Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat
Replacement Migration
United Nations
ST/ESA/SER.A/206
Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat
Replacement Migration:
Is It a Solution to Declining
and Ageing Populations ?
NOTE
The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this
publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the
Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, city or
area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The designations “developed” and “developing” countries and “more
developed” and “less developed” regions are intended for statistical convenience and
do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country
or area in the development process.
The term “country” as used in the text of this publication also refers, as
appropriate, to territories or areas.
ST/ESA/SER.A/206
UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION
Sales No. E.01.XIII.19
ISBN 92-1-151362-6
Copyright © United Nations 2001
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
ii i
PREFACE
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the
United Nations Secretariat is responsible for providing the international community with upto-
date and scientifically objective information on population and development. The
Population Division provides guidance to the General Assembly of the United Nations, the
Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development on
population and development issues. The Division undertakes regular studies on population
levels and trends, population estimates and projections, population policies and the
interrelationships between population and development.
In particular, the Population Division is concerned with the following substantive
areas: patterns of mortality, fertility and international and internal migration, including levels
and trends, their causes and consequences, and socio-economic, geographic and gender
differentials; spatial distribution of population between urban and rural areas and among
cities; estimates and projections of population size, age and sex structure, spatial distribution
and demographic indicators for all countries of the world; population and development
policies at the national and international levels; and the relationship between socio-economic
development and population change.
The work of the Population Division is published in a variety of formats, including
electronically, in order to meet the needs of diverse audiences. These publications and
materials are used by Governments; by national and international organizations; by research
institutions and individuals engaged in social and economic planning, research and training;
and by the general public.
The Part I like to look at is this part:
(g) Scenario VI
Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 value of 5.2 persons aged 15-64 for each
person aged 65 or older. In order to keep the potential support ratio constant at that level, it would be
necessary to have 593 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 10.8 million per year. By
2050, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 775 million, or 73 per cent, would be post-
1995 immigrants or their descendants.
(h) Additional considerations
The official United States estimate of (documented) migrants into the United States from 1990 to
1996 is about 1.1 million per year. Thus, the past regular inflow into the United States is well above the
number of migrants needed to prevent a decline in the total population or in the working-age population.
Also under both scenarios III and IV, the percentage of post-1995 immigrants and their descendants in the
total population of 2050 (2.5 per cent for scenario III and 7.9 per cent for scenario IV) would be below the
percentage of foreign-born that exists currently (9.6 per cent). Figure 23 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and
IV, the population of the United States in 2050, indicating the share that consists of post-1995 migrants
and their descendants.
In the absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the
working-age to 66.9 years to obtain a potential support ratio of 3.0 in 2050, and to about 74 years in order
to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in the United States, which was 5.2
persons of working age per each older person past working age. Increasing the activity rates of the
population, if it were possible, would only be a partial palliative to the decline in the support ratio due to
ageing. If the activity rates of all men and women aged 25 to 64 were to increase to 100 per cent by 2050,
this would make up for only 21 per cent of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of
the population.
Most Americans believe illegal immigrants hurt US
06 January 2006
Many adults in the United States believe illegal immigrants are a problem, according to a poll by TNS released by the Washington Post and ABC News. Fifty-six per cent of respondents think illegal immigrants do more to hurt the country, while 37 per cent say they help the country.
The U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service estimates that more than 7 million illegal immigrants are currently living in the country. A recent report by the Pew Hispanic Center calculated the number of undocumented immigrants at 10.3 million. While California is home to most workers, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have the greatest rates of increase.
In January 2004, U.S. president George W. Bush tabled his proposal for a major overhaul of the U.S. immigration system. The plan includes a “temporary worker program” that would grant legal status to undocumented workers, who would pay taxes, be required to return to their home country after three years, and receive no special preference if they decide to apply for permanent citizenship. 61 per cent of respondents say illegal immigrants who are already living and working in the U.S. should be offered a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status.
On Dec. 16, Bush commended the House of Representatives for passing “a strong immigration reform bill,” adding, “America is a nation built on the rule of law, and this bill will help us protect our borders and crack down on illegal entry into the United States.” 79 per cent of respondents believe the U.S. is not doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from entering.
Polling Data
Overall, do you think illegal immigrants do more to help the country, or do more to hurt the country?
| Hurt |
56% |
| Help |
37% |
| Neither |
5% |
| No opinion |
2% |
Do you think illegal immigrants who are living and working in the United States now should be offered a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, or do you think they should be deported back to their native country?
| Dec. 2005 |
Aug. 2005 |
Jan. 2005 |
| Offered a chance to keep jobs |
61% |
55% |
61% |
| Deported to native country |
38% |
42% |
36% |
| No opinion |
2% |
3% |
3% |
Do you think the United States is or is not doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from coming into this country?
|
Dec. 2005 |
Aug. 2005 |
Jan. 2005 |
| Doing enough |
20% |
19% |
20% |
| Not doing enough |
79% |
80% |
77% |
| No opinion |
2% |
1% |
4% |
Locust: according to http://www.cis.org/CurrentNumbers
The nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal) reached a record of 37.9 million in 2007. Immigrants account for one in eight U.S. residents, the highest level in 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. Illegal aliens account for an estimated 11.3 million of the total, or almost one in three foreign born residents. Since 2000, 10.3 million immigrants have arrived — the highest seven-year period of immigration in U.S. history. More than half of post-2000 arrivals (5.6 million) are estimated to be illegal aliens.
If immigration continues at current levels, the nation’s population will increase from 301 million today to 468 million in 2060 — a 167 million (56 percent) increase. Immigrants plus their descendents will account for 105 million (63 percent) of the increase. Net immigration has been increasing for five decades; if immigration continues to increase, it will add more than the projected 105 million that will be added if immigration levels stay the same.
According to the Department of Homeland Security, 1,052,415 immigrants were given permanent residence in FY 2007. Of those, 689,820 were family-sponsored; 162,176 were employment based; 136,125 were refugees or asylees; and 64,294 were from other categories.
United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 15
III. THE APPROACH: METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
A. THE SIX SCENARIOS
As part of its regular work programme, the Population Division prepares population estimates and
projections biennially for all countries of the world, with estimates for the period from 1950 to 1995, and
with four projection variants for the period 1995 to 2050. The last such revision can be found in World
Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (United Nations, 1999a, 1999b and 1999c).
The four projection variants in the 1998 Revision (high, medium, low and constant) are prepared for
countries and areas using the cohort-component method. The different variants are based on different
assumptions about the future course of fertility. All variants incorporate the same assumptions about the
future course of mortality, and for most countries the assumptions about future international migration
trends are also the same for all four variants.
The high, medium and low variants constitute the core of the official estimates and projections of the
United Nations. They are meant to create a range that encompasses the likely future path of population
growth for each country and area of the world. The high and low variants provide upper and lower
bounds for that growth. The medium variant is a useful central reference for trends over the longer-term
future. The constant variant projects the population of each country by maintaining fertility constant at
the level estimated for 1990-1995. The results of this variant are meant to be used for illustrative
purposes and are not considered to represent a likely future path for any country or area.
Building upon the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, the present replacement migration study
considers six different scenarios with regard to the migration streams needed to achieve particular
population objectives or outcomes. The six scenarios are described below:
Scenario I. This scenario is based on the medium variant of the 1998 Revision.
Scenario II. This scenario is based on the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, amended by assuming
zero migration after 1995.
Scenario III. This scenario computes and assumes the migration required to maintain the size of the
total population at the highest level it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
Scenario IV. This scenario computes and assumes the migration required to maintain the size of the
working-age population (15 to 64 years) at the highest level it would reach in the absence
of migration after 1995.
Scenario V. This scenario computes and assumes the migration required to prevent the ratio of the
size of the population aged 15-64 to the size of the population aged 65 or over, called the
potential support ratio (PSR), from declining below the value of 3.0.
Scenario VI. This scenario computes and assumes the migration required to maintain the potential
support ratio (PSR) at the highest level it would reach in the absence of migration after
1995.
16 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration
The study examines the situation for eight countries: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of
Korea, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, from 1995 on
computations are also made for Europe and for the European Union, treating each as if it was a single
country. The time period covered is roughly a half a century, from 1995 to 2050.
