained, some are warning about a worst-case scenario.

Last month, trends forecaster Gerald Celente told Fox News that America will morph into the first “undeveloped” nation of the world by 2012. He said there will be a tax revolution marked by “food riots, squatter rebellion, tax revolts and job marches.” He also said by 2012, the holidays will be more about getting food rather than gifts.

According to the Phoenix Business Journal, U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson considered the prospect of civil unrest while he pushed for September’s Wall Street bailout – even suggesting martial law might be essential.

Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Barack Obama’s pick for secretary of Homeland Security, would not provide comment to the Business Journal on the possibility of civil unrest during economic crisis. But state and local police indicated that they have trained for such an event.

“The Phoenix Police Department is not expecting any civil unrest at this time, but we always train to prepare for any civil unrest issue. We have a Tactical Response Unit that trains continually and has deployed on many occasions for any potential civil unrest issue,” Phoenix Police spokesman Andy Hill said.

“We have well established plans in place for such civil unrest,” Scottsdale Police spokesman Mark Clark told the Business Journal.

Maricopa County Sheriff Deputy Chief Dave Trombi concurred: “We’re prepared.”

Nick Dranias, director of constitutional government at the libertarian Goldwater Institute, told the Phoenix Business Journal declaration of martial law would allow U.S. armed forces to control civilian authorities.

While he said the Posse Comitatus Act limits the military’s role in domestic law enforcement, he referenced a 1994 U.S. Defense Department Directive (DODD 3025) that gives military commanders authority during domestic emergencies to “save lives, prevent suffering or mitigate great property damage,” according to the report.

“I don’t think it’s likely,” he said. “But it’s not impossible.”

Cost of shoring up U.S. banks may be in trillions

Cost of shoring up U.S. banks may be in trillions
By Emily Kaiser – Analysis
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The cost of restoring confidence in U.S. financial firms may reach $4 trillion if President Barack Obama moves ahead with a “bad bank” that buys up souring assets.
The figure far exceeds even the most pessimistic estimates of how great the loan losses might be because there is so much uncertainty about default rates, which means the government may need to take on a bigger chunk of bank debt to ease concerns.
Goldman Sachs economists said ideally the public sector would step in to remove the hardest-to-value assets, which would alleviate nagging worries about future losses and hopefully help get lending going again.
“Unfortunately, with an unprecedented meltdown in mortgage credit and a deep recession in the broader economy, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the value of almost every asset,” they wrote in a note to clients.
Obama and his economic advisers are expected to lay out their policy plan as early as next week. One idea that seems to be gaining traction is setting up an entity to buy troubled assets and hold them until they mature or resell them.
The hope is that once banks get rid of those bad loans, they can attract private investors, get back to the business of lending, and help revive the economy.
Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was considering all options to restart normal lending, but that no decisions had been made.
Goldman Sachs estimated that it would take on the order of $4 trillion to buy troubled mortgage and consumer debt. That number could shrink if the program were limited to only certain loans or banks, but it could also grow if other asset classes such as commercial real estate loans were included.
New York Sen. Charles Schumer has said that a number of experts thought that up to $4 trillion may be needed to buy the bad assets, an estimate that a Senate aide said was based on informal conversations with people in the industry.
The Wall Street Journal said government officials had discussed spending $1 trillion to $2 trillion to help restore banks to health, citing people familiar with the matter.
At $4 trillion, that would be the equivalent of nearly 1/3 of U.S. gross domestic product. If the government had to fund that amount by issuing additional debt, it would intensify investor concerns about massive supply scaring off demand.
Depending on how the plan is structured, the government may not have to put up the full amount, and since the majority of people are still paying their mortgages and credit card bills, there is a reasonable expectation that taxpayers would recoup a substantial portion of the cost.
However, the potential loss is huge, and if more public money is needed to boost capital even after the bad assets are removed, the total would undoubtedly climb.
The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that worldwide losses on U.S.-originated loans may hit $2.2 trillion, well above its October estimate of $1.4 trillion. It said banks in the United States, Europe and elsewhere probably needed to raise $500 billion to cover losses coming this year and next.

Why the Bailout Won’t Work. What’s so Bad about Deflation?

Why the Bailout Won’t Work
January 28, 2009 By Andrew Gordon

This article is brought to you by Investor’s Daily Edge a free daily investment newsletter that is delivered by email before the market opens. It’s published by Fourth Avenue Financial, a subsidiary of Early To Rise  (an affiliate company of Agora Publishing). In each weekday issue you’ll receive practical strategies for protecting your portfolio and multiplying your money. You’ll also learn about undiscovered opportunities in emerging sectors and markets, deeply discounted stocks, recommendations for bonds, cash, commodity and real estate investing, and top ETFs. To view archives or subscribe, visit Investor’s Daily Edge.
The economy is now staring eyeball-to-eyeball with an activist U.S. government. It will legislate, reform, supervise, bully, give out money like cotton candy and get concessions in return.

It will encourage technological development in environmental and other “future” industries. It will seek sources of energy other than the oil and gas we get from Mexico, Canada and OPEC. And it will put generous sums of money behind these initiatives.

The Obama government emphatically does not want banks to sit on the money they get from the government. Nor do they want it to go to shareholders in the form of dividend payments. This is why I look for more companies to cut their dividends and this plays perfectly into my Red Flag Insider strategy.

But wanting it and getting it are two different things. The financial crisis has spread to other countries, undermining economic growth everywhere and putting a dent into foreign exchange reserves. All the while, the printing presses of the world are working overtime.
The draining of money from the global economy combined with the wanton printing of money has turned into a high-stakes battle.

The crisis continues unabated. The money drain is winning so far.  And here are four reasons why it’ll keep on winning…
Consumer, construction and commercial real estate loans are getting worse.
The U.S. economic crisis has turned into a global crisis. And now the global dimensions of the crisis is boomeranging back on the U.S. economy and aggravating our problems even further.
Some overseas economies have been hit hard. But many developing countries have not yet felt the full brunt of the global crisis. They will this year, making the crisis truly global.
The negative feedback cycle, as Warren Buffet calls it, is still playing out. Consumers have lost faith in the economy, buying less. Companies are laying off and cutting back, expecting consumers to buy less. And banks are increasingly fearful, lending less to both individuals and businesses.
This is worth watching. With so many sectors suffering, the ones that get government sustenance are operating at a competitive advantage.

Fair or not, it gives you a way to invest.

