———List of major Generational Dynamics predictions

These are the major predictions posted on this web site since 2003, using the generational forecasting methodology. (27-Mar-2008)

Summary Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has been shown to be false. This article contains a brief list of major predictions. This list will be updated from time to time. Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has been shown to be false. There is no analyst, journalist, politician or web site in the world with anything close to the predictive success of this web site.

Contents – This page First appearance in 2003 First appearance in 2004 First appearance in 2005 First appearance since 2006 Clash of Civilizations Summary

Note that Generational Dynamics does not predict actual events. What it predicts is the public reactions to unpleasant events. It predicts the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people.

For reference, here’s a brief list of the major predictions that have appeared on this web site since 2003, and the year of first appearance. This list will be updated from time to time. For more details about any specific prediction, refer to web log for the latest articles on the subject.

First appearance in 2003

• Macro economy (2003): We’re entering a new 1930s style Great Depression, and the stock market will fall to Dow 4000 or lower.
  The disappearance (death or retirement) of the Great Depression survivors has left us with generations of people with no memory of its horrors, and no fear of repeating the credit abuses that brought it about. The stock market is overpriced by a factor of close to 250%. See: “How to compute the ‘real value’ of the stock market” and “System Dynamics and the Failure of Macroeconomics Theory.”
• Macro economy (2003): We’re in a deflationary spiral, not a hyperinflationary period, and prices will fall significantly.
  Some people are claiming that hyper-inflation will make the dollar worthless (like the Weimar republic). Actually, the credit crunch is leading the country into a deflationary spiral. See also: “The bubble that broke the world” for a fascinating narrative of what happened in 1931, and how it tells us what’s coming today.
• Palestine/Israel (2003): The “Roadmap to Peace” would fail. Once Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon disappeared, the region would descend into chaos, leading to a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs.
  Jews and Arabs will re-fight the genocidal war that was triggered in 1948 by the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The disappearance of Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon signals a major generational change leading to that war. See: “Will Mideast roadmap bring peace?” and “Ariel Sharon – Israel’s political earthquake.”
• Iraq (2003): There would be no civil war and no anti-American uprising, and any that start would fizzle quickly.
  Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. A crisis civil war in Iraq is thus impossible; if any civil war occurs, then it will fizzle quickly. Al-Qaeda in Iraq tried to incite a civil war by bombing an ancient Shi’ite mosque in February, 2006. However, it fizzled within a year or so, and was stopped by President Bush’s “surge,” despite widespread belief that the surge would be completely unsuccessful.See: “Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq,” and “The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

  Contrast the “Iraq civil war” prediction with the “Darfur civil war” prediction (below). I gave opposite predictions for these two wars, and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur at different points on the generational timeline.

• Iran (2003): Pro-American and pro-Western student demonstrations (like America in the 60s) would continue.
  Like Iraq, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, leading to a “generation gap,” and widespread demonstrations by the college-age generation against the older generations.See: “Iran’s President Ahmadinejad facing a growing ‘generation gap’”
• America (2003): Unlike the 60s, there would be almost no student antiwar demonstrations, and any that start would fizzle quickly.
  For years, people have been predicting massive student demonstrations against the Iraq war, as in the Vietnam war. But that’s impossible today, because America is in a generational Crisis era, and these student demonstrations only during generational Awakening eras, like America in the 1960s. See: “Why aren’t college students protesting against the Iraq war?”

First appearance in 2004

• America (2004): Men and women would return to stereotypical gender roles, with women focused increasingly on the children.
  People misunderstand the 1950s if they think that women were “oppressed” at that time. Actually, they had survived the horrors of WW II, and considered it their right to stay at home with the kids, and not be forced to work at distasteful “Rosie the Riveter” jobs. Feminism changed that attitude, and moved women into the workplace. But now, young college-educated women are massively deciding they’d rather stay home with the kids. See: “Gender gap replaced by a marriage gap or mother gap” and “‘It’s going to be the 1950s all over again.’”
• America (2004): Politicians will resort to bitter fighting, and become less and less able to get anything done.
  This happens during generational Crisis eras. The American government has been almost paralyzed into inaction since 2004, and the same is true of France, Israel, Japan, China, and other countries.The reason for this paralysis is that the generations that survived WW II are gone now. Those people did some great things — they created the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They created these organizations and managed them for decades with one purpose in mind: That their children and grandchildren would never have to go through anything so horrible as World War II. Now all those people are gone, and the people left behind have no idea what’s going on or what to do. They’re unable to lead or govern. All they know how to do is whine and complain, and wait until the next disaster, the next world war, forces them to do great things as well.
• Darfur (2004): The UN would be completely irrelevant, and would have no effect on the Darfur civil war. It will continue until it’s run its course.
  After the 1994 Rwanda genocide, the UN promised “never again.” But in fact it’s impossible for politicians to stop a Crisis war, any more than politicians can stop a tsunami. See: “Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant.”Contrast the “Iraq civil war” prediction (above) with the “Darfur civil war” prediction. I gave opposite predictions for these two wars, and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur at different points on the generational timeline.
• China (2004): China is headed for a major internal civil war, as well as a war with the U.S. over Taiwan with absolute certainty.
  China has repeatedly threatened the US with war over Taiwan. See: “China approaches Civil War,” and “Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou overwhelmingly wins Taiwan presidency.”