All the data pertaining to the eight countries and two regions mentioned above for the period 1950 to
1995 come from the estimates in the 1998 Revision. For the period 1995 to 2050, projections are carried
out using the cohort-component method, taking as a base the 1995 population by sex and five-year age
groups and applying the age-specific fertility and mortality rates assumed in the medium variant of the
1998 Revision.
More specifically, the number of survivors in each age and sex category at the end of each five-year
period is calculated by applying to the base-year population age- and sex-specific survival rates that are
derived from an observed or estimated national life-table, using the United Nations model for future
mortality improvement. The number of births expected to take place during each five-year period is
derived by applying the estimated age-specific fertility rate, which is obtained from the national fertility
pattern and assumed future fertility trend, to the average number of women in the age group. The births
are distributed by sex on the basis of the estimated sex ratio at birth. The assumed net number of
international migrants, classified by age and sex, is incorporated into the calculations.
The detailed past results and future assumptions of the 1998 Revision for each of the countries and
regions examined in this study are presented in the annex tables. A detailed description of the
methodology used for the estimates and projections may be found in World Population Prospects: The
1998 Revision, volume III (United Nations, 1999c).
The future population trends according to the medium variant are mainly determined by the assumed
future course of fertility. For each of the countries and regions considered in this study, the total fertility
rate is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. For those countries whose latest estimated
total fertility rate was between 1.5 and 2.1 children per woman (France, Republic of Korea, the United
Kingdom and the United States), it is assumed that the fertility rate will move towards a target level of 1.9
children per woman and will remain constant to the end of the projection period, 2050. For those
countries and regions whose latest estimated total fertility rate was less than 1.5 children per woman
(Germany, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Europe and the European Union), the fertility rate is
expected to rise to a target level of 1.7 children per woman and remain constant thereafter. It should also
be noted that the target total fertility rate was modified when information was available on the completed
fertility of the cohort of women born in 1962. In those cases (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Europe and
the European Union), the target level was set as the average of either 1.9 or 1.7 and the estimated
completed fertility of the 1962 cohort. In general, recorded post-1995 trends in fertility were assumed to
continue until the year 2000, and then stabilize at the 2000 level until 2005. After 2005, fertility was
assumed to move towards the target level at a pace of 0.07 children per woman per quinquennium.
Scenario I, which is the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, already has migration assumptions for
the period 1995-2050. In each of the other five scenarios the net total number of migrants during each
five-year period is computed so that the projected results meet the particular requirements of the scenario.
Scenario II assumes that the total net number of migrants is zero for each five-year period. Scenario
III involves computing the total net number of migrants for each five-year period needed to maintain the
size of the total at the highest level it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995. Scenario IV
determines the total net number of migrants for each five-year period required to maintain the size of the
working age population (15-64 years) at the highest level it would reach in the absence of migration after
1995. Scenario V computes the total net number of migrants required to prevent the ratio of the
population aged 15-64 to the population aged 65 or over from declining below 3.0. Finally, scenario VI
United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 17
computes the total net number of migrants required to maintain the potential support ratio at the highest
level it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
Another critical assumption concerns the age and sex distribution of the total net number of
migrants. The age and sex structure of the migrants is assumed to be the same for all countries. This
assumption, while unlikely, permits comparisons among the countries and regions. It is assumed that the
structure of the migration streams is the average age and sex structure of migrants into Australia, Canada
and the United States. These three countries were selected because they are the three major traditional
countries of immigration.
The age structures of the three countries and their average, or model pattern for this study, are shown
for males and females in figures 3 and 4 respectively. The per cent distribution by age and sex of the
immigrants in the model pattern, which is used in the scenarios, is shown in table 4 and illustrated as an
age-sex pyramid in figure 5.
The projection methodology also assumes that, after the immigrants arrive in a country, they
experience the average fertility and mortality conditions of that country. While this is typically not the
case, especially when immigrants come from a country that differs greatly demographically from the
receiving country, this assumption permits computations to be more straightforward and also facilitates
comparisons between countries and regions.
United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 77
8. United States of America
(a) Past trends
The total fertility rate in the United States dropped from 3.45 births per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.02
in 1970-1975. Except for a temporary period during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when it hovered
around 1.8, the total fertility rate has continued to be around two children per woman. Life expectancy at
birth, meanwhile, has risen from 69.0 years in 1950-1955 to 75.7 years in 1990-1995. As a consequence
of these changes, the proportion of the population aged 65 or older rose from 8.3 per cent in 1950 to 12.5
per cent in 1995, and the potential support ratio declined from 7.8 in 1950 to 5.2 in 1995. As a point of
comparison, the potential support ratio was 15 in 1900, when 4 per cent of the population was aged 65
years or older.
(b) Scenario I
Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes an annual net intake of
760,000 migrants per year between 1995-2050, for a total of 41,800,000 net migrants during the period.
Accordingly, the total population of the United States is projected to increase continuously from 267
million in 1995 to 349 million in 2050 (the results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in
the annex tables). By 2050, out of this total population of 349 million, 59 million, or 16.8 per cent, would
be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants. The population aged 15-64 would increase slowly from
174 million in 1995 to 214 million in 2050, although not in a monotonic fashion. The population aged 65
or older would rise rapidly, from 33 million in 1995 to nearly 76 million in 2050. As a result, the
potential support ratio would decrease from 5.2 in 1995 to 2.8 in 2050.
(c) Scenario II
Scenario II, which is the medium variant with zero migration, uses the fertility and mortality
assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, but without any migration to the United States
after 1995. The results in this scenario are quite different from those of scenario I. The total population
would increase to 290 million in 2050, which is 50 million less than in scenario I. The population aged
15-64 would rise from 174 million in 1995 to 192 million in 2010 and 2015 and then decline, returning to
174 million in 2050. The population aged 65 or older would double, from 33 million in 1950 to 68
million in 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio would decline to 2.6 in 2050, which is slightly
below that presented in scenario I.
(d) Scenario III
Scenario III keeps the size of the total United States population constant at its maximum of 298
million, which it would reach in 2030 (assuming no in-migration after 1995). In order to keep the total
population constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 6.4 million migrants between 2030 and
2050, which is an average of 319,000 migrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 298
million, 7.3 million, or 2.5 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.
(e) Scenario IV
Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15 to 64 constant at its maximum of 192.5 million,
which it would reach in 2015 (assuming no in-migration after 1995). In order to keep the working-age
population constant at that level, 18.0 million migrants would be needed between 2015 and 2050, which
is an average of 513 thousand migrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 316 million, 25.0
million, or 7.9 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.
78 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration
(f) Scenario V
Scenario V does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of 3.0. In order to
achieve this, no immigrants would be needed until 2025, and 44.9 million immigrants would be needed
between 2025 and 2035, an average of 4.5 million per year during that period. By 2050, out of a total
population of 352 million, 61 million, or 17 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their
descendants.
(g) Scenario VI
Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 value of 5.2 persons aged 15-64 for each
person aged 65 or older. In order to keep the potential support ratio constant at that level, it would be
necessary to have 593 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 10.8 million per year. By
2050, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 775 million, or 73 per cent, would be post-
1995 immigrants or their descendants.
(h) Additional considerations
The official United States estimate of (documented) migrants into the United States from 1990 to
1996 is about 1.1 million per year. Thus, the past regular inflow into the United States is well above the
number of migrants needed to prevent a decline in the total population or in the working-age population.
Also under both scenarios III and IV, the percentage of post-1995 immigrants and their descendants in the
total population of 2050 (2.5 per cent for scenario III and 7.9 per cent for scenario IV) would be below the
percentage of foreign-born that exists currently (9.6 per cent). Figure 23 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and
IV, the population of the United States in 2050, indicating the share that consists of post-1995 migrants
and their descendants.
In the absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the
working-age to 66.9 years to obtain a potential support ratio of 3.0 in 2050, and to about 74 years in order
to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in the United States, which was 5.2
persons of working age per each older person past working age. Increasing the activity rates of the
population, if it were possible, would only be a partial palliative to the decline in the support ratio due to
ageing. If the activity rates of all men and women aged 25 to 64 were to increase to 100 per cent by 2050,
this would make up for only 21 per cent of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of
the population.
Illegal, but Not Undocumented: Identity Theft, Document Fraud, and Illegal Employment
By Ronald W. Mortensen
June 2009
Backgrounders and Reports
Download this Backgrounder as a pdf
Ronald W. Mortensen, PhD, is a retired career U.S. Foreign Service Officer and former Society for Human Resource Management senior executive.
This
Backgrounder examines illegal immigration-related document fraud and identity theft that is committed primarily for the purpose of employment. It debunks three common misconceptions: illegal aliens are “undocumented;” the transgressions committed by illegal aliens to obtain jobs are minor; and illegal-alien document fraud and identity theft are victimless crimes. It discusses how some community leaders rationalize these crimes, contributing to a deterioration of the respect for laws in our nation, and presents a variety of remedies, including more widespread electronic verification of work status (E-Verify and the Social Security Number Verification Service) and immigrant outreach programs to explain the ramifications and risks of document fraud and identity theft.
