If East and West Germany were reunited, then why not North and South Korea?
On the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, all of Europe was celebrating. The following short video, Domino Effect:The Berlin Wall Falls Down Again, shows some of the more spectacular events in the celebration:
I was as shocked and surprised as anyone when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. I never dreamed that I would see it fall in my lifetime.
When World War II ended in 1945, much of the world was furious at the Germans. They blamed Nazi Germany for World War II, and they incorrectly also blamed Germany for World War I.
The WW II victors decided to partition Germany, to make sure that they wouldn’t start WW III. According to the 1945 Potsdam Agreement, Germany was partitioned into four regions, one to be administered and occupied by each of four countries — the Soviet Union, the UK, France, and the U.S. The last three of these regions were quickly merged into West Germany, while the Soviets retained control of what became East Germany.
The Soviets didn’t stop there. They took control of all of Eastern Europe — East Germany, Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Albania. These became known as “Iron Curtain countries” after Winston Churchill’s famous 1946 Iron Curtain speech:
“From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an iron curtain has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in some cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow. Athens alone — Greece with its immortal glories — is free to decide its future at an election under British, American and French observation. The Russian-dominated Polish Government has been encouraged to make enormous and wrongful inroads upon Germany, and mass expulsions of millions of Germans on a scale grievous and undreamed-of are now taking place. The Communist parties, which were very small in all these Eastern States of Europe, have been raised to pre-eminence and power far beyond their numbers and are seeking everywhere to obtain totalitarian control. Police governments are prevailing in nearly every case, and so far, except in Czechoslovakia, there is no true democracy.”
Soviet authorities built border fences separating east and west Europe, and border guards shot and killed anyone who tried to escape to the west.
But there was one gaping hole in the Iron Curtain — the city of Berlin. Berlin was physically located inside of East Germany, but according to the Potsdam Agreement, Berlin itself was partitioned, with East Berlin controlled by the Soviets, and West Berlin still part of West Germany. This was never a comfortable situation, as the Soviets in 1948 tried to blockade West Berlin, and prevent supplies from reaching the city. President Harry Truman ordered the Berlin Airlift to supply tons of food and other supplies.
Throughout the 1950s, the vast differences between east and west became apparent to the world. People living in western European countries, such as UK, France and West Germany, enjoyed democracy and thriving economies. But people in Iron Curtain countries were oppressed and tortured for political crimes, and they lived in poverty. News stories coming out of eastern Europe told of the indignities and hardship of daily life, such as having to wait in a queue for hours just to buy a roll of toilet paper.
Millions of people who were trapped in the east would escape by making their way to East Berlin and crossing over to West Berlin and to freedom. Finally, the Soviets could stand it no more. On August 12, 1961, the East German army began tearing up streets that connected East and West Berlin, and installed a barbed wire barrier encircling all of West Berlin, guarded by troops ordered to shoot to kill anyone who tried to defect. Thus, the border was closed within 24 hours. After that, the East Germans replaced the barbed wired with 12 foot high concrete barriers, guarded by watch towers.
The Berlin Wall split friends, families and lovers for decades. People who were trapped in the East could no longer travel to the West, and people in the West didn’t want to go East, for fear of being trapped there. Thousands of East Germans tried to escape by climbing over the wall, and hundreds were killed by East German border guards.
By the 1980s, the Berlin Wall was becoming intolerable to the Germans themselves. Germany entered a generational Unraveling era and, as indicated by the name, all the austere measures that were imposed after WW II to prevent a new war began to unravel. A triggering event may have been President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 speech in Berlin, in which he said, “Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”
During the next few years, an incredible domino effect occurred. First, Hungary opened its border with Austria, permitting East Europeans to escape to the West via that route. Mass demonstrations began in East Germany, and continued for weeks. On November 9, a televised news program mistakenly reported that the Berlin borders would be opened immediately. Huge crowds of East Germaners mobbed the border gates, and border guards were faced with the choice of shooting into the crowd or opening the gates. Fortunately, they chose the latter.
Germany was reunited within a few months after the fall of the Berlin Wall. There was still fear among WW II survivors over the reunification of Germany — fear that a reunited Germany would once again become a military threat to Europe. I recall seeing Henry Kissinger on television saying something like, “I will have no trouble dying happily if Germany is never reunited in my lifetime.”
Recent news reports indicate that British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and French President Francois Mitterand feared that a united Germany would a “unstoppable force” in an unbalanced Europe.
Very quickly, Communism collapsed in other East European countries, and within a couple of years, the Soviet Union collapsed. Johnny Carson joked that America was the only country that still had a Communist Party.