Editor’s Note:
Recently I have heard several people suggest that a possible solution to the deflationary pressures so eloquently described by Andrew Gordon above is to simply give each adult citizen a million dollars.
Since there about 150 million adult citizens that would result in an influx of $150 Trillion dollars.  Most of these citizens would promptly pay off their debts such as mortgages which would reliquify the banks and wipe out the bad debts off their books.
As I’ve said before the purpose of a recession (or depression) is to wipe out bad debts and get the economy back on a solid footing.  (It also has a side benefit of wiping out the weak players and only letting the strong survive.)
So this scheme would serve the first purpose if not the second.  It seems the Government is determined to avoid the consequences of stupidity and bail out both the good and the bad anyway, so this wouldn’t be any worse.
Unfortunately, at this point the bank bailout has not wiped out any of the bad debt and has only served to line the pockets of the well connected.
At least the million dollar give away would wipe out the bad debts and would be equitable.
It would also be highly inflationary because it would inflate the money supply so massively.
According to Andy Gordon in The Inflation Beast Is About to be Let Out
“Global stock markets have lost roughly $32 trillion of market value since they peaked in October 2007.”
So $150 Trillion is about five times the amount needed to replace that.  But what if we could eliminate debt and return liquidity levels to 2007 levels?
Somewhere between $30 -$50 Trillion should do the job nicely, so what if the Government gave each citizen somewhere between $200,000 and $300,000?
Now of course that begs the question “Where would they get the money?”  But if the purpose of this exercise is simply to wipe out debt in a neat organized way, what we have done is transfer all these smaller debts into one big large debt which the FED can “monetize” (read write off) with the stroke of a pen.  Of course the risk is that the cash we are currently holding will become worthless as massive inflation takes hold. But at least everyone would have less debt staring them in the face.
All-in-all,  not a bad prospect for most Americans who are struggling under mountains of oppressive debt.
In a way this scheme reminds me of the Biblical “jubilee”.  In the Old Testament Moses was commanded to hold a jubilee every 50 years.  Jubilee would free all the slaves and wipe out all the debt so everyone was free to start over with a clean slate.
It seems one way or another, that the economy needs refreshing about every 50 years (either through a painful depression which forces creditors to write of bad debts or a celebratory Jubilee).  Perhaps God knew what he was talking about when He gave Moses that commandment!
Interestingly, Israel never held a Jubilee even though it was part of the Law.  Perhaps it is time for a modern version.
Tim McMahon, Editor
InflationData.com
What’s so Bad about Deflation?

January 2009
By Tim McMahon
The average annual inflation rate dropped again this month. At a monthly rate of -1.01% October’s drop was touted as “the largest monthly drop on a seasonally adjusted basis since 1947 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics first  started tracking seasonal adjustments” and it brought the annual inflation rate off its highs and down to a more reasonable 3.66%.
November’s monthly rate was almost twice as large at but it was hardly mentioned in the news.  This month the annual inflation rate has dropped down virtually zero–  0.09%  with a monthly drop slightly larger than the one two months ago.
Just a few months ago the annual inflation rate was 5.6% and now it is virtually zero.  The slightest decline in inflation this month will bring us into deflationary territory on an annual basis… the first time since 1955.
The specter of deflation has thrown the news media into a tizzy and the central banks are panicking and cranking up the printing presses.
Over the last six months we have actually seen true DEFLATION.  Prices have fallen 3.92% over the last six months.
Everyone likes price deflation because things are getting cheaper. November’s  -1.92% monthly deflation rate would result in a 23.04% decrease in prices if it continued for 11 more months.  It’s like seeing a 25% off sale on everything every time you went to the store!
In 19th century, (prior to government meddling in the money supply) deflation was the norm. As productivity increased, things got cheaper to produce, prices went down, wages went up and everyone was richer.
So price deflation is a good thing from a consumer’s point of view.  In times of high inflation (think back a few months) when gas prices are higher every time you go to the gas pump, you hear a lot of complaining.  Funny, I haven’t heard a single complaint about falling gas prices. If deflation was bad you’d think someone would be complaining.
Maybe it’s businesses that are hurt by deflation (falling prices)? True the amount they can charge is less because money is becoming more valuable but their costs for materials and labor are falling too. So as long as they remain efficient producers they will remain competitive.
Let’s look at the computer industry for a moment, they have been in a deflationary market for quite some time now, i.e. as they became more efficient they charged lower and lower prices.  Did this hurt the industry? No actually it was one of the only truly profitable industries during a highly inflationary period.  Look at Microsoft and Dell do we feel sorry for them?  I didn’t think so.
So deflationary forces don’t hurt industry. and yet the news media says we should worry about the “destructive forces of deflation”.
A perfect example is Martin Wolk of MSNBC, who says: “As prices keep going down, money grows more valuable”   . . .   Sounds good to me, but he says this is bad because it creates “an enormous disincentive for consumers and businesses to spend money. Economic activity slows, unemployment rises and demand continues to decline.”
So he is saying, it is bad because… as your money becomes more valuable you might be more likely to save it, instead of throwing it away every chance you get? And as you save it your purchasing power will actually increase as it will get more and more valuable. And this will hurt who?
According to Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, “It’s true that falling prices create incentives to save, but so long as the preference of consumers is to save instead of spend, that can only prepare the way for a future of economic growth. Consumers save for a reason, namely, to spend later”.
I seem to remember the media constantly decrying the low savings rate in this country which reduces our reserves and makes us less able to withstand an economic downturn.  Conversely, as the government increases the money supply, we see price inflation and the demand for money actually decreases, i.e. people don’t want to save it because if they do, it will buy less later. So the demand for goods increases and the demand for money decreases. But this is to the detriment of the consumer’s economic health and long term to the health of the country because people are encouraged to spend more than they would have under normal circumstances.
In a deflation the exact opposite happens,  people want to hold onto their money so the demand for money increases and the demand for goods decreases.  But this is just a short term effect, will they stop eating to keep their money? Of course not?  Will they reduce their lifestyle to keep more money in the bank? No.  Once they have a comfortable level of savings in the bank they will begin spending again, the only difference is that they will be able to get more for their money and actually have a savings cushion. The only thing they will reduce is their borrowing!  Who wants to borrow money if you have to pay it back with more valuable dollars? Better to save up your money, get more value for your money (and higher quality) and pay cash.
So a deflation actually promotes fiscal responsibility and higher quality. Hmm.
One problem for deflation is that it is tied very closely to the word depression in the minds of most Americans.  As a matter of fact, the majority of Americans think they are synonymous.  But that is hardly the case. One is the state of low economic growth and economic activity while the other is falling prices due to a decrease in the supply of money.
A depression as in “the Great Depression” is a major economic downturn, i.e. a recession on a massive scale.  It just so happens that  “the Great Depression” was also a time of deflation.  But deflation was not the cause of the depression actually it was the other way around,  depression caused the deflation.  See the chart in the upper right
What is worse than a deflationary depression?  An inflationary depression which happened around the world in Germany at the same time as our Great Depression.  Would you rather have a slow economy and falling consumer prices or a slow economy and rising consumer prices? Personally, if I had very little money I would prefer that it bought more (i.e. falling consumer prices).
The great economist Murray Rothbard said, “rather than a problem to be dreaded and combated, falling prices through increased production is a wonderful long-run tendency of untrammeled capitalism. The trend of the Industrial Revolution in the West was falling prices, which spread an increased standard of living to every person; falling costs, which maintained general profitability of business; and stable monetary wage rates—which reflected steadily increasing real wages in terms of purchasing power. This is a process to be hailed and welcomed rather than to be stamped out.”
One fear is that consumer price deflation is twin of falling asset prices.  The one price that people like to see increase is the price of their stock portfolio (i.e. their assets).  What we saw recently was massive asset deflation as the stock market crashed and everyone scrambled for liquidity.  This of course is another side of the increased demand for money.  As the supply of money (actually in this case it was the supply of credit) dried up people sold assets to raise liquidity (cash). Showing a classic sign of deflation i.e.  the demand for money increased while the demand for goods decreased.  But this is a short term result of a panic situation and a flight to quality, not the long term effect of deflation itself.
The main problem is the current system is a house of cards built on credit and the deflation is not the result of increased productivity but of decreased credit
So deflation helps consumers, businesses, savers, and the country as a whole… So who is fighting against deflation?
The answer is the central bank and bankers in general.  Why? Because in times of deflation their source of customers dries up.  You’d think banks would dislike inflation because they get paid back with cheaper dollars. But they factor that into their costs (i.e. they increase the interest rate they charge you to cover the cost of inflation).  So as long as inflation doesn’t get too high they see an increase in business and thus profitability  during moderate inflation.  But they can’t loan money when no one wants to borrow, so their profitability is zero. Thus the big push to “re-flate the economy.”
Today at the first whiff of deflation the  Central Bank (the FED) begins massive credit creation, and begins cranking up the printing presses.  They so worried about deflation that they have begun a policy of monetary expansion of historic proportions to correct it.
So the FED is fighting the implosion of credit by injecting massive amounts of money into the system rather than allowing the system to return to its natural state.
Robert Prechter of the Elliottwave Theorist is actually projecting that we will be entering a period of deflation.  To read his free report on on Why we are headed for Deflation Click Here.
Also see Elliotwave article Do You Know how to Preserve Your Wealth? for more information on investing for safety.
Olivier Garret, CEO of The Casey Report on the other hand believes that all of this massive inflation in the money supply will result in a hyperinflation.  See Why the Bailout Will Result in Hyperinflation.
For more information see:
The Primary Precondition of Deflation –What must happen for Deflation to take over.
What Causes Deflation?
Has this article been helpful? We appreciate your feedback.