The findings include:
- Illegal immigrants are not “undocumented.” They have fraudulent documents such as counterfeit Social Security cards, forged drivers licenses, fake “green cards,” and phony birth certificates. Experts suggest that approximately 75 percent of working-age illegal aliens use fraudulent Social Security cards to obtain employment.
- Most (98 percent) Social Security number (SSN) thieves use their own names with stolen numbers. The federal E-Verify program, now mandated in only 14 states, can detect this fraud. Universal, mandatory use of E-Verify would curb this and stop virtually 100 percent of child identity theft.
- Illegal immigration and high levels of identity theft go hand-in-hand. States with the most illegal immigration also have high levels of job-related identity theft. In Arizona, 33 percent or all identity theft is job-related (as opposed to identity theft motivated simply by profit). In Texas it is 27 percent; in New Mexico, 23 percent; in Colorado, 22 percent; California, 20 percent; and in Nevada, 16 percent. Eight of the 10 states with the highest percentage of illegal aliens in their total population are among the top 10 states in identity theft (Arizona, California, Florida, Texas, Nevada, New York, Georgia, and Colorado).
- Children are prime targets. In Arizona, it is estimated that over one million children are victims of identity theft. In Utah, 1,626 companies were found to be paying wages to the SSNs of children on public assistance under the age of 13. These individuals suffer very real and very serious consequences in their lives.
- Illegal aliens commit felonies in order to get jobs. Illegal aliens who use fraudulent documents, perjure themselves on I-9 forms, and commit identity theft in order to get jobs are committing serious offenses and are not “law abiding.”
- Illegally employed aliens send billions of dollars annually to their home countries, rather than spending it in the United States and helping stimulate the American economy. In October 2008 alone, $2.4 billion was transferred to Mexico.
- Tolerance of corruption erodes the rule of law. Corruption is a serious problem in most illegal aliens’ home countries. Allowing it to flourish here paves the way for additional criminal activity and increased corruption throughout society.
- Leaders support perpetrators and ignore victims. Political, civic, religious, business, education, and media leaders blame Americans for “forcing” illegal aliens to commit document fraud and identity theft. No similar concern is expressed for the American men, women, and children whose lives are destroyed in the process.
- The Social Security Administration and Internal Revenue Service facilitate illegal immigrant-driven identity theft. Both turn a blind eye to massive SSN fraud and take no action to stop it. The Social Security Administration assigns SSNs to new-born infants that are being used illegally. The IRS demands that victims pay taxes on wages earned by illegal aliens using their stolen SSNs, while taking no action to stop the identity theft.
- State and local governments need to adopt tougher laws to supplement federal efforts. The Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is targeting large document fraud rings and the most egregious employers, but their resources are limited and stretched across multiple priorities. In 2007, identity theft cases represented only 7 percent of the total ICE case load.
- Employers must do their part. They can ensure that they have a legal workforce by using a combination of the federal government’s E-Verify and Social Security Number Verification Service systems and by signing up for the federal government’s IMAGE program or privately conducted audits.
Misconceptions
That Illegal Aliens Are Undocumented
When Jean Pierre from Montreal crosses the border into the United States illegally, he lacks the documents to obtain employment and other benefits that legal residents of the United States are entitled to. When Maggie from Dublin and Raj from India overstay their tourist visas in order to work in the United States, they find themselves in the same situation.
Because it is virtually impossible to live and work in the United States without documents, they and millions of others turn to fraudulent document dealers for falsified Social Security cards, forged drivers licenses, counterfeit green cards, and a wide range of other phony documents.
According to Richard Hamp of the Utah Attorney General’s Office, illegal aliens rarely steal Americans’ total identities (a victim’s full name, date of birth, and SSN) simply because doing so is more difficult and expensive. Instead, illegal aliens commit SSN-only identity theft by obtaining fraudulent Social Security cards in their own names, often with random numbers made up by dealers. However, since about half of all SSNs have been issued, there is a 50-50 chance that the SSN already belongs to another person. And even if the number hasn’t been issued, the Social Security Administration may later assign it to an infant, thereby giving a newborn an instant credit history, arrest record, and liability for back taxes.
That Illegal Aliens Are Law-Abiding
Illegal aliens who commit document fraud, use SSNs that do not belong to them, and falsify I-9 forms under penalty of perjury clearly are not ordinary law-abiding residents. They may be arrested and prosecuted for felony document fraud and perjury and in, certain states, they may be prosecuted for felony identity theft or felony identity fraud.
So, while simply living in the country without authorization is usually a civil offense, a large number of illegal aliens rapidly take the next step and commit serious felonies in order to obtain jobs and other benefits reserved for American citizens and legal residents.
Identity Theft Defined. The non-profit Identity Theft Resource Center defines identity theft as “a crime in which an impostor obtains key pieces of personal identifying information (PII) such as SSNs and drivers license numbers and uses them for their own personal gain.” According the Federal Trade Commission, “Identity theft occurs when someone uses your personally identifying information, like your name, SSN, or credit card number, without your permission, to commit fraud or other crimes…. They may get a job using your Social Security number.”1
Therefore, the use of an SSN belonging to someone else, whether knowingly or unknowing, is clearly identity theft according to these definitions. In addition, the victims of illegal alien SSN identity theft suffer clear and extremely serious harm.
In spite of this, under federal and many state statutes, a person using someone else’s SSN or other personal information must “knowingly” do so in order to be convicted of felony identity theft. The United States Supreme Court has ruled that prosecutors must prove that an illegal alien is knowingly using another person’s SSN in order to convict the illegal alien of identity theft under the federal statute, thereby, leaving the victims of these serious and often devastating crimes unprotected.
At the state level, Utah faced the problem of defense attorneys claiming that their illegal alien clients should get off because they were not knowingly using the SSNs of Utah children. Therefore, in 2006, in order to protect all American citizens and legal residents including tens of thousands of children, Utah’s identity fraud statute was amended to clearly state that it is not a defense to argue “that the person did not know that the personal information belonged to another person.”
Following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, County Attorneys in Arizona expressed confidence that that state’s felony identity theft statute would withstand challenge and called on Congress to revise federal statutes to hold illegal aliens committing identity theft liable for their actions.2 Prosecutors in Kansas said that they would press legislators to revise identity theft statutes and it is anticipated that other states around the nation also will amend their statutes in order to protect their citizens from illegal alien-driven identity theft.3
The Relationship Between Identity Theft and Illegal Immigration. U.S. law enforcement agencies have observed that identity theft and immigration “go hand in hand.”4 In Weld County, Colo., which has large numbers of illegal aliens employed in the meat packing industry, District Attorney Ken Buck reports that the principal driver of identity theft is job related5
Identity theft is one of the fastest-growing crimes in the United States and impacts millions of American citizens and legal residents each year, though actual numbers are difficult to determine because most governments and police departments don’t track identity theft. Even the Federal Trade Commission, which is the lead agency for reporting identity theft, only captures a small number of actual identity theft cases.
But we know that illegal aliens routinely use fraudulent SSNs belonging to American citizens and legal residents. In a 2002 report to Congress, the General Accounting Office stated: “INS has reported that large-scale counterfeiting has made fraudulent employment eligibility documents (e.g., Social Security cards) widely available.”6 The Social Security Administration assumes that roughly three-quarters of illegal aliens are paying payroll taxes through withholding, which generally requires an SSN.7
For example, an immigration raid at an Agriprocessors, Inc., meat processing plant in Pottsville, Iowa, last year found that 76 percent of the plant’s employees had bogus SSNs.8 And during an April 2008 raid at Pilgrim’s Pride meat packing plants, more than 280 employees at facilities in five states were arrested on suspicion of committing identity theft and other criminal violations in order to obtain jobs.9 According to press reports, ICE agents said their investigation of Pilgrim’s Pride started when the victims of identity theft came forward after having problems with taxes and credit reports.10
Illegal aliens’ fraudulent document use was further confirmed by Domingo Garcia, General Counsel for the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), who, according to press reports, said that it was well known that around 80 percent of the workers at Pilgrim’s Pride had fake identification.11
So its no surprise that Table 1 shows that states with the highest percentage illegal aliens in their total populations tend to have the highest incidence of overall identity theft, including significant levels of employment-related identity theft.