That was a great joke, but of course there are still two Communist countries remaining — North Korea and Cuba. Why can’t North and South Korea be reunited as Germany was, and why can’t Communism in Cuba end, as it did in East Germany?
Generational Dynamics provides some answers.
Generational Dynamics views civil wars very differently from external wars. A civil war pits neighbor against neighbor, brother against brother, husband against wife. If a country fights an external war then, win or lose, the country can celebrate or mourn and then move on. But a country can never celebrate a civil war, and may need a century or more to really move on.
East Germany became partitioned from West Germany by a political decision, not by a civil war. By the time the generational Unraveling era had arrived, there had been two generations of young people who had no personal memory of WW II and didn’t fear a reunited Germany, so the political decision was reversed.
But the partitioning of Korea was no simple political decision. It was a bitter civil war between two groups of Koreans. It’s not a surprise that reunification is difficult or impossible — without another war.
Cuba is a different story. Cuba also had a civil war — Fidel Castro’s Cuban Revolution that climaxed in 1959. Cuba today is in the middle of a generational Unraveling era, and when Fidel Castro stepped down, replaced by his brother Raoul, there were some signs that the Communist economy was beginning to unravel.
The fall of the Berlin Wall ended the story of East Germany, but the stories of North Korea and Cuba are still being told.
Update: I left China out of this discussion because I didn’t want to lengthen the article, but a web site reader said I should have included it. Briefly, China also had a major civil war, Mao Zedong’s Communist Revolution, climaxing in 1949. However, China is different from the others. It’s nominally a Communist country today, having a repressive government that jails, tortures and executes political dissidents. But China has given up control of many parts of the economy, so China today would more accurately be called a Fascist country, rather than a Communist country. (Paragraphs added, Nov 11)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Europe thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (11-Nov-2009) Permanent Link
The Islamic Republic of Iran versus the Persian Republic of Iran.
I’ve written several times about the belief of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Mahdaviat — the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or “the 13′th Imam” or “the Hidden Imam”) is coming to save mankind. See, for example, “Iran and Ahmadinejad are waiting for the Mahdi” This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ. (There’s also a Buddhist belief in the Maitreya — that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment.)
In that article, I quoted a couple of paragraphs from his speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 17, 2005:
“From the beginning of time, humanity has longed for the day when justice, peace, equality and compassion envelop the world. All of us can contribute to the establishment of such a world. When that day comes, the ultimate promise of all Divine religions will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being who is heir to all prophets and pious men. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace.O mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace.”
Now, a new BBC documentary by Edward Stourton sheds new light on the depth of this belief, and the way that it’s affecting Iranian foreign policy.
According to Stourton, Ahmadinejad, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and top level government officials are members of a narrow Shia Muslim sect called the “Hasteners” — people who believe that the return of the Imam is imminent, and that it is the duty of the faithful to take whatever steps they can to hasten the return.
It’s as if President Obama, or some other Christian political leader, belonged to a sect that advocated starting a nuclear war in order to hasten the second coming of Christ.
Thus, Shia Islam has two conflicting doctrines that guide the faithful in their lives. One doctrine, known as Intizar (patient waiting) maintains that the best that believers can do is to be patient and wait until the Imam decides to return. That doctrine is opposed by another known as Ta’ajil (to hasten). The Ta’ajilis (hasteners) insist that believers should seek to unite the entire Islamic community and lead it into battle against the “Infidel” with the view of provoking a final showdown for global domination, to hasten the return of the Mahdi.
Thus, Ahmadinejad is quoted as saying, “Do you know why we wish to have chaos at any price? Because after the chaos, we shall see the greatness of Allah.”
And so we have Ahmadinejad doing things like talking about pushing Israel into the sea or pursuing policies that would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. The implication is that Ahmadinejad is pursuing these policies in order to provoke world chaos (presumably, chaos in the form of war) in order to hasten the return of the Mahdi.
Stourton quotes Mehdi Khalaji, a Shia theologian who studied in Qom and a senior fellow of the Washington Institute:
“We call apocalyptics people who believe in the imminent return of Hidden Imam and people who believe that worshippers have some duties more than prayer in order to prepare the ground for the return of Hidden Imam. Apocalyptics, they’ve been always in margin of the religious community and also political structure of the country. But with Ahmadinejad, this is the first time that they take over the political power. … [this apocalyptic trend] is frightening, and it is not only frightening for the international community….”