Bailout=HyperInflation?

Editor’s Note-  In this article Olivier Garret, CEO of The Casey Report shows us the massive extent of the bailout compared to every major Government expenditure from the Revolutionary War and the Louisiana Purchase to the Iraq War in inflation adjusted terms and the results are pretty scary.

Based on the magnitude of the bailout expenditures it appears Hyperinflation is already baked into the cake. You thought WWII and Iraq were expensive?  You “ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The current bailout is larger than all the major government expenditures since the revolutionary war combined.

And lest you think that is because the bailout is comparing inflated dollars against more valuable (and thus smaller numbers) it isn’t.  This article uses all inflation adjusted numbers!

In three months, Paulson and Bernanke spent more than twice the cost of all of WWII.

Iraq? Vietnam? A drop in the bucket.

The Real Cost of the 2008 Bailout- Hyperinflation

By Olivier Garret, CEO,
The Casey Report
www.caseyresearch.com

It took the statisticians of the National Bureau of Economic Research almost a year to confirm what the rest of us already knew, that the US registered a significant decline in economic activity, thus officially entering a period of recession.

While I am pleased that the members of NBER take their duties seriously, thereby ensuring that they don’t leap to any hasty conclusions, I only wish that similar moderation could be displayed by their colleagues at the Fed and the Treasury.

Unfortunately, the facts prove otherwise.  Three months before the recession was officially declared, Paulson and Bernanke have embarked on the largest bailout program ever conceived with the blessing of a lame-duck president and a complicit Congress – a program which so far will cost taxpayers $8.5 trillion. This staggering sum encompasses:  loans backed by worthless assets ($2.3T), equity investments in bankrupt companies with negative net worth ($3.0T), and guarantees on crumbling derivatives and other hollow collateral ($3.2T).

Back in September I was stunned that Paulson was able to make his case and win the support of Congress for a $700 billion bailout package (more than the total war spending in Iraq to date).

How could Americans (or more accurately, their representatives) agree to give such a broad mandate with so few checks and balances?  Have we become completely numb?

While I realize that many of our compatriots have been running large credit card balances and interest-only mortgages with little thought as to how they would repay their debt, one would expect a little more restraint when dealing with the financial future of the largest economy in the world.

Operating under the assumption that our largest financial institutions are “too big to fail”, in the span of a few weeks we went from pledging to spend $1 trillion to $3 trillion – a commitment which then grew to $5 trillion before ballooning to a staggering $8.5 trillion.

At the rate we are going, we will be dealing with double digits – in trillions- before the end of the year.

And while all off that money is not yet spent, make no mistake – these are real commitments with serious liabilities attached to them.

I have heard the argument that an equity infusion is not the same as spending money.  While I would agree that in an arms-length transaction this might actually be the case, our government is definitely paying a large premium.  What is the real value of Citicorp or AIG?  Since they are quasi-bankrupt (and would be totally bankrupt without massive injections from the Fed), a reasonable businessperson might pay a token price for their equity and the assumption of their enormous liabilities.  Before doing so however, a buyer would have to see some significant value in buying these entities as a continuing business.  In most cases, a buyer would not want to assume the company’s liabilities but would prefer to buy selective unencumbered assets in a bankruptcy proceeding.  Any money our government pays above what a reasonable person would pay in an arms-length transaction is real spending and should more accurately be called a grant.

While defenders of the too-big-to-fail policies argue that providing guarantees is not the same as granting money, the reality is that these guarantees are necessary to prevent the collapse of financial institutions currently lacking the necessary collateral to meet their loan covenants.  Should their loans be called, we could actually find out the real value of their assets.  The fact is that in-spite of Paulson’s and Bernanke’s efforts, deleveraging is already happening.  Although at a slower pace, one asset class after another is being adjusted down towards its intrinsic value, which is usually not much.  Make no mistake; many of these guarantees will eventually be called in by lenders.  In due time, unless our government is able to inflates its way out of this bottomless pit, it will have to honor most of these guarantees.