Of the 10 states with the highest incidence of identity theft, eight are among the 10 states where illegal aliens account for the largest percentages of total population. The two remaining top-10 identity theft states are ranked 13 and 17 in terms of percentage of illegal aliens.
In 2008, 15 percent of all identity theft in the United States was employment-related, up from 14 percent in 2007.12 Six of the 10 states with the highest identity theft have employment-related identity theft rates that exceed the national average. In Arizona, where substantive illegal immigration-related legislation was passed and where employment verification is now required, employment-related identity theft dropped significantly, from 39 to 33 percent of all identity theft cases. In Colorado, employment-related identity theft increased from 17 to 22 percent between 2007 and 2008. In New Mexico, the increase was from 19 to 23 percent; in Texas, from 24 to 27 percent; and in California, from 17 to 20 percent.
ICE Efforts Are Improving. ICE is the lead agency addressing immigration-related document fraud and identity theft. In 2006, the agency established the Document and Benefits Fraud Task Forces (DBFTF), which are now in place in 17 ICE field offices. Their mission is to investigate and dismantle criminal organizations that make, sell, and distribute identity documents to circumvent immigration laws or for any other criminal purpose and to seize their equipment and assets. For example, ICE agents in Denver, assisted by other field offices and federal agencies, took down the notorious Castorena family organization. The family ran a massive nationwide network of fake document rings, producing papers such as green cards, Social Security cards, drivers licenses, and other types of documents. Their franchises reached all 50 states.
The work of the DBFTFs intersects with other agency work, including counter-terrorism investigations and worksite operations. Many of ICE’s recent worksite enforcement operations have been launched as a result of information or activity uncovered by the DBFTFs. The 2006 operation conducted against the Swift & Company meat processing business, which resulted in the arrest of nearly 1,300 illegal aliens, was launched after ICE agents discovered hundreds of victims of identity theft from illegal workers at the Swift plants.
While ICE has recently been able to increase its efforts in this area, the agency has limited resources that are stretched across multiple priorities. In 2007, ICE worked 5,080 identity and/or benefit fraud cases, generating hundreds of indictments, arrests, and convictions.13 However, this represented only 7 percent of ICE’s total case load, reflecting the reality that violent criminals and drug smuggling are a more pressing investigative priority for ICE. Further, the DBFTFs must focus their efforts on dismantling large criminal enterprises. They do not have the resources or personnel to investigate every individual alien identity thief. As with other kinds of criminal activity, it is up to state and local law enforcement agencies to identify and address what is happening in their jurisdiction, and be the prosecutors of first resort.
That Illegal Imigration Is a Victimless Crime
Illegal alien-driven identity theft is not a victimless crime. It impacts millions of Americans of all ages. Newborn infants and children often are the victims of illegal alien identity thieves. IRS agents, law enforcement officials, people with disabilities, the unemployed, and even those serving time in jail have been victimized by illegal aliens using their SSNs in order to obtain jobs and other benefits. According to the Wall Street Journal, American citizens with Hispanic surnames are 1.5 times more likely to be victims of job-related identity theft than are other Americans.14
Following the Swift meat packing raids, Department of Homeland Secretary, Michael Chertoff told reporters that:
Anybody who has ever been a victim of identity theft understands the hardship, and, in fact, the persistent hardship, that follows from this kind of crime, and the hardship that is felt by innocent people.
Now, this is not only a case about illegal immigration, which is bad enough. It’s a case about identity theft in violation of the privacy rights and the economic rights of innocent Americans…. These individuals suffered very real consequences in their lives. These were not victimless crimes. 15
Thus, when illegal aliens use SSNs or other documents belonging to American citizens and legal residents, the damage can be substantial. The true owners risk being saddled with the illegal aliens’ credit, arrest, and medical records. Victims may be denied jobs, unemployment insurance, Social Security payments, and Medicaid benefits. It costs victims hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars to undo the damage and recover their names and lives.
In addition, all Americans are impacted by the fallout from illegal alien-driven document fraud and identity theft. Rather than spending their earnings in the United States and helping fuel the consumer-driven American economy, illegal workers minimize their expenditures in the United States so they can send billions of dollars back to their home countries. During a recessionary period, this transfer makes it all the more difficult to turn the economy around.
When the economy hits hard times and Americans and legal residents lose their jobs, illegal aliens can continue to work using their stolen identities and fraudulent documents. If an illegal alien who is laid off uses his fraudulent documents to obtain unemployment benefits, this drives up the cost of unemployment insurance. If an illegal alien is using an American’s SSN to obtain unemployment benefits, that citizen will be denied benefits that he or she is legally entitled to.
Children Are Prime Targets. Children do not use their SSNs for employment or to obtain credit so parents generally do not check their children’s credit histories, allowing a person using a child’s SSN to go undetected for years. Sometimes document vendors sell fraudulent identity packages using unassigned SSNs that are later assigned to a child, causing them problems before they are even born.

“We have a major problem with workers in medical offices stealing patients’ identities, selling them, and making a direct profit,” according to Sergeant James Bracke of the Phoenix Police Department.16 The stolen numbers are sold to immigrant smuggling groups who use them to fabricate fraudulent documents for people they bring into the United States via Arizona. The result of this is that in Arizona, child identity theft is nearly four times the national rate and an estimated 1.1 million Arizona children have had their identities stolen.117
State and local investigators in Utah uncovered a crime spree involving illegal aliens using the SSNs of tens of thousands of children. They identified 1,626 companies paying wages to the SSNs of children on public assistance under the age of 13.18 One child’s SSN was being used by 37 adults.
Illegal aliens used the Utah children’s SSNs to get jobs, start businesses, and open bank accounts. One suspect told investigators he paid $100 for a boy’s SSN. Victims included a five-year-old girl who supposedly traveled 80 miles to her job at a steak restaurant, an eight-year-old boy who apparently owned a cleaning company and worked as a prep cook at two upscale restaurants, and an 11-year-old boy who supposedly worked for an express air freight company. The suspects were charged with third degree felony counts of identity fraud and forgery.19
Employment-related identity theft is the largest single driver (27 percent) of identity theft in the state of Texas. Almost 900,000 people became victims of identity theft in Texas in 2007. The cost to Texas victims was an estimated $435.7 million and Texas residents spent an estimated total of 3.5 million hours resolving identity theft issues.20
The link between illegal aliens and identity theft was further confirmed by the Social Security Administration’s Special Agent in Charge in Salt Lake City. As reported in the May 3, 2006, Salt Lake Tribune:
According to Ronald Ingleby, Special Agent in Charge of the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Inspector General in Utah, real Social Security numbers and accounts are being created, or purloined, by undocumented workers to circumvent employers’ efforts to certify their legality….Ninety-eight percent of Social Security-related ID theft cases involve people who use their own names but use someone else’s Social Security number. Two percent involve perpetrators using the numbers to assume their victims’ identities…. 21
Identity Theft Victims Suffer Real Consequences. Victims of identity theft suffer real consequences. The victims of workers at the Swift packing plants included an individual in Texas whose personal information was being used by an illegal alien for employment. The victim was pulled over and arrested because the illegal alien had used his identity to conduct criminal activity.22
In Utah, the staff of the state’s Workforce Services office has seen children denied Medicaid benefits because adults were using their SSNs. Based on information developed by Workforce Services, Utah Attorney General, Mark Shurtleff warned the public about the devastating impact that illegal alien identity theft has on children when he said:
Identity thieves are no respecters of age. They will steal your children’s ID, ruin their credit, and hurt them in ways never thought possible before they can graduate from grade school. Children are vulnerable even if parents do everything right.23
In Illinois, an American citizen was denied a job at a Target store because one of 37 people who were using her SSN was already employed by the company. According to MSNBC, “The woman found herself in a financial nightmare. All those imitators made a mess out of her work history, her Social Security records, and her credit report. She was haunted by bills and creditors. She received threatening letters from the IRS, asking her to pay taxes on money earned by imposters. She was told to re-pay unemployment benefits she had received, after the government discovered she was ‘working’ while drawing benefits.”24
A man whose SSN was used to obtain employment in at least three states was told by the IRS that he owed $64,000 in unpaid taxes in spite of the fact that he had been incarcerated in a state penitentiary during the time the income was earned.25
A nursing home resident nearly lost his disability benefits because a worker at a Pilgrim’s Pride meat plant was using his identity and it appeared that the disabled patient was working.26 An Air Force veteran was arrested on a warrant for unpaid parking tickets incurred by an illegal alien using his identity. He was only released after paying a $340 fine for tickets that he did not incur. He continued to receive demands for the payment of outstanding taxes on income that he had not earned and he saw his credit rating destroyed.27
These stories are just the tip of the iceberg. Millions of Americans either knowingly or unknowingly are sharing their SSNs with illegal aliens and are having their lives slowly usurped by the identity thieves. They will only learn of the damage done when they are denied credit, receive a notice for taxes on income they didn’t earn, are denied benefits that they are entitled to, find that their medical records have been corrupted with possibly life-threatening consequences, or when collection agencies start calling.