Of course, not everyone agrees with that explanation of Ahmadinejad’s policies. Stourton quotes Professor Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews:
“Ahmadinejad and the others, yes, they do believe that the hidden imam will arrive when the world has reached the most disastrous situation. Whether they feel they have to help that along is a different matter. I think that’s where you’ve got to be a little bit careful. I haven’t seen anything which suggests that. I mean he hasn’t said anything specific. That’s not to say that he might not at some stage. It’s perhaps a question of semantics and a question of being quite pedantic about it but it’s important because people do then extrapolate from things that he has not said yet – whole policy decisions, which I think are unhelpful.”
And so the question is whether the religious beliefs of Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, and other senior leaders of Iran’s government are pursuing a policy of provoking war BECAUSE OF their religious beliefs.
Religion doesn’t cause war; war causes religion
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the view that Ahmadinejad decided at one point, perhaps in his childhood, to join a sect called the “Hasteners,” and then later was guided by those religious beliefs to become a politician with the job of provoking world war — that view makes no sense all. What makes much more sense is the view that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have adopted a certain set of policies designed to keep themselves in power, and that they’ve adopted a version of the “Hastener” religious doctrine to justify those policies.
I discussed the role of religion in Generational Dynamics at length in 2007 in “Book review review: Christopher Hitchens: ‘God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything.’”
In the past few years, Christopher Hitchens has made a career of claiming that religion is the cause of all wars, with the bizarre implication that if we could only get rid of all religions, then we could get rid of all wars.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the opposite is true. Wars have a political component as well as a military component, and the political component requires the political leaders to justify the moral superiority that’s required to kill other people. There are many possible ways to do that, but the easiest vehicle is religion. Thus, Osama bin Laden may be attacking Western interests because he hates his father, but he justifies his terrorism by talking about infidels and 72 virgins.
What we’re seeing in Iran right now appears to be an archetypical example of how war causes religion.
I’ve written many articles on this web site describing how Iran’s strategy evolved, and it has nothing to do with religion. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was a massive civil war that brought into power a new group of politicians who justified their victory in religious terms. They achieved this victory by blaming all their problems on outsiders — America, Britain, Israel, and later Iraq. They took over the American embassy in Tehran, and held 52 American hostages for 444 days.
They described Iran as an innocent victim of outside exploiters and invaders, and in doing so, they unified the entire country behind their Revolution.
Now, they’re trying to repeat that strategy, by attempting to blame America, Britain and Israel as interfering, or threatening to attack, the same innocent victim, Iran. But that strategy worked in 1979 because Iran was in a generational Crisis era; today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, when that kind of strategy cannot possibly succeed.
(For information about generational eras, see “Basics of Generational Dynamics.” For information about America’s Awakening era in the 1960s, see “Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love.” For an extensive analysis of Iran’s strategy, see “China ‘betrays’ Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount.”)
When the big street protests began in Tehran after the June 12 presidential elections, every mainstream analyst that I’m aware of, including the BBC and Stratfor, predicted that the government would crush the protests and that they would end quickly, as happened in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in China. I wrote that, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Tiananmen Square is the wrong historical analogy; the best analogy is America’s Summer of Love in 1967, which led to almost a decade of political conflict, and failed presidencies of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon.
In fact, the street protests are continuing and growing, especially since colleges opened in the fall.
Last week, Iran celebrated the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the American embassy in Tehran, on November 4, 1979. The government scheduled large pro-government demonstrations, but they were met with large anti-government counter-demonstrations.
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the student protests are gaining in strength and are presenting a fundamental threat to the Ahmadinejad / Khamenei government, just as America’s 1960s protests threatened the Johnson and Nixon administrations.
If Ahmadinejad and Khamenei succeed in politically surviving the protestors, then the “Hastener” sect will be given a huge boost. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that would be a typical example of how a new religious sect gains traction. On the other hand, if they fail, and they’re forced to step down, then the “Hastener” sect will also suffer a major setback, and that would be an example of how a religious sect can fizzle.
An Islamic Republic or a Persian Republic?
Iran is going through a generational Awakening era, and really it’s quite typical of such eras. There is massive political chaos, with occasional violence that fizzles fairly quickly. We’ve seen this in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, three Awakening era countries that I’ve written a lot about on this web site, all having had crisis wars in the 1980s. The political chaos always reflects the themes of the preceding crisis war, and always pits the generations of war survivors, who attempt to impose austere measures to prevent a new war, against the younger generation, born after the war, rebelling against those austere measures.
Today, there are three major political factions in Iran:
- The current government, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These are the group of crisis war survivors that have held political power since the 1979 revolution. With regard to the question of the return of the Mahdi, they tend to be “Hasteners.”