So how does $8.5 trillion dollars compare with the cost of some of the major conflicts and programs initiated by the US government since its inception?  To try and grasp the enormity of this figure, let’s look at some other financial commitments undertaken by our government in the past:

As illustrated above, you can see that in today’s dollars, we have already committed to spending levels that surpass the cumulative cost of all of the major wars and government initiatives since the American Revolution.

Recently, the Congressional Research Service estimated the cost of all of the major wars our country has fought in 2008 dollars.  The chart above shows that the entire cost of WWII over four to five years was less than half the current pledges made by Paulson and Bernanke in the last three months!

In spite of years of conflict, the Vietnam and the Iraq wars have each cost less than the bailout package that was approved by Congress in two weeks.   The Civil War that devastated our country had a total price tag (for both the Union and Confederacy) of $60.4 billion, while the Revolutionary War was fought for a mere $1.8 billion.

In its fifty or so years of existence, NASA has only managed to spend $885 billion – a figure which got us to the moon and beyond.

The New Deal had a price tag of only $500 billion.  The Marshall Plan that enabled the reconstruction of Europe following WWII for $13 billion, comes out to approximately $125 billion in 2008 dollars.  The cost of fixing the S&L crisis was $235 billion.

The best deal ever for a government program was the Louisiana Purchase, a deal with the French that gave us 23% of the surface of today’s US for only $15 million ($284 million in today’s dollars).  Why couldn’t Paulson and Bernanke display the financial acumen of a Thomas Jefferson?

How will our country repay its debts?   The current bailout represents…

62% of our GDP.  Our current deficit of almost $11 trillion may exceed our GDP next year.

Recently the Treasury has been able to place new debt; investors have liquidated equities and bonds and sought refuge in the relative safety of the dollar and government bonds.

As we move forward however, our government will need to attract trillions of dollars annually to fund its programs and commitments.  The foreigners who have financed our irresponsible spending for many years will no longer be able to afford it, let alone finance more of our reckless behavior.

As a matter of fact, several countries have already announced their own bailout packages to prop up their domestic economy.  And, unlike during WWII, when Americans invested their savings to support the war effort and fund our government’s deficit, our citizens are in debt themselves with no savings left to invest.

In the near future, the Fed will have no choice but to turn on the printing presses and start operating them around the clock to create the money that can’t be raised in the capital market.

These actions will lead to a significant debasement of the dollar and a major appreciation of gold and all commodities (real assets).

Once this inflationary cycle starts, foreigners will realize that their investments in T-bills are depreciating rapidly.  There will be a massive exodus that will put more pressure on the dollar and on interest rates.  Our weakened US economy will be faced with the rising cost of capital and a painful period of stagflation.  Trillions of dollars will have been wasted.  Our government will have mortgaged America and the ensuing debt will have to be paid by future generations.

Abortions Cost Economy $35 Trillion Since 1970 in Lost Productivity

Abortions Cost Economy $35 Trillion Since 1970 in Lost Productivity

by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
October 13, 2008

Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — A researcher who has spent over a decade
examining the economic impact of abortion finds that the approximately 50,5
million abortions in the U.S. since 1970 have cost the American economy $35
trillion. That comes in the form of lost productivity by having fewer
workers contributing to society.

Those contributions also come in the form of taxpayers contributing to
state, federal and local governments that would have had more funds to pay
teachers, offer health care benefits or put more police on the streets.

The cost to the economy also includes the lost support for the social
security system, which experts say still presents a host of challenges for
the future and questions about whether younger Americans will receive
anything from it.

Dennis Howard, the president of the pro-life group Movement for a Better
America, has researched the economic impact of abortion since 1995.

“We found that the 50.5 million surgical abortions since 1970 have cost the
U.S. an astonishing $35 trillion dollars,” in lost Gross Domestic Product,
he told LifeNews.com on Monday. “However, if you include all the babies lost
to IUDs, RU-486, sterilization, and abortifacients, the number climbs to $70
trillion.”

“Aggressive population control has exacted a huge price in future economic
growth that can never be recovered,” he told LifeNews.com.

Howard indicates the estimates are based on GDP per capita per year times
the cumulative number of abortions since 1970.

He said that is a more conservative approach than that used by government
agencies, such as the EPA — which employs an “estimated statistical life”
as a benchmark for its cost/benefit analyses for new regulations.

A typical ESL averages about $7.8 million per human life and Howard says
using that as a standard shows the cost for all abortions to date would be
more than 11 times his estimate, or an excess of $390 trillion.

The question of the economic impact of abortion has come up before.

Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute said last year
that “When you look at the projections that show our population aging
rapidly over the next few decades, when you see our economy and government
programs such as Social Security risking bankruptcy, you can see that the
United States’ annual 0.9% population growth rate is not enough.”
http://www.lifenews.com/nat2662.html

Howard has been warning since 1997 that the US faced a major financial
crisis based on ongoing demographic trends.

In 1997, he wrote: “I see little hope that we can avoid an eventual crash on

Wall Street that will make the 1930′s looking like cashing in your cards
after a bad game of Monopoly.”

He cites the Soviet Union as an example of a nation that allowed unlimited
abortions to wreck its economy.

“The main reason for their collapse was internal – 300 abortions for every
100 live birth,” he said. “Right now, there are not enough younger women to
reverse their population decline. They are expected to lose another 40
million people between now and 2050.”

http://www.lifenews.com

–
J Young
Jvisi…@live.com
Owner of Eric F Berg aka ‘LC’

* here’s the entire collection of efber…@hotmail.com

http://tiny.cc/6hl5F

The Economic Cost of Unions: $50 Trillion

The Economic Cost of Unions: $50 Trillion

Daily Policy Digest Economic Issues / Unions and Productivity Friday, February 07, 2003

While there are no doubt many individual members of labor unions who feel they have benefited from collective bargaining, the overall evidence is overwhelming that labor unions in contemporary America have had harmful aggregate effects on the economy. The economic cost of unions (determined by combining lost income and output over the period 1947 to 2000) exceeds $50 trillion, according to estimates by economists Richard K. Vedder and Lowell E. Gallaway. Unionization lowers incomes for all, albeit more in the relatively higher income states that on average have higher levels of unionization. A state with a 10 percent unionized work force can expect a 0.7 percent increase in its unemployment rate. For each four additional workers who become unionized, one less person works. In the final years of the 1990s, the decline in union density in the private sector has been sharp, adding to the vitality of the economy at the beginning of the new century. As a result, there has been renewed economic growth and a rising proportion of the working age population that actually works. Source: Richard K. Vedder and Lowell E. Gallaway, “Do Unions Help the Economy? The Economic Effects of Labor Unions Revisited,” Government Union Review, Volume 20, Number 4, December 2002, Public Service Research Foundation. For more on Unions and Productivity http://www.ncpa.org/iss/eco/

Racial IQ Differences – Hammer Finally Drops

January 5, 2009 by guywhite

Looks like we finally have the definitive evidence race realists always knew scientists will find, and race deniers feared.