A Culture of Corruption
Even those American citizens or legal residents whose identities are not stolen by an illegal alien still suffer the consequences of rampant document fraud and identity theft.
One of the key elements of a free and democratic society is respect for the rule of law by both the government and individuals. However, in most illegal aliens’ homelands, the rule of law is routinely disregarded and official corruption is a serious problem.
Transparency International’s Corruption Prevention Index (CPI) ranks 180 countries by their perceived levels of corruption. CPI scores range between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt). The average score for the 10 countries that account for the vast majority of illegal aliens in the United States is 3.43, indicating a serious level of corruption (see Table 2).

In contrast, the least corrupt countries in the world are Denmark, New Zealand, and Sweden, with scores of 9.3. Canada, which has 67,000 illegal aliens in the United States, comes in at 8.7, and the United States’ score is 7.3, or 18th in the world. The United States’ score is one of the lowest scores among the industrialized nations and it has gone down in the past few years.
As Transparency International points out, “People are as corrupt as the system allows them to be. It is where temptation meets permissiveness that corruption takes root on a wide scale.”28 Thus, under a permissive U.S. system that fails to control the nation’s borders, that allows a fraudulent document market to flourish, that allows employers turn a blind eye to the legal status of their workers, and where civic, religious, and political leaders support felons over victims, it is not surprising that illegal aliens without a pre-existing allegiance to the rule of law see nothing wrong with using fraudulent documents to obtain jobs and benefits that they are not entitled to.
Those sworn to uphold the law also contribute to the permissiveness that leads to corruption and a weakening of the rule of law. When a human trafficking bill was being debated in the Utah House of Representatives, an attorney and former judge amended the bill to allow farmers to transport illegal aliens up to 100 miles without being charged with trafficking.29 Utah’s Attorney General told illegal aliens present at a massive rally for illegal alien rights that “Many of my fellow Republicans will criticize me for being here. They’ll tell me instead of speaking to you, that as the chief law enforcement of Utah I should be arresting you. [That’s] not going to happen.”30 In some cities, sanctuary policies prohibit law enforcement officials from questioning aliens about their immigration status or from contacting or assisting ICE.
This culture of corruption is reinforced when illegal aliens are offered special benefits such as in-state tuition, drivers licenses, financial services, and religious offices and privileges in spite of their multiple, ongoing violations of civil and criminal law. The increasing acceptance of corruption has a debilitating effect on the overall respect for the rule of law with the result that illegal aliens become involved in a wide range of other criminal activities including tax fraud; mortgage fraud; violation of drivers license, insurance, and traffic laws; and gang membership.
Tax Corruption
Illegal aliens and their employers are frequently involved in tax fraud. This results in lower revenues for governments at all levels and higher taxes for American citizens and legal residents. Some illegal aliens work “off the books” and thus pay no income taxes on earned income, while their employers avoid payroll taxes.
Many illegal aliens use a combination of Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITIN) and fraudulent SSNs to obtain tax refunds that they are not entitled to. For example, in Weld County, Colo., law enforcement officials uncovered tax fraud that involved 1,300 illegal immigrants using fraudulent SSNs to obtain more than $2.6 million in tax refunds.31 Treasury Department auditors have noted disapprovingly that the IRS allows illegal aliens filing returns with ITINs to obtain millions of dollars in credits and deductions to which they are not entitled as non-permanent aliens.32
In spite of this, the IRS has distributed about 15 million ITINs since 1996, with a large share believed to be assigned to illegal aliens.33 As reported by The New York Times,
In the Queens center, Ana Andrade, 32, from Mexico….presented a W-2 form that showed withholding of more than $3,000 from the $24,000 she had earned as a cook in a Manhattan restaurant, at $10 an hour. Like more than seven million such W-2 forms nationwide, hers bore a false Social Security number.
No problem, the senior tax specialist explained. Her return would be filed under her ITIN, with the problematic W-2 form, and the IRS would simply credit her wages to her ITIN. The result: a $2,000 refund, based mainly on child credits for her two American-born children.34
Financial Corruption
America’s leading financial institutions accept foreign identity documents as well as ITINs that are only supposed to be used for the payment of taxes. Some banks and credit unions facilitate money transfers to foreign countries by illegal aliens. They design financial products specifically for illegal aliens, including credit cards. Some have set up special banking units to serve illegal aliens’ special needs and they actively solicit the business of illegal aliens.
Financial institutions also issue risky mortgages and loans to illegal aliens who are not authorized to work and who are subject to arrest and/or removal at any time, which can lead to a default on their mortgages or loans. In Denver, for example, fraudulent documents were used by illegal aliens to get Federal Housing Administration-backed loans and in one case the counterfeit documents were used to purchase 300 homes valued at $51 million. The FHA insurance fund lost millions of dollars.35
Economic Corruption
Illegal aliens working with stolen identities and fraudulent documents transfer billions of dollars to foreign nations that would otherwise have been spent and invested in the United States. In October 2008, at a time the United States economy was reeling from an unprecedented financial crisis and a sharp drop in consumer spending, remittances to Mexico rose to $2.4 billion, a 13 percent jump from $2.2 billion in remittances in October 2007. If this were to continue at the same level for the entire year, the amount of remittances ($28.8 billion) just to Mexico would exceed the total amount initially requested to bail out the three major American automakers.36
During a time of recession, illegal aliens using fraudulent documents may continue to be employed while American citizens and legal residents doing many of the same jobs are let go. When this occurs, the illegal aliens are, in fact, doing jobs that Americans are more than willing to do. In addition, the illegal aliens continue to transfer a significant portion of their earnings out of the country rather spending them in the United States in order to help the economy recover from recession.
According to a study by the Pew Hispanic Center, the unemployment rate for native-born Hispanics was 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2008. The rate for immigrant Hispanics, when adjusted for individuals dropping out of the workforce, was 7.8 percent. Wage losses for native-born Hispanics were actually larger than those for foreign-born Latinos. From the third quarter 2007 to the third quarter 2008, employment of Latinos in the construction industry declined by 5.3 percent while employment of non-Latinos decreased by 5.9 percent. Long-term trends show that the differences between Hispanic and non-Hispanic participation in the labor force remained relatively stable. Thus, while recent statistics show that unemployment rates have grown among immigrants,37 it does not appear that illegal immigrant workers, who are predominantly Hispanic, are being disproportionately laid off and, in fact, it looks as if many illegal aliens continue to work after American citizens doing the same type of work are terminated.38
When governments take action to stimulate the American economy through huge public works and other taxpayer funded programs, it is imperative that the jobs created go to American citizens and legal residents, not to illegal aliens. This requires strict employment verification requirements for businesses or other entities receiving these funds in order to preclude the employment of illegal aliens and to ensure that the stimulus money is put back into the American economy rather than being transferred out of the United States to foreign countries. The U.S. Congress declined to impose such a requirement on the federal stimulus bill, but since it appears much of the funding will be distributed in state block grants, states will have the ability to establish requirements for employment verification to ensure legal hiring.
Corruption of the Rule of Law
Rather than using mass transit because they are ineligible for drivers licenses or automobile insurance, many illegal aliens break the law by driving without licenses or with fraudulent licenses. In addition, studies suggest that Hispanic illegal aliens may have an exceptionally high rate of alcohol-related automobile accidents and fatalities.39 States contribute to the culture of corruption by allowing illegal aliens to register their vehicles. A handful of states give in to illegal aliens who threaten to drive without licenses or insurance and issue drivers licenses or driving privilege cards rather than enforcing existing laws.40
A continual weakening of the rule of law results in illegal aliens contributing to a community’s gang problem. Gangs are considered the single most important public safety threat today — a recent federal assessment said gangs were responsible for 80 percent of crime in some communities.41 Some illegal aliens have gang ties even before unlawfully entering the United States and many others become involved in gang activity once in the United States. According to a recent Center for Immigration Studies Backgrounder, “Immigrant gangs are considered a unique public safety threat due to their members’ propensity for violence and their involvement in transnational crime…. Once in the United States, immigrant gang members rarely make a living as gangsters. They typically work by day in construction, auto repair, farming, landscaping, and other low-skill occupations where employers are less vigilant about checking status, often using false documents.”42 In spite of this, employers continue to hire individuals without verifying their documents and identities and cities continue to enforce sanctuary policies. Both of these practices facilitate gang activity.