- The “Opposition”: Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi. These were the candidates that opposed Ahmadinejad in the June 12 presidential election. They lead a group of reformers that want to leave the Islamic Republic in place, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, but they want to replace Ahmadinejad with someone more moderate. With regard to the question of the return of the Mahdi, they tend to be “Patient Awaiters.”
- The “Kids”: the younger generation, the 70% of the population born after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Opposition and the Kids were allies during and after the June 12 election, but they have entirely different goals. Unlike the Opposition, the Kids are pro-Western and pro-American, and want to dismantle the religious Islamic Republic, and change it to a secular Persian Republic. The two groups are allied for now, but at some time in the future they may be enemies.
One thing that should be clear from the above description is that even if Ahmadinejad steps down and is replaced by someone from the Opposition, the riots and demonstrations won’t stop.
It’s also pretty clear that as the older generations die off, and the size of the younger generations grows from 70% to 80% to 90%, the Kids are going to win. The only question is how long it will take, and how chaotic the transition will be, over the next 10-15 years.
The growing theological dispute
At the beginning of this report, I referenced a new BBC documentary by Edward Stourton. That documentary was triggered when Stourton submitted some questions to Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri via his web site. Montazeri is one of Shia Islam’s most respected theologians, and much to Stourton’s surprise, Montazeri answered the questions with detailed replies.
Here are some excerpts:
“Q: What is your view of claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in contact with the Hidden Imam and that his government is working for the return of the Mahdi? …Montazeri: During his occultation or disappearance it is possible to establish contact with His Holiness the Hidden Imam (may God speed his return). But anyone who made such contact would never dream of announcing it publicly because making use of such claims for propaganda and political purposes would be contrary to the qualities required for such contact. The best way to prepare for the re-appearance of the Hidden Imam would be to act in accordance with Islamic teachings in order to establish justice and Islamic values in society.
Q: How far has the current regime fallen – in your view – from the ideal of the Islamic Republic?
Montazeri: Although some sincere and faithful people have made great efforts and endeavours now and in the past to implement the goals of the revolution, unfortunately, due to the short-sightedness, ineptitude and lack of wisdom, as well as arrogance and neglect of the demands of the majority of the people by a small inefficient minority, many of the initial ideals of the revolution have not been fulfilled. In view of this, our people are very dissatisfied and they protest against the deviations from the goals of the revolution. …
Q: What (if anything) should Iranian clerics do to bring about change in Iran?
Montazeri: The important action that the esteemed Iranian clerics can and must take in order to initiate reforms, to change the present situation and the current policies, must be in step with the people – with intellectuals and experts, with the members of the elite and with committed political activists. The clerics should tell the people of their rights. They must also remain faithful the values of the revolution and to the goals of the reforms. Otherwise, their social standing among the people will become weaker and shakier.”
The fact that a high level Iranian cleric would be openly critical of the government with the press shows how deeply the Islamic government is under attack.
Effect of Iran’s conflict on Islam
If you look at the 20th century from the point of view of Islam, there have been two major earth-shaking events.
The first was the destruction of the Ottoman empire after World War I. Centered in Istanbul, Turkey, the Caliphate had been the office of the supreme spiritual leader for Sunni Muslims worldwide, and it was abolished, leaving Sunni Muslims around the world rudderless. After several decades passed, this rudderlessness turned into al-Qaeda and international terrorism.
The second was Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979. For the first time since the 1920s, there was an Islamic state, and a revolutionary method for achieving it. Unfortunately for the Sunnis, Iran is a Shia Muslim state, so it didn’t help them. But it did reveal a path by which a Sunni Muslim state might appear again.
Just as Iran’s leaders have been trying to recapture their own revolutionary unity by provoking a confrontation or even an attack by Western powers, Islamist Sunnis have been trying to provoke a war in various countries, in the hope of creating a Sunni Muslim state.
They’ve tried this in Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, and it is still the main goal of al-Qaeda. The inspiration provided by Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979 has been a guiding light to Islamist Sunnis around the world for 30 years.
The interesting question then arises: What will Islamist Sunnis around the world conclude about Iran’s Islamic Revolution, now that the Revolution appears to be unraveling? Will they still try to follow the same path, or will they change tactics in some way, trying to learn from Iran’s experience? Only time will tell, and this is something to be watched.
In fact, Sunni clerics in other countries are beginning to point to a possibly fatal flaw in Iran’s system of government: the core belief that supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei should have the final say on all Iranian foreign and domestic policies.