The moment the anti-racists and egalitarians have dreaded has now arrived. In September, University of Chicago geneticists published data in the prestigious journal Science that links two sets of genetic variations (alleles) to brain size, race, and spurts in human evolution. In particular, these genetic variations — arguably responsible for greater intelligence — were relatively common in Europe and Asia, but markedly less common in sub-Saharan Africa. Previously, the same researchers had shown these variations to be much more frequent in man than in other mammals, though our closest relatives, the chimpanzees, showed levels that suggest some evolution in the direction of humans.
Pygmies
Microcephalin haplogroup
D is rare in Pygmies.

This excellent new Chicago work has been carried out under the direction of a young Chinese, Dr. Bruce Lahn. His team had studied the prevalence of variants of two genes that are disabled or damaged in human cases of severe microcephaly, in which the brain develops to only 30 percent its normal size. The fact that they are damaged in microcephalics suggests they are necessary for normal brain growth.

Dr. Lahn’s researchers examined the DNA of 1,184 people around the world — though not in racially mixed areas like North America, Russia and Australia. They estimated that one undamaged variation, microcephalin haplogroup D (let us call it variation one, or V1) first appeared around 40,000 BC and has since spread to some 70 percent of humans. It is more common in Europe, Asia, South America and Latin America than in black Africa. At three percent, it is especially infrequent in Congo pygmies, whom black Africans commonly regard as inferior.

A second variant of the gene, abnormal spindle-like microcephaly-associatedhaplogroup D (let us call it V2), arrived more recently, around 6,000 BC, and has since spread to 30 percent of humans. It is most common in Europe and the Middle East, somewhat less common in Asia, and distinctly rare in black Africa.

Dr. Lahn and colleagues noted that the arrival of V1 coincided roughly with the first signs of human habitation and agriculture; V2 appeared about the time of the first cities and the development of written language. The Chicago team believes these new alleles gave rise to these important developments, and that their possessors reproduced quickly by occupying the new niches offered by agriculture and written language.

Geneticists can estimate the age of an allele by observing the number of mutations found in it and calculating back to when the allele first appeared in the most recent common ancestor. Mutations arise at predictable rates, and are considered to be a reasonably accurate measure of relatively short periods of evolution. It is by this method that scientists estimate it has been five to six million years since humans and chimpanzee had a common ancestor.
Bruce Lahn
Bruce Lahn.

Needless to say, the Chicago scientists went to great pains not to pose too great a challenge to modern sensitivities about race and genes. At their press conference, they insisted there was “not necessarily” a connection between these gene variations and brain size. However, they found that sub-Saharan blacks were the most distinct of the racial groups they studied, in that they had a markedly lower frequency of both variants. This is consistent with the distinct black African profile of smaller brains and lower IQ.

The Chicago results are exactly what we would expect from the work of Professor Phil Rushton of University of Western Ontario, who has used modern brain scanning methods to establish a correlation as high as .40 between brain size and IQ. Needless to say, the Chicago researchers could not mention Prof. Rushton’s name for fear of jeopardizing further funding. Some suspect they already have data in the pipeline linking these genetic variations directly to IQ, and that when they hold another press conference to announce these findings they want someone to attend.

Naturally, the authors wrote only of “geographical” and not of racial differences in the frequency of these alleles, but no one is fooled by this piety. They assured the press that their V work does not mean black Africans have a low IQ or any other disadvantage. At the same time, Dr. Lahn implied the opposite when he volunteered that Africans could well turn out to be blessed with still other variations that might be shown one day to give them advantages of their own. In other words, it may have been purely by accident that the advantage in Europeans and Asians had come to light first.

The findings came hard on the heels of work in Brisbane by Professor Nick Martin, who has found sizeable IQ differences within families associated with variations in the DNA on chromosomes 2 and 6. His work did not look for race differences in the distribution of these variations, but that would be an obvious area of research. At the same time, the October 24 issue of New York Magazine devoted eight pages to Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending’s theory that high rates of sphingolipid genetic diseases like Tay-Sachs in Ashkenazi Jews may be associated with a substantial advantage in IQ (their work originally appeared in the June issue of the British Journal of Biosocial Science).

The media and even the scientists themselves can hedge and fudge all they like, but their favorite “post-modern” pretense that there is no such thing as race is looking sillier all the time. The West’s anti-racists have succeeded in suppressing most references to the g (general intelligence) factor and the London School that discovered and developed the concept, but they now face an assault from an unexpected quarter. Dr. Bruce Lahn may be more the diplomat than one normally finds in nature vs. nurture debates, but he got his first taste of dissent as a student rebel in his home town of Peking during the Tianenmen Square demonstrations. This suggests he has a strong dislike for Communism’s tyrannical and useless environmentalism, and that he may have principles that will soon see him linked to his natural allies in the London School.

http://whitelocust.wordpress.com/2008/12/27/race-realism-takes-a-step-forward-more-strong-evidence-for-the-genetics-of-intelligence/

Numbers Not Fit To Print: What I Said That Upset The New York Times

By Peter Brimelow

I felt a pang when I saw in Marcus Epstein’s recent article that I “may not be quite as ‘respectable’” as Bay Buchanan and Jim Pinkerton, my co-panelists at last week’s American Cause press conference—particularly as I have been laboring continuously in the all-too-respectable if BORING field of financial journalism for the best part of forty years.

But I didn’t edit it out. As Chairman Mao said, let a hundred flowers bloom! Diversity is Strength!

And it is true that at VDARE.COM is prepared to publish arguments that go a lot further than many other immigration patriots.

The New York Times, in its blog item clumsily attempting to defend its February 1 editorial attacking us, to which it admitted reaction had been “furious”, harrumphed that

“The harsh Republican line on immigration is usually depicted as motivated by concern about jobs, national security, drugs or terrorism. But that tune has a persistent undercurrent of fretfulness about race, culture and ethnicity.”

This was not the least of the NYT’s errors. At VDARE.COM, we are indeed interested in jobs, national security, drugs etc. etc.—that is, we continue to make the “broad case” against immigration that FAIR’s Ira Mehlman noted in his review of my book Alien Nation back in 1994. But race, culture and ethnicity are no mere “undercurrent” here: they are an overcurrent, if not a tsunami.

And why not? Does anyone seriously argue (except inside the Beltway) that they’re not important?

You could read the NYT’s pieces without any idea of what we actually said at the American Cause conference. This is the News that was not Fit To Print, to adapt the famous NYT motto: Marcus talked about his analysis of the 2008 House races, concluding that immigration was mostly either a non-issue or (incredibly) stolen from the GOP candidates by “Lou Dobbs Democrats”. Jim Pinkerton talked about immigration and border security. I talked about…numbers.