First appearance in 2005

• Europe (2005): The proposed Constitution would NOT be approved. There will be a new European war, one component of which will probably be France versus Britain.
  Of all the predictions I’ve made, this is the one that surprises most people. My response is this: England and France have had regular wars at least since 1066, and there’s absolutely nothing new this time that would change that. Many were surprises. The War of the Spanish Succession was a great shock to everyone, and its climaxing battle, the 1709 battle of Malplaquet, was a great shock to everyone for its genocidal ferocity. The French Revolution and subsequent Napoleonic wars were a surprise. The 1871 Paris Commune was a civil war, but it was such a shock that I think a lot of people today still don’t believe it could have happened.See: “France rejects EU Constitution,” and “Angela Merkel tries to unify a fractured Europe on its 50th birthday.”
• Lebanon (2005): Despite widespread fear following many assassinations, there will be NO new civil war in Lebanon.
  After Lebanon’s brutal 1980s civil war, including the bloody Sabra and Shatila massacre, the Lebanese people have been terrified that something might trigger another civil war. It was feared that the assassination of Hafiq Hariri would be that trigger. However, Generational Dynamics says that a new civil war at this time is impossible. See: “Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock.”

First appearance since 2006

• Lebanon (2006, as war began): Israel would fight an aggressive “existential war,” while Hizbollah would fight half-heartedly.
  The summer 2006 Israeli/Hizbollah war in Lebanon was FASCINATING from the point of view of generational theory. Israel, in a generational Crisis era, panicked and fought the war in a “hot” fashion, with maximum force. Hizbollah warriors, in a generational Awakening era, fought the war in a “cool” fashion, launching missiles and returning home to the arms of their wives. See: “Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose,” and “How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah”
• Sri Lanka (2006): In contrast to Burma, Kenya and Tibet (below), the new violence WILL spiral into a genocidal crisis war between Tamils and Sinhalese.
  Formerly known as Ceylon, Sri Lanka’s last crisis war was World War II and the 1947 Partition, so the country is in a generational Crisis era. See: “Sri Lanka appears close to war” and “Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels.”(Added 3-Jul-08)
• Burma / Myanmar (2007): The new burst of violence would fizzle soon, and would not spiral into a civil war.
  Burma’s last crisis war was the civil war that began in 1948 and climaxed in 1958. See: “Burma: Growing demonstrations by the ‘88 Generation’ raise fears of new slaughter.”
• Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years.
  Kenya’s last crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that began in 1952 and climaxed in 1956. See: “Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war.”
• Tibet (2008): Anti-China violence in Lhasa will fizzle, but there could be explosive violence between Han and Tibetans in the provinces east of Tibet.
  The Tibet situation is very interesting for generational theory because Tibet and eastern China are on different generational timelines. And so the places where the two groups meet, in the provinces east of Tibet, are worth close examination. See: “China’s problems mount, as Tibet violence is linked to summer Olympics.”

Clash of Civilizations

• World (2003): A new “Clash of Civilizations” world war.
  

  Conflict risk level for next six months
  W. Europe	1	Arab Israeli	3
  Russia Caucasus	3	Kashmir	3
  China	2	North Korea	2
  Financial	3	Bird flu	3
  Key: 1=Low risk 2=Med 3=High

  The adjoining “conflict risk” graphic (updated on 8-Aug-2008) shows the “Six most dangerous regions in world” — places where a regional war would most likely spread to a world war because of interlocking treaties and alliances. In addition, a worldwide financial crisis or a bird flu pandemic would also trigger a world war.The Clash of Civilizations world war will be fought between big powerful adversaries — a new “axis” most likely consisting of China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea and their allies, versus America, India, Russia, Japan, and the UK and their allies.

Summary

The predictive value of generational theory was established by Neil Howe and the late William A. Strauss, the founding fathers of generational theory. In their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning, they write “Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning. … A spark will ignite a new mood. Today, that same spark would flame briefly but then extinguish…. This time, though, it will catalyze a Crisis.” Thus, they didn’t predict the 9/11 attacks, but they did predict that some event, some spark, would change the mood of the American public into a Crisis mood. It’s not the event that can be predicted; it’s the attitude of the public to unpleasant shocks and surprises that can be predicted.

Contents – This page First appearance in 2003 First appearance in 2004 First appearance in 2005 First appearance since 2006 Clash of Civilizations Summary

Strauss and Howe developed and established generational theory for the Anglo-American timeline since the War of the Roses in the late 1400s.

Generational Dynamics extends generational theory to be valid for all places and times in history. This involves major theoretical extensions of the generational model, to the point where it’s now a very sophisticated scholarly subject that could serve as a college undergraduate or graduate major. It’s also an interdisciplinary subject, involving history, comparative history, mathematics, chaos theory, sociology, population dynamics, economics, macroeconomics, system dynamics, and even the theory of evolution.

In 2003, when the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology was developed, this web site was set up as a testing ground. Since 2003, over a thousand articles have appeared on this web site, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those articles are still available on this web site, so anyone who wishes can go back and find the original predictions.

Note that it’s easy to get a million predictions right: Just make two million predictions. That’s why it’s important to note that no Generational Dynamics prediction has turned out to be wrong.

The generational methodology can be used to make very accurate predictions, but only for certain types of predictions.

The reason for this success is because the concepts of Chaos Theory and System Dynamics, both well-established disciplines, have been applied to determine what kinds of predictions can be made. Thus, all these predictions are “trend predictions,” not “chaotic event” predictions.

It’s impossible to predict the attitudes or behaviors of any person or any group of politicians, but it IS possible to predict the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and how they react to events. The success of this web site since 2003 indicates that this claim is true.