Justifying and Facilitating Illegal Alien Identity Theft
In spite of the damage caused by rampant illegal alien document fraud and identity theft, many of America’s political, media, civic, religious, education, and business leaders continue to defend illegal aliens. When forced to acknowledge that illegal aliens are committing felonies, these elites often rationalize the criminal acts and offer support to those committing the crimes rather than supporting the rule of law. They rarely, if ever, acknowledge the victims. They criticize those who enforce the laws and resolutely oppose efforts to protect American citizens and legal residents from illegal alien-driven document fraud and identity theft.
Illegal Aliens “Forced” to Commit Felonies
America’s political, media, civic, religious, and educational leaders try to justify illegal alien document fraud, perjury, and identity theft by arguing that the unauthorized workers are forced to commit these crimes in order to obtain jobs. For example, in 2006, when asked about illegal alien driven identity theft, former United States Representative Chris Cannon (R-Utah) replied: “This is a huge problem, that we sort of force people into.”43 [emphasis added]
The Associated Press had earlier used the same rationale when its reporter wrote:
In 2004, the IRS got 7.9 million W-2s with names that didn’t match a Social Security number. More than half were from California, Texas, Florida, and Illinois, states with large immigrant populations, leading experts to believe they likely represent the wages of illegal immigrants. Even immigrants who use ITINs to file taxes are forced to make up a Social Security number when they get a job.44 [emphasis added]
An editorial in the Deseret News (Utah) stated that the solution to illegal immigration would be to give illegal aliens a “work permit that keeps them from having to forge Social Security cards.”45 [emphasis added]
Illegal aliens, who are used to operating in the often more corrupt systems of their home countries, do what is necessary to get the documents required to work in the United States. When asked why they violate American law, they justify their actions by saying that they had no other choice, that it’s just like the bribe to the policeman or to the corrupt government official in their home countries. For example:
- “If I could do it again — I wouldn’t do it [buy an identity and Social Security number for $850], but the laws of this country force you to do it.”46 (emphasis added) This person had been convicted of identity theft and was being deported.
- “You know, there’s a lot of people, they make documents and we buy them. That’s the only way you can work. It’s not legal, but what can you do?” The ID this person bought belonged to an IRS agent, which under Minnesota law is a criminal offense.47
- “We were working, we weren’t stealing,” she said although she had been convicted of identity theft.48
- “In Spanish, Ramos said all she wanted was a job and that she never knew the identity she was using actually belonged to another woman.” Ramos had used a stolen identity when hospitalized leaving the victim with a $17,000 bill and possibly life threatening, corrupted medical records.49
Turning Criminals into Victims
By excusing criminal behavior and turning lawbreakers into victims, advocates for illegal aliens encourage corruption and subvert the rule of law. In 2008, former Rep. Chris Cannon described the December 12, 2006, raids on the Swift meat packing plant that resulted in the arrest of 147 illegal aliens on identity theft charges as “inappropriate” and “politically motivated” and he expressed concern that the arrests had ruined Christmas for the illegal aliens and their families.50 No mention was made of the victims, including a person who was in a motorcycle accident and was denied disability payments from the Social Security Administration because the records showed him continuing to work hundreds of miles from his actual residence; nor was any concern expressed for a police training officer in Los Angeles County who was pursued by the IRS for $60,000 in taxes owed by individuals using his stolen SSN, and who was unable to buy a home because his credit rating had been destroyed.51
Following a raid at the Agriprocessors, Inc., plant in Postville, Iowa, that resulted in 297 individuals pleading guilty to identity theft and other crimes, the media and Congressional focus was not on the crimes committed, but on the hardships faced by those who were benefiting from the crimes. Iowa Republican Congressman Tom Latham’s spokesman, James Carstensen, told reporters that Latham “views the raid as a blow to families seeking a better life and for the community, which is suffering economically.”52
A Wall Street Journal editorial made no mention of the victims of the illegal aliens arrested in Iowa but it did ask if homeland security officials didn’t have anything better to do than to raid businesses that hire willing workers. The editorial encouraged Americans to keep things in perspective pointing out that there are only about seven million illegal immigrants in the workforce (5 percent of the total). The Journal then asked if this (seven million people using fraudulent documents and, in many cases, the stolen identities of American citizens) is a big enough problem to justify requiring employers to verify the identity of the persons they are hiring. Its conclusion was that it wasn’t.53
During a Congressional hearing on the arrests of hundreds of illegal aliens for identity theft, Democrats focused on the impact that the arrests had on the perpetrators, their families, and the community. No mention was made of the victims. Illegal aliens were absolved of their criminal activity because they “apparently had no idea what a Social Security number or card even was. It may have been the employer tagging them with the number so it could hire them,” according to Zoe Lofgren, chair of the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration.54
This permissiveness, corruption, and disregard for the rule of law has reached such a level that when a legal resident from Honduras who had her identity stolen by an illegal alien contacted 50 senators, 30 government departments, and two governors none of them were willing to help her. The victim continued to receive notices for back taxes on income that she had not earned from the IRS and collection agencies hounded her day and night for unpaid medical, furniture, and cell phone bills. Ultimately, she had to hire a private detective who found the identity thief and finally forced the police to take action.55
Employers Fight Changes
Just as the financial industry opposed limitations on its activities, the American business community consistently and aggressively opposes employment verification requirements that would limit a business’ ability to hire illegal aliens.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), the Associated Builders and Contractors, the American Council on International Personnel, and the HR Policy Association all actively oppose employment verification even though it offers significant benefits to both their members and their clients. For example, the use of E-Verify protects employers and especially HR personnel from criminal charges and fines should it be determined that a company has hired illegal aliens. Furthermore, as noted above, it could prevent nearly all of the job-related SSN-only identity theft and child identity theft. Yet, in spite of these benefits, these business and HR associations filed suit in federal court to stop President Bush’s executive order requiring federal contractors to use E-Verify from taking effect.56
In Arizona and Oklahoma, Chambers of Commerce also took legal action against employment verification legislation. If they succeed in blocking employment verification requirements, among other things, they will preserve their members’ ability to hire illegal aliens who are using fraudulent documents and stolen identities. Employers also sued the Department of Homeland Security to stop the issuance of Social Security mismatch letters, which would stop illegal aliens from using SSNs that belong to American citizens and legal residents.
SSA and IRS Protect Identity Thieves
The Social Security Administration turns a blind eye to illegal misuse of SSNs. It does not notify American citizens and legal residents when someone else uses their SSN nor does it inform law enforcement authorities. It does not remove a SSN that it has not issued from its database once that number begins to be used for fraudulent purposes. It would, however, issue that number to a new-born child, thereby giving the infant an instant credit history, possibly even an arrest record, and liability for any unpaid income taxes.57
Every year, the IRS receives millions of W-2s with names that don’t match their SSNs. In spite of the fact that a majority of these come from states with large illegal alien populations and high rates of identity theft, the IRS allows even this obvious illegal activity to go largely unchallenged. As Mark W. Everson, the Commissioner of the IRS, said “We want your money whether you are here legally or not and whether you earned it legally or not.”58
However, if an illegal alien using another person’s SSN doesn’t pay taxes on the income earned under that number, the IRS demands that the true owner of the number pay the outstanding taxes. In addition, if an illegal alien has already filed a return using an American citizen’s SSN, the IRS will require the citizen to clear the matter up before accepting and processing the citizen’s return. Even then, according to a report by the IRS’s Taxpayer Advocate, “The IRS does not tell the taxpayer that identity theft is a possible cause of the problem nor does it describe the consequences of an insufficient or untimely response.”59 Furthermore, according to Weld County Colorado Sheriff John Cooke “They [the IRS] know the Social Security numbers are stolen and they choose to ignore it.”60
Credit Bureaus Facilitate Identity Theft
Like the IRS and Social Security Administration, the major credit reporting bureaus fail to support the rule of law and protect citizens and legal residents from SSN-only identity theft. Citing privacy concerns, they don’t advise individuals when someone else starts using their SSN. They may, however, create sub-files under the true owners’ names without any notification and when individuals review their credit reports, the credit bureaus will hide the sub-files from them in order to protect the privacy of the persons who have stolen their SSNs. The credit reporting bureaus will, however, allow businesses or other clients to see the sub-files and they may combine the credit scores of all of the files in the primary owner’s record.61
Leaders Reward Fraud and Identity Theft
Ten states currently offer in-state tuition to illegal aliens who graduate from their high schools. When the beneficiaries of these programs are profiled in the press, some openly talk about their jobs and how hard they work to earn money to pay their tuition and living expenses. However, since the students are illegally in the United States and undocumented, the only way they could have gotten jobs with reputable employers was to commit two and possibly three felonies — document fraud, perjury on an I-9 form, and possibly identity theft.