Of course, I realize that in itself won’t save me from the charge of “hate speech”. Joe Guzzardi recently noted the phenomenon of “hate facts”— things that are true but too politically incorrect to mention. No doubt there are “hate numbers” too.

But the numbers are compelling. We at VDARE.COM think that immigration is steadily weakening the GOP (and America). In the long term, only an immigration cut-off will save it. But we also think that, in the short and medium term, the GOP could easily recoup its position by making a more effective appeal to its base: white Americans. Patriotic immigration reform is the most effective way to do this.

Incidentally, as it happens, it’s also a surprisingly effective way of appealing to minorities too. Immigration is not popular with them either, probably because they’re on the front line. For example, in 2004 the anti-illegal alien Proposition 200 in Arizona got 47% of the Hispanic vote and ran well ahead of George W. Bush.

In 1997, Ed Rubenstein and I wrote a National Review cover story, Electing A New People, basically making three points:

1] a static point: in American politics, race is destiny—the races vote systematically differently and these differences are very slow to change;

2] a dynamic point: the major parties’ share of the overall vote sways back and forth according to political conditions, and the proportion they get of each race’s vote sways back and forth in parallel (but the differences between the races remain roughly the same);

3] an immigration point: immigration policy is shifting America’s racial balance toward minorities, and therefore the ability of the Republican Party to win national elections is being steadily reduced.

We updated the article in 2000 for the Hudson Institute’s American Outlook magazine.

Subsequently, Steve Sailer has been making a corollary point on VDARE.COM: the most practical electoral strategy for the GOP is not outreach, but inreach—to access more fully its white base—what we call the “Sailer Strategy“.

In 2004, despite all the hypocritical pandering rhetoric, this is in effect how Bush/ Rove won, relying on the patriotic appeal of the Iraq War. In 2008, with the war still dragging on and the economy collapsing, it wasn’t enough. But McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate did get him briefly ahead in the polls precisely because it motivated the GOP base.

In 2008, according to CNN’s exit polls, whites cast 74% of the presidential ballots, blacks 13%, Latinos 9%, others 5%.

Right here, you can see why these numbers aren’t Fit To Print. Whites are still by far the largest block of voters—even in a year when their turnout was widely reported to be down. Relatively small shifts in the white vote swamp relatively large shifts in the minority vote (assuming these occur, which they do not) in absolute terms. Immigration is changing this, but quite slowly.

In other words, the conventional wisdom that the GOP can only survive if it gets more minority votes is innumerate—it is made by people who can’t (or won’t) count.

Although you wouldn’t know it from the MSM, McCain easily won the white vote—what would until the 1960s would have been called the “American” vote—55%-43%. This is actually quite a significant achievement, considering the disaster of the Bush Presidency.

I asked Ed to take this year’s result, the share of the different racial groups that McCain got in 2008, and project it backwards, calculating what McCain’s share of the overall popular vote would have been if adjusted for the racial balance that in fact existed in the U.S. at the time of each Presidential election.

The result: McCain would have won a majority of the overall popular vote as recently as 1976.

I remember 1976. Jimmy Carter beat Jerry Ford. This analysis suggests that McCain ran slightly better than Ford (although of course much worse than Reagan in 1984—he got 64% of the white vote). But McCain still didn’t win the Presidency in 2008, because public policy (which he stupidly supported) had shifted the racial balance against him.

To give an idea of what could be done: in Alabama, whites cast only 65% of the presidential votes—but went for McCain 88%-10%. He carried the state in a landslide.

(The 2008 exit polls have lots of other interesting details. For example, white Protestants, still 42% of the electorate, voted 65%-34% for McCain. White Catholics, 19% of the electorate, voted 52%-47% for McCain. Jews, 2% of the electorate, voted 16%-83% for Obama. Non-whites voted 18%-79% for Obama. These divisions are so deep and systemic that you have to wonder whether the U.S. is still a nation, with a common culture, or whether it has become a sort of heterogeneous empire. You also have to wonder at a situation where white Protestants, who after all invented the U.S., have so completely lost control of the national government.)

Of course, you won’t read anything about this in the new, post-purge National Review, where they are wittering wonkishly about the “middle class” and even (and to think they once opposed Nelson Rockefeller) the “center”.

But while it may not be “respectable”, the fact remains that what the New York Times calls “race, culture and ethnicity” is the most powerful way to analyze American politics. And the analysis suggests that the Democrats are in a precarious position: they are a coalition of minorities and must at all costs prevent America’s majority from uniting. Hence the NYT’s hysteria.

Moral for the GOP: Stop. Immigration. Now. Deport. Illegals. Now. Reform the Citizen Child Clause. Now.

Or when you next have the chance

At VDARE.COM, we don’t support any political party and certainly have no reason to like the Bush-McCain-Steele Republican Party. Moreover, I’ve been making this argument for more than a decade, to absolutely no effect.

But the symbol of the GOP is the elephant. Those who have ears to hear, let them hear.

China fears major crisis, as economy continues to crash

China fears major crisis, as economy continues to crash

A new study shows 8% unemployment, with 20 million migrants unemployed. This news is much worse than expected, and represents a threat to social stability, according to Chinese officials.

Collapsing corporate profits in China (Source: WSJ)

This comes at the same time that other economic statistics continue to indicate a huge shakeout in China’s economic is occurring.

In particular, corporate profit in China appears to be rapidly crashing. Profits of industrial companies plunged 27% in the three months to November, according to official figures. Industries related to exports are particularly hard hit.

In another dramatic development, Chinese citizens seem increasingly turning away from investment in China, and using what money they have to invest in (of all places) America – American products and securities. Total outflows in the fourth quarter were as much as $240 billion.

The sharp increase in unemployment estimates for migrant workers was revealed at a press conference held by Chen Xiwen of China’s Central Finance and Economic Leading Group. Here’s a translation of what he said, from Victor Shih of RGE Monitor:

Chen Xiwen: “Not long ago, the Ministry of Agriculture organized a survey which drew samples from 150 villages located in 15 provinces which exported more rural labor. The sample focused on the approximately 38.5% of rural labor who returned home before the lunar new year. Of those who returned home, some 60.4% were home on regular visits to their family. That is to say that their jobs in the cities are still preserved, and they will return to their jobs after the holiday. Of those who returned home, 39.6% of the respondents reported that they lost their jobs or have not found a job, thus returning home. According to these figures, of the 130 million rural labor who are working elsewhere, we think 15.3% in total have lost their jobs or have not found employment (in cities). According to the ratio of 15.3%, we can calculate that out of the 130 million of rural labor working elsewhere, approximately 20 million of them have lost their jobs or have not found employment due to economic unwellness.”