What is happening in Iran at present, is “an explosion as a result of a deep existing contradiction in the political system in Iran, which has a religious base, and at the same time seeks to pass on authority through democratic means,” according to Sunni scholar Khaled al Dakheel, a professor at King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Basically, the question is how you can have a democracy of the people, when a single religious leader has the final say on everything? At its core, this is a political struggle over the question of separation of Mosque and State, a conflict that occurs, in one way or another, in almost every country.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the major trends have not changed. As I’ve said many times, it’s my expectation that Iran will be the ally, not the enemy, of America, Israel and the West, in the Clash of Civilizations World War. In Asia, Iran will be allied with India, Russia and America against China and Sunni Muslim countries, including Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and the Arabs.
The theological debate and political chaos in Iran are part of the scenario that will take us in that direction.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (9-Nov-2009) Permanent Link
Is it a tactical manoeuver or the end of an era?
Mahmoud Abbas was born in 1935 in what is now northern Israel. His family were among hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who fled or were driven from their homes in the genocidal 1948 war between Palestinians and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
So as a young teenager, Abbas and all his friends were fully exposed to the horrors of war all around them. This is the kind of “generational child abuse” that Generational Dynamics talks about. Kids who live through this kind of experience, like America’s Silent Generation, grow up never wanting their own kids or grandkids to experience something so awful.
So when Abbas was elected President of the Palestinian Authority in January, 2005, it appeared to the world that the “Mideast problem” would finally be solved. Abbas was considered more “moderate” than his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, and Abbas was committed to implementing the Mideast Roadmap to Peace that had been put forth by the Bush Administration in May, 2003. With Arafat gone, and Abbas in place as President, the Roadmap would finally be implemented, leading to two states, Israel and a Palestinian state, existing side by side in the Mideast, in eternal peace and happiness.
Actually, the euphoria surrounding Abbas’s election was ridiculous, as were the unrealistically high expectations that Abbas had raised during the campaign. As I wrote at the time, one day he would speak in Arabic and promise the Palestinians the “right of return” to the lands occupied by the “Zionist enemy.” The next day, he would speak in English, and promise to rid Palestine of the terrorists.
(The obvious comparison is with President Barack Obama, who made similarly extravagant and unrealistic campaign promises — cure global warming, provide universal health care, close Guantanamo, leave Iraq in peace, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, restore the stock market bubble, and dismantle President Bush’s war against terror. Now we’re seeing that he appears to be failing at every one of these promises.)
Instead of bringing peace, Abbas’s presidency has only made things worse. There have been three “small” wars: Israelis vs Hizbollah in Lebanon in 2006, Palestinian Fatah vs Hamas in Gaza in 2008, and Israelis vs Hamas in Gaza in 2009. There’s no reduction in tension whatsoever, and it’s only a matter of time before one of these small wars triggers a larger war.
The latest crisis occurred because one of President Obama’s unrealistic promises intersected with one of President Abbas’s unrealistic promises. Since taking office, President Obama has demanded that the Israelis stop building settlements on land that would be part of the Palestinian nation under the Roadmap to Peace. As recently as June, in his speech in Cairo, directed to the Muslim world, President Obama said, “At the same time, Israelis must acknowledge that just as Israel’s right to exist cannot be denied, neither can Palestine’s. The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. This construction violates previous agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace. It is time for these settlements to stop.”
But the Obama administration appeared to change policy last week, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised as “unprecedented” Israel’s compromise offer to slow down, but not stop, construction of settlements.
This change of position has infuriated may Arabs and Palestinians, and it triggered Abbas’s decision to step down as President. Abbas put it as diplomatically as possible when he said,
“We pledged, us and the Israelis, with the participation and sponsorship of the international community, to reach a two-state solution. But month after month, year after year, there was procrastination and the increase of Jewish settlement and Israeli settlement on our land, which compromises the credibility of negotiations. …The stated position of the United States in relation to settlements and the Judaisation and annexation of Jerusalem are well-known and appreciated by us. However, we were surprised by their favoring of the Israeli position. But the problem which requires a solution is … the ongoing Israeli settlement activities in all of the West Bank and especially in occupied East Jerusalem, which is facing an unprecedented change to its character.”
It’s impossible to know at this time if Abbas seriously plans to step down, or whether he’s using the threat of stepping down as a negotiating strategy.
If Abbas does stop down and is replaced by someone younger, it will be the end of an era. Someone younger will certainly be more demanding and confrontational than Abbas, and this will change the political climate in the Mideast.
As I’ve been saying since 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that we’re headed for a major crisis war in the Mideast, re-fighting the genocidal 1940s war between Arabs and Jews. I speculated in 2003 that the death of Yasser Arafat would trigger such a war, but although things have gotten steadily worse since Arafat’s death, the major war is yet to come.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Mideast thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (7-Nov-2009) Permanent Link
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