In spite of this, when it appeared that Utah’s special in-state tuition program for illegal aliens would be terminated, the president of the University of Utah, Michael Young, told the campus newspaper that he was willing to reduce the number of scholarships available for American citizens and legal residents in order to provide larger scholarships for illegal aliens. According to the paper, Young said “the U would have to tap into other scholarship funds, which they would be willing to do, but they would essentially have to decide whether to give scholarships to three documented students or one undocumented student.”62
In 2008 when Utah legislators proposed a compromise bill that would have allowed students illegally in the United States to continue to be eligible for in-state tuition if the students would agree to refrain from working illegally, the University of Utah objected to the compromise. Gov. Jon Huntsman’s office labeled the effort “punitive.” Utah’s Attorney General said that it was not appropriate to entangle students in the identity theft debate. The Commissioner of Higher Education’s office took the position that the current law should remain unchanged. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints called on legislators to show compassion for illegal aliens and the Alliance for Unity, which is made up of the religious, political, business, and civic elite of Utah, issued a statement calling for in-state tuition to remain unchanged.
Throughout the debate on in-state tuition, religious, political, business, government, education, and civic leaders opposing the no-work requirements consistently sent the message that it is acceptable to break the law in order to earn money to pay for a college education. Those supporting the students further turned a blind eye to the fact that students illegally in the United States. won’t be able to work legally in the United States after graduation.
Why unskilled immigrants hurt America:
In the old days, we cried ‘give me your tired, your poor,’ but today’s welfare and social- services apparatus enormously raises the cost of immigration
July 23, 2006
By Steven Malanga
The day after Librado Velasquez arrived on Staten Island after a long, surreptitious journey from his home in Chiapas, Mexico, he headed out to a street corner to wait with other illegal immigrants looking for work. Velasquez, who had supported his wife, seven kids, and his in-laws as a campesino, or peasant farmer, until a 1998 hurricane devastated his farm, eventually got work, off the books, loading trucks at a small New Jersey factory, which hired illegals for jobs that required few special skills. The arrangement suited both, until a work injury sent Velasquez to the local emergency room, where federal law required that he be treated, though he could not afford to pay for his care. After five operations, he is now permanently disabled and has remained in the United States to pursue compensation claims.
“I have no other way to live except if I receive some other type of compensation. I need help, and I thought maybe my son could come and work here and support me here in the United States,” Velasquez said through an interpreter at New York City Council hearings.
Velasquez’s story illustrates some of the fault lines in the nation’s highly charged debate on immigration. Since the mid-1960s, America has welcomed nearly 30 million legal immigrants and received perhaps another 15 million illegal immigrants, numbers unprecedented in our history. These immigrants have picked our fruit, cleaned our homes, cut our grass, worked in our factories and washed our cars. But they have also crowded into our hospital emergency rooms, schools and government-subsidized aid programs, sparking a fierce debate about their contributions and costs.
Advocates of open immigration argue that welcoming the Librado Velasquezes of the world is essential for our American economy: our businesses need workers like him. Like tax cuts, supporters argue, immigration pays for itself.
But the tale of Librado Velasquez helps show why supporters are wrong about today’s immigration, as many Americans sense and so much research has demonstrated. America does not have a vast labor shortage that requires waves of low-wage immigrants; in fact, unemployment among unskilled workers is high — about 30 percent. Like Velasquez, many of the unskilled, uneducated workers now journeying here labor in shrinking industries, where they force out native workers, and many others work in industries in which cheap labor has led businesses to suspend investment in new technologies that would make them less labor-intensive.
These workers come at great cost. Increasing numbers of them arrive with little education and none of the skills necessary to succeed in a modern economy. Many may wind up stuck on our lowest economic rungs, where they will rely on something that immigrants of other generations didn’t have: a vast U.S. welfare and social- services apparatus that has enormously amplified the cost of immigration. Just as welfare reform and other policies are helping to shrink America’s underclass by weaning people off such social programs, we are importing a new, foreign-born underclass. As famed free-market economist Milton Friedman puts it: “It’s just obvious that you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state.”
Immigration can only pay off again for America if we reshape our policy, organizing it around what’s good for the economy by welcoming workers we truly need and excluding those who, because they have so little to offer, are likely to cost us more than they contribute, and who will struggle for years to find their place here.
EARLIER IMMIGRANTS HAD SKILLS
Hampering today’s immigration debate are misconceptions about the so-called first great migration 100 years ago, with which today’s immigration is often compared. We envision that first great migration as a time when multitudes of Emma Lazarus’ “tired,” “poor,” and “wretched refuse” made their way from destitution to American opportunity. If America could assimilate 24 million mostly desperate immigrants from that great migration, surely, so the story goes, we can absorb the millions of Librado Velasquezes now venturing here.
But that argument distorts the realities of the first great migration. Though fleeing persecution or economic stagnation in their homelands, that era’s immigrants brought important skills that fit easily into the American economy and helped supercharge the work force. A 1998 National Research Council report noted “that the newly arriving immigrant nonagricultural work force . . . was (slightly) more skilled than the resident American labor force”: 27 percent of them were skilled laborers, compared with only 17 percent of that era’s native-born work force.
Many of these immigrants quickly found a place in our economy, participating in the work force at a higher rate even than the native population. Their success at finding work sent many of them quickly up the economic ladder: those who stayed in America for at least 15 years, for instance, were just as likely to own their own business as native-born workers of the same age, one study found.
WELCOME TO THE WELFARE STATE
What the newcomers of the great migration did not find here was a vast social-services and welfare state. They had to rely on their own resources or those of friends, relatives or private, often ethnic, charities if things did not go well, which was why many of them left when the economy sputtered. One often hears that restrictive anti-immigration legislation ended the first great migration, but what really killed it was the crash of the American economy. Even with the 1920s quotas, America welcomed 4.1 million immigrants, but in the Depression of the 1930s, the number of foreign immigrants tumbled far below quota levels, to 500,000. With America’s streets no longer paved with gold, 60 percent of those already here left in a great remigration home.
Today’s immigration has turned out so differently in part because it emerged out of the 1960s civil rights and Great Society mentality. In 1965, a new immigration act eliminated the old system of national quotas, which critics saw as racist because it greatly favored European nations. Lawmakers created a set of broader immigration quotas for each hemisphere, and they added a new visa preference category for family members. Senate immigration subcommittee chairman Edward Kennedy reassured the country that, “contrary to the charges in some quarters, [the bill] will not inundate America with immigrants,” and “it will not cause American workers to lose their jobs.”
But, in fact, the law increased immigration by 60 percent in its first 10 years. Sojourners from poorer countries around the rest of the world arrived in ever-greater numbers, so that where half of immigrants in the 1950s had originated from Europe, 75 percent by the 1970s were from Asia and Latin America. Legal immigration to the United States soared from 2.5 million in the 1950s to 4.5 million in the 1970s to 7.3 million in the 1980s.
Meanwhile, the widening economic gap between the United States and many of its neighbors also pushed illegal immigration to levels that America had never seen. In particular, when Mexico’s move to a more centralized, state-run economy in the 1970s produced hyperinflation, the disparity between its stagnant economy and U.S. prosperity yawned wide. With Mexican farmworkers able to earn seven to 10 times as much in the United States, by the 1980s illegals were pouring across our border at the rate of about 225,000 a year, and U.S. sentiment rose for slowing the flow.
But an unusual coalition of business groups, unions, civil rights activists and church leaders thwarted the call for restrictions with passage of the inaptly named 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which legalized 2.7 million unauthorized aliens already here, supposedly in exchange for tougher penalties and controls against employers who hired illegals. The law proved no deterrent, however, because supporters, in subsequent legislation and court cases argued on civil rights grounds, weakened the employer sanctions, and the flow of illegals into the country rose to between 300,000 and 500,000 a year in the 1990s.