Shih analyzes this further by adding 15 million or so in the registered urban unemployed (not migrant workers, but residents in major cities), and reaches a total of 37 million unemployed, or over 8% of the total work force of 430 million.

This is extremely high for China, higher than at any time since the end of China’s crisis civil war, the Communist Revolution that climaxed in 1949. China depends on low unemployment to maintain social stability.

As I wrote in 2005, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is approaching a major civil war. This conclusion was based on a variety of factors, including the increasing number of mass riots, a huge migrant worker population, big income disparities, and an unraveling of the social structure.

The Chinese authorities themselves are well aware of this. As I’ve said many times, the Beijing government is among the most paranoid in the world, afraid of their own population.

China has tens of thousands of “mass incidents” each year. In a typical incident, someone accidentally bumps into somebody on the street in a shopping area. Or, even worse, somebody bumps into somebody’s wife. An argument ensues, and other people join the fray and take sides, especially if the one of the people is a peasant and the other is a member of China’s élite, a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Soon, people start using their cell phones to call other people, and the altercation may grow into a riot with thousands of people, or more.

If even one incident like this happened in the US, it would be worldwide news. But in China, there are hundreds of “mass incidents” in the country EVERY DAY. Some are small, involving only a few people, while others are major riots.

The growing global financial crisis is causing the worst possible scenario for the Beijing government. China’s crisis wars have always been major rebellions — the White Lotus rebellion (1795-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1871), and Mao Zedong’s Communist Revolution (1934-1949). Chinese authorities are well aware that a similar rebellion could flare up at any time.

“Without doubt, we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and government,” Huang Huo, a reporter for the state-run New China News Agency, warned this month. The Chinese have special security forces trained to handle these “mass incidents,” as long as they’re relatively small. But the greatest concern, in the current financial climate, is that the small incidents could coalesce into a “national-level event” that would bring about civil war.

I’ve written about this many, many times, and as far as I know, this web site is the only one that’s predicting a China civil war with absolute certainty. Indeed, the only way to make such a prediction is by means of generational analysis.

So I was really startled to read Yves Smith’s blog Naked Capitalism and see the following indignant statement:

“Readers have taken to projecting … that I am predicting collapse or a violent overthrow of the Chinese government. I have never said any such thing.It is a demonstration of a tendency I find troubling: engaging in black and white thinking. This is not an either/or.”

As I said, I’ve never seen any blog or web site, other than this one, making such a prediction. This web site is so different from the Naked Capitalism blog that it’s hard to believe that anyone could confuse them, but it appears that’s what happened.

It’s worth quoting some more of Smith’s indignant statement, because it provides insight into how people think about this issue:

“Plenty of countries have experienced a good deal of internal dissent. Look at the US in the 60s, with riots, firebomings, and large scale demonstrations, in a country with no tradition of radical action by the middle class, and a much less highly developed police/surveillance apparatus than we have now. Did anyone think the government here would be overthrown? Perhaps a hopeful few on the radical left, but they’d have little company. Yet that level of violence was still unsettling and did put pressure on the government.”

Anyone familiar with generational theory would know that this comparison makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. During the 1960s, America was in a generational Awakening era, a time when massive protests and demonstrations are common, but a crisis civil war is impossible. This is how I knew, for example, that the Iraq “civil war” that everyone was talking about would have to fizzle out, and it did, because Iraq is today in a generational Awakening era.

(See “Iraq Today vs 1960s America,” and “Basics of Generational Dynamics.”)

But China is in a generational Crisis era, meaning that the country is “attracted toward” war, so the current situation is not at all incomparable to America in the 1960s. A more valid comparison would be to America’s civil war in the 1860s.

“Although China has had violent revolution, it has no organized anti-government movement at present, a very large army, and little tolerance of opposition. The discontent now is directed first against the corporations that shuttered their operations, second against provincial governments (this is more a simmering problem of long-standing corruption that may find a new hook with increasing demands for services, such as they are, driven by the migration back to the countryside).”

This is completely untrue. There is a huge anti-government movement, the Falun Gong movement, which China has outlawed. Furthermore, the reason that China spends such huge sums of money censoring the Internet is because of fears of a “nationwide event,” set up by internet communications.

(See “List of major Generational Dynamics predictions” for more information about Generational Dynamics predictions.)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is headed for a civil war with absolute certainty, but that’s not all.

One of the most important stories of the decade, in my opinion, was the anti-Japan rioting in China in 2005. The authorities diverted anti-party sentiment at the time, and changed it to anti-Japan sentiment. So a civil war in China would almost certainly lead quickly to a world war. And with China’s economy crashing rapidly, the time may not be too far off.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (4-Feb-2009) Permanent Link

Obama’s Press Office Needs Diversity

Roland S. Martin, CNN, February 4, 2009

{snip}

I got an e-mail Tuesday listing all of the various press folks and contact information, and hardly any African-Americans or Hispanics were listed. Granted, the deputy press secretary is African-American and the director of broadcast media is Hispanic. That’s not sufficient.

Unfortunately, this shouldn’t come as a shock, because the campaign press staff of then-Sen. Barack Obama was just as weak on diversity.

Just because there is a black president doesn’t mean that issues like diversity should be cast aside. President Obama should be held to the same standard when it comes to this issue as any other occupier of that office. I am a former national board member of the National Association of Black Journalists, and my support for diversity never wavers, no matter who is running the show.

One of the reasons this is important is because just like in the media, where there are bigger and better things awaiting the White House correspondent, a position in the White House press office positions someone for the next level.

When the press secretary leaves, the president normally chooses the next one from those ranks. We’ve never seen a black or Hispanic press secretary standing at the podium each day giving daily briefings, and when there are none on the bench, well, that streak will continue.

Looking at the roster of other offices, I don’t believe there’s even one African-American or Hispanic who is the primary spokesman or number two at any of the major departments, such as Treasury, State, and Justice.

These coveted positions often lead to the top jobs in communications firms in Washington and around the country, and even junior staffers now are tapped for senior jobs in the next administration (Look at how many junior staffers on President Bill Clinton’s team are now senior staffers for President Barack Obama).

{snip}

The election of President Barack Obama means that one barrier, albeit a major one, has been torn down. But that doesn’t mean that others don’t need to come tumbling down as well. For those groups that have often been marginalized, it’s important to have the doors of opportunity opened.

If diversity truly matters, then it must be emphasized and realized top down. The company leaders in corporate diversity got there because the CEO made it clear that it mattered, and they demanded their underlings make it a reality.

{snip}

If change is truly what this president wants to bring to bear, let’s see change across the board. He should make it clear that the clubby atmosphere in Washington of hire-who-you-know has gone out the window, and that window has been opened up for the next generation of talented individuals. The power positions matter a lot in the nation’s capital, and when you have a seat at the table, that’s what counts.

{snip}

I’ve been told that not all hiring has been completed in the White House press office and in other areas. OK, fine. But the A-team has clearly been hired, and that means anyone else coming in the door is on the B-team. And that just won’t cut it.

{snip}

Roland S. Martin

Original article

(Posted on February 4, 2009)

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Comments

“The election of President Barack Obama means that one barrier, albeit a major one, has been torn down.”

What? So a Black now occupies the most exclusive office in the world, but that isn’t enough—they skipped over all the other positions lower than that in the process. Yes, we have a Black president, but why hasn’t there ever been a Black vice president? Racism!

I’m all for giving undeserving Blacks every position in the Cabinet and let the world see how truly incompetent they are at running this country. Talk about a comedy of errors that would be better than Hollywood could dream up. I never watch T.V., but I’d have it on 24/7 if our country were run at the highest levels by only Blacks. Now that’s entertainment.

Posted by Anonymous at 5:53 PM on February 4

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Of course, the issue of whether any blacks are even qualified to fill any of these positions never enters into the equation. For Roland, it’s simply a quotas game — qualifications, talent and experience be damned. After all, it’s worked for Roland. One just has to listen to the incoherent and belligerent nonsense that spews out of his mouth for two seconds to realize the only reason CNN has him on the air is because he’s black.

Posted by Anonymous at 5:53 PM on February 4

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I propose that all whites who are in journalism, people who write blogs, and whites in general conversation, should start substituting the word diversity, wherever it is used for non-whites.

For example: job opening at X corporation, apply tday, we believe in a non-white(instead of diverse) work force.

Posted by Bobby at 5:59 PM on February 4

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“Agitate! Agitate! Agitate!” Frederick Douglass

It’s funny but I hear blacks complain just as much about the same intractable problems when they get their people into office or positions of influence.

Having blacks in power doesn’t seem to change anything in the black community for the better.

Posted by sbuffalonative at 6:06 PM on February 4

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I am a former national board member of the National Association of Black Journalists, and my support for diversity never wavers, no matter who is running the show.

I believe fellow American Renaissance reader sbuffalonative sums this blatant hypocrisy best with his succinct Black Golden Rule:
* That which is white must be made black
* That which is black must be kept black

Looking at the roster of other offices, I don’t believe there’s even one African-American or Hispanic who is the primary spokesman or number two at any of the major departments, such as Treasury, State, and Justice.

The white liberals that insisted on “diversifying the American population” by massive non-white immigration are in for a rude shock in the next 4 years, as they are “diversified” out of employment.

If diversity truly matters, then it must be emphasized and realized top down. The company leaders in corporate diversity got there because the CEO made it clear that it mattered, and they demanded their underlings make it a reality.

And yet again, a black person subtly admits that “diversity” and meritocracy are largely mutually exclusive – the same reason why you’ll rarely see 60+ year old athletes compared to their percentage of the population, black golfers compared to their percentage of the population etc.
But the greater question here is what’s so good about “diversity”, or enforcing it?

If the Chinese invaded the U.S. and your company was fighting a similiar-sized Chinese one would you rather be serving under the Chinese commander that clawed his way to his current position, or a female/Hispanic/black commander that had been promoted as there “were’nt enough officers with ‘different plumbing’/brown faces/black faces”?

Yet again, blacks are openly clamouring for the economic dispossession of whites – and all I can hear is crickets chirping…

Posted by Obscuratus at 6:12 PM on February 4

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What is this Roland Martin complaining about? Does he want a job in the White House? I doesn’t seem to me that he does, because he’s probably making more at the Chicken Noodle than he would be anywhere else.

Posted by Question Diversity at 6:23 PM on February 4

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Has anyone actually listened to this guy for more than 30 seconds? he offers zero insight and analysis. No wonder his support diversity never wavers: without it, he’d be out of work.

Posted by Joe at 6:55 PM on February 4

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“that window has been opened up for the next generation of talented individuals.”

in other words “black people”. Also our fabled article mentions “change across the board”, again- more black people. i still cant figure our why they think ‘diversity’ means white people giving up everything. hey lets give the blacks and latinos the USA and maybe all us whites can go to africa and make something out of it.

Posted by jim at 6:59 PM on February 4

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Sure; just try and find more whites who will put up with doing all the work for an incompetent AA supervisor, while that supervisor gets all the credit. I think all the whites already willing to put up with that nonsense are already in the military or in government offices.

Posted by Michael C. Scott at 7:18 PM on February 4

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There’s probably plenty of Hispanics working the Spanish language media.

Posted by Civilized Neighbor at 7:42 PM on February 4

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“We’ve never seen a black or Hispanic press secretary standing at the podium each day giving daily briefings.”

Maybe Roland should voice his complaint to the ones really in charge of the operation, David Axlerod, Rahm Emanuel, Bernard Bernanke, Feitner and the rest of the CFR.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg hired over 100 clerks and staff members as an appellate Judge and not one of them was black.

Posted by Anonymous at 8:55 PM on February 4

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This man is a real dullard, and I know that by exchanging emails with him. From the quality of the writing I received from him, with an underlying inability to think in anything but elementary terms, I have to conclude that he has help whenever he writes a column or news story. The above piece is no work of art by the largest stretch of the immagination, but it’s far better than what I know he’s capable of, because of my experience with him.

I’m just wondering how long these newspapers can continue carrying the extra baggage that requires intense editing and rewording of what their black staff writes.

The news shows like CNN I believe…..I hope I’m wrong…..will probably not be affected by the downturn in the economy, but the newspapers are hurting very badly right now.

Posted by q at 9:22 PM on February 4

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Maybe there is hope for Obama after all. Hire or appoint the most congenial and competent associate/press secretary/advisors because of their abilities and not their pigmentation: what a radical idea!! Mr. Martin needs to step back and view their whole spectrum of appointees: are they truly inept, incompetent, or less qualified than a competing minor candidate?? Hardly. He contends that a black (hybridic) president should remain faithful to the rainbow coalition of the past, the belief that proportionate representation is fair representation, that affirmative action always gave us the most qualified individual, and blah, blah, blah… This is a new era. Each president surrounds himself with those he can trust and who share his values. Bush was actually more sensitive to the diversity myth than Obama; he hoped that minorities would vote for him if he appointed them to positions of authority. It’s all tribal after all. Obama is capitalizing on his belief that no matter how non-diversified his choices have been, the minorities will support him in the long run. Unless a crisis implodes his “change” mantra, he will be re-elected in 4 years. Furthermore, he knows it.

Posted by Jean-Jacques at 9:24 PM on February 4