UNSKILLED IMMIGRANTS LOWER WAGES
The flood of immigrants, both legal and illegal, from countries with poor, ill-educated populations, has yielded a mismatch between today’s immigrants and the American economy and has left many workers poorly positioned to succeed for the long term. Unlike the immigrants of 100 years ago, whose skills reflected or surpassed those of the native work force, many of today’s arrivals, particularly the more than half who now come from Central and South America, are farmworkers in their home countries who come here with little education or even basic training in blue-collar occupations. Nearly two-thirds of Mexican immigrants, for instance, are high school dropouts, and most wind up doing either unskilled factory work or small-scale construction projects, or they work in service industries, where they compete for entry-level jobs against one another, against the adult children of other immigrants, and against native-born high school dropouts. Of the 15 industries employing the greatest percentage of foreign-born workers, half are low-wage service industries, including gardening, domestic household work, car washes, shoe repair and janitorial work.
Studies show that immigrants drive down wages of native-born workers and squeeze them out of certain industries. Harvard economists George Borjas and Lawrence Katz, for instance, estimate that low-wage immigration cuts the wages for the average native- born high school dropout 8 percent, or more than $1,200 a year. Even economists who don’t find as much of an impact on all native Americans admit that the new workers push down wages significantly for immigrants already here and native-born Hispanics. Consequently, the sheer number of immigrants competing for low-skilled service jobs makes economic progress difficult. A study of the New York City’s restaurant business, for instance, found that 60 percent of immigrant workers do not receive regular raises, while 70 percent had never been promoted.
ENDING UP ON SOCIETY’S MARGINS
In many American industries, waves of low-wage workers have also retarded investments that might lead to modernization and efficiency. Faced with a labor shortage in the early 1960s, when President Kennedy ended a 22-year-old guest-worker program that allowed 45,000 Mexican farmhands to cross over the border and harvest 2.2 million tons of California tomatoes for processed foods, farmers complained they would be forced out of business. Instead they swiftly automated, adopting a mechanical tomato-picking technology created more than a decade earlier. Today, just 5,000 better-paid workers—one-ninth the original work force—harvest 12 million tons of tomatoes using the machines.
The savings prompted by low-wage migrants may even be minimal in crops not easily mechanized. Agricultural economists Wallace Huffman and Alan McCunn of Iowa State University have estimated that without illegal workers, the retail cost of fresh produce would increase only about 3 percent in the summer-fall season and less than 2 percent in the winter-spring season, because labor represents only a tiny percent of the retail price of produce and because without migrant workers, America would probably import more foreign fruits and vegetables.
As foreign competition and mechanization shrink manufacturing and farmworker jobs, low-skilled immigrants are likely to wind up farther on the margins of our economy, where many already operate. For example, although only about 12 percent of construction workers are foreign-born, 100,000 to 300,000 illegal immigrants have carved a place for themselves as temporary workers on the fringes of the industry. In urban areas such as New York and Los Angeles, these mostly male illegal immigrants gather on street corners, in empty lots, or in Home Depot parking lots to sell their labor by the hour or the day, for $7 to $11 an hour. A New York study found that four in 10 employers who hire day laborers are private homeowners or renters wanting help with cleanup chores, moving or landscaping.
Because so much of our legal and illegal immigrant labor is concentrated in such fringe, low-wage employment, its overall impact on our economy is extremely small. A 1997 National Academy of Sciences study estimated that immigration’s net benefit to the American economy raises the average income of the native-born by up to $10 billion a year—about $120 per household.
If the benefits of the current generation of migrants are small, the costs are large and growing because of America’s vast range of social programs and the wide advocacy network that strives to hook low-earning legal and illegal immigrants into these programs. A 1998 National Academy of Sciences study found that more than 30 percent of California’s foreign-born were on Medicaid—including 37 percent of all Hispanic households — compared with 14 percent of native-born households. The foreign-born were more than twice as likely as the native-born to be on welfare, and their children were nearly five times as likely to be in means-tested government lunch programs.
Native-born households pay for much of this, the study found, because they earn more and pay higher taxes—and are more likely to comply with tax laws.
The study’s conclusion: immigrant families cost each native-born household in California an additional $1,200 a year in taxes.
This is a sharp turnaround since the 1970s, when immigrants were less likely to be using the social programs of the Great Society than the native-born population, said Harvard economist Borjas, who suggests that welfare and other social programs are a magnet drawing immigrants and keeping them here when they run into difficulty.
Pols around the country, intent on currying favor with ethnic voting blocs by appearing immigrant-friendly, have jumped on the benefits-for-immigrants bandwagon, endorsing “don’t ask, don’t tell” policies toward immigrants who register for benefits, giving tax dollars to centers that find immigrants work and aid illegals, and enacting legislation prohibiting local authorities from cooperating with federal immigration officials. In New York, for instance, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered city agencies to ignore an immigrant’s status in providing services. “This policy’s critical to encourage immigrant day laborers to access . . . children’s health insurance, a full range of preventive primary and acute medical care, domestic violence counseling, emergency shelters, police protection, consumer fraud protections, and protection against discrimination through the Human Rights Commission,” the city’s Immigrant Affairs Commissioner, Guillermo Linares, explains.
IMMIGRANTS DON’T CLIMB THE LADDER
Despite our cherished view of immigrants as rapidly climbing the economic ladder, new arrivals and their children face a lifetime of economic disadvantage, because they arrive here with shortcomings not easily overcome. Mexican immigrants, who are up to six times more likely to be high school dropouts than native-born Americans, not only earn substantially less than the native-born median, but the wage gap persists for decades after they’ve arrived. A study of the 2000 census data, for instance, shows that the cohort of Mexican immigrants between 25 and 34 who entered the United States in the late 1970s were earning 40 to 50 percent less than native-born Americans in that age group in 1980, but 20 years later they had fallen even further behind their native-born counterparts.
Given these realities, several of the major immigration reforms now under consideration simply don’t make economic sense — especially the guest-worker program favored by President Bush and the U.S. Senate. Careful economic research tells us that there is no significant shortfall of workers in essential American industries desperately needing supplement from a massive guest-worker program.
The potential woes of a guest-worker program far overshadow any economic benefit, given what we know about the long, troubled history of temporary-worker programs in developed countries. The economic and cultural consequences of guest-worker programs have been devastating in Europe, and we risk similar problems.
When post-World War II Germany permitted its manufacturers to import workers from Turkey to man the assembly lines, industry’s investment in productivity declined relative to such countries as Japan, which lacked ready access to cheap labor. Even worse, descendants of these workers have been chronically underemployed and now have a crime rate double that of German youths.
If low-wage immigration doesn’t pay off for the United States, legalizing illegals already here makes as little sense as importing new rounds of guest workers.
Merely granting illegal aliens legal status won’t suddenly catapult them up our mobility ladder, because it won’t give them the skills and education to compete.
At the same time, legalization will only spur new problems, as our experience with the 1986 immigration act should remind us. The legislation swamped the Immigration and Naturalization Service with masses of fraudulent, black-market documents by illegals hoping to gain permanent status, so that the INS eventually rubber-stamped tens of thousands of dubious applications.
END SOCIAL AID TO IMMIGRANTS
If we do not legalize them, what can we do with 11 million illegals? Ship them back home? Their presence here is a fait accompli, the argument goes, and only legalization can bring them above ground, where they can assimilate. But that argument assumes that we have only two choices: to decriminalize or deport. But what happened after the first great migration suggests a third way: to end the economic incentives that keep them here and prompt the same kind of remigration that saw some 60 percent of previous immigrants return home. We could prompt a great remigration home if, first off, state and local governments in jurisdictions such as New York and California would stop using their vast resources to aid illegal immigrants. Second, the federal government can require employers to verify Social Security numbers and immigration status before hiring, so that we bar illegals from many jobs. And it can refuse to give those who remain the same benefits as U.S. citizens.
Instead, we must look to other developed nations that have focused on luring workers who have skills that are in demand and who have the best chance of assimilating. Australia, for instance, gives preferences to workers grouped into four skilled categories: managers, professionals, associates of professionals, and skilled laborers. Such an immigration policy goes far beyond America’s employment-based immigration categories, like the H1-B visas, which account for about 10 percent of our legal immigration and essentially serve the needs of a few Silicon Valley industries.
America benefits even today from many of its immigrants, from the Asian entrepreneurs who have helped revive inner-city Los Angeles business districts to Haitians and Jamaicans who have stabilized neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn to Indian programmers who have spurred so much innovation in places like Silicon Valley and Boston’s Route 128. But increasingly over the last 25 years, such immigration has become the exception. It needs once again to become the rule.
Steven Malanga is a contributing editor of City Journal. This is adapted from an upcoming issue.