Whites in CA ‘below the replacement’ level
California’s white population has declined since 2000 at an unprecedented rate, hastening the day when Hispanics will be the state’s largest population group, according to newly released state figures.
There were half a million fewer whites in California in 2008 than in 2000, a period when the state’s overall population grew by 4 million to 38.1 million, according to a study released Thursday by the state Department of Finance.
By 2008, whites made up 40 percent of Californians, down from 47 percent at the turn of the century. In 2000, Hispanics comprised 32 percent of the population; that number grew to 37 percent in 2008.
Analysts said the decline can be attributed to two main causes – a natural population decrease as Baby Boomers enter their later years and die at a faster rate than younger whites have children, and a migration from California since 2001 among whites who sought affordable housing as real estate costs soared.
“This is the first decade to see a year-over-year consistent population decrease due to natural causes,” said Mary Heim, chief of the Finance Department’s demographic research unit.
The study also confirmed projections that a steadily growing Hispanic population will surpass whites as the state’s largest racial demographic in 2016. Hispanics are expected to become a majority of all Californians in 2042, Heim said.
Most Bay Area counties reflected the state’s shifting numbers – Alameda County, for example, dropped from 41 percent white to 36 percent – while showing spikes in Hispanic, Asian and multirace categories.
Yet, San Francisco’s racial mix remained consistent. Forty-four percent of the city was white in 2008, 30 percent was Asian and 14 percent was Hispanic, just as it was in 2000. Only the city’s African American population showed a slight decline, from 7 percent to 6 percent.
Below replacement level
Hans Johnson, a demographer at the Public Policy Institute of California, said white women in recent decades have tended to pursue higher-education degrees and stay in the workplace, leading them to have fewer children. The white population is now “below the replacement” level, Johnson said. “They’re simply not replacing themselves.”
The median age among California’s whites is 44, while the median age for the Hispanic population is 28, according to the study.
Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, said the study also reflected how skyrocketing real estate prices pushed workers from California during the housing bubble from 2005 through 2007.
“This is a good look at what happens when your housing prices get way out of line with the rest of the nation,” Levy said. “It will be interesting to see what happens when the market corrects itself.”
Reverse of a trend
Johnson said migration into California was a national trend until the 1990s, when the number of out-of-state transplants began to decline.
Lower-paid California workers headed to cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Seattle, where they could make similar wages but pay less for housing.
“California is no longer attracting large numbers of people from other states,” Johnson said. “And a lot of those who did come to California from other states were white, reflecting the ethnic composition of the country as a whole.
“Now,” he said, “that flow has dried up.”
The decline among whites and increase in other groups in California is a long-standing trend, Johnson said.
“It’s just faster now.”
Census data shows white middle class flight from California’s socialist confiscatory taxation and regulatory policies
The Times reports that new Census data shows California is losing its white, middle class Baby Boomers who can no longer afford to live in California. Leave it to a Brookings Institution policy wonk to blame it on the private sector and economy when he says, “people leaving…can’t afford to stay, given the housing prices and the cost of living.”
As if California’s confiscatory taxes, emissions fees, business regulations, sales tax, and building fees and prohibitions on development have nothing to do with creating such a dysfunctional economic climate.
During the same period, California gained 268M Hispanics. That half million swing has to cut into state tax revenue like a buzz saw through balsa. Meanwhile, California has the 4th highest tax burden of all 50 states. You have to wonder how much longer voters will allow the Democratic Legislature in Sacramento to flush the rest of California down the toilet in its effort to subsidize Socialism in One State.
From Sean Murphy.
(Murphy is working on a demographic mapping add-on for google earth that will soon be available as a free download on cofcc.org)
Murphy created this pdf file that shows the rapid decline of the white majority in the United States. Note: Only the states whose 2010 census information has been released are completed.
Today the census bureau released California’s population total for last year. Bottom line: whites continue to leave California (or opt not to move there in the first place).
white: 14,956,253 (The lowest since at least the 1970s)
The 1980, 1990 and 2000 censuses had showed white populations well over 15 million. The peak was in 1990 at over 17 million, as you can find in the pdf file.
So far only 24 states have complete data. By the end of the month, it should be finished. The Census Bureau is required by law to finish its complete count by April 1.
All states so far show substantial growth in the number of Hispanics. In several states, the Hispanic population more than doubled from 2000 to 2010. For example (in thousands)
Alabama (76 to 186)
Arkansas (87 to 186)
Maryland (228 to 470)
Mississippi (40 to 81)
North Carolina (379 to 800)
South Dakota (11 to 22)
- Population changes in South Carolina
- The US Peace Index.
- CNN: America is becoming a Hispanic Country, FAST!
- White populations are declining across US.
- US Census Bureau completely vindicates CofCC.org on Haitian Death Toll.
Exclusive to CofCC.org
by Dr. Sean Murphy
As the census numbers have been coming in, I’ve been looking a little bit at state population trends since 1970. One thing that strikes me is that when you look at the white population, several states are on a continuous losing streak.
For example – New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois combined have lost 6 million whites in the last 40 years.
I believe every state saw an increase in the white population during the 1960s. But since 1970, you cannot make that statement about any decade since.
Mostly, the states losing whites are in the rust belt, and those gaining whites are in the sun belt. That is nothing new. But I wonder to what extent these population changes result in a state being “red” or “blue” politically.
Here’s my big question though: do you think that politicians in these states losing population are pushing for more immigration
in order to prop up their state populations? In other words, as they see whites leave, rather than encouraging whites to
return or stay (which would be politically destructive), they look to immigration as a way to replace the departing white people?
The purpose of a census is to reapportion Congress. If a state did nothing and just watched its population fall as the whites leave,
they will lose Representatives in Congress, and they would lose electoral votes in every Presidential election. Thus, each state
is in competition to maintain a high population relative to others.
A zero immigration policy would, in the short term, result in those northern states losing some clout. But, maybe it would eventually
encourage them to reach out and market themselves to a whiter clientele, such as retirees.
I don’t mean to oversimplify the issue:
Not all northern states are seeing a white decline, and liberal/pro-immigration forces can easily be found in places where whites flock to such as Oregon.
BTW – more comments about the numbers:
I looked at California again, and the result is even more extreme than I first thought. There were more whites there in 1970 than today.
I quickly looked at county results in California. Santa Clara county, the home of Silicon Valley, today is only 35% white, and they lost about
15% of their white population in the last 10 years. There were only 2 counties that saw a significant increase in white population. Placer county, just north of Sacramento, was one. The other was Riverside county, a booming area far east of LA. Unfortunately this area is also a huge magnet for immigrants, so we should not think of it as any kind of white oasis within California. Being landlocked and mostly desert (think of Palm Springs), it probably is attracting people who can no longer afford to live in nicer parts of southern California.
During 2000-2010, so large was California’s white decline, that California’s 3 neighboring states saw a white population increase less than California’s white decline.
On the other hand, North Carolina’s white increase over the last 40 years has been fairly consistent at around 600,000 per decade. A few other states, such as Georgia, Utah, Tennessee (and presumably South Carolina, but no data yet) are also doing well under the circumstances.
This is from John Rosenberg at Discriminations:
You probably think I’m joking, but I’m not. A California organization in favor of racial preferences and opposed to colorblind racial equality points to Prop. 209 as causing a drop in the black population of California on “a scale not seen since the Exodus of 1858, when blacks left San Francisco for British Columbia due to the Fugitive Slave Act….”
Who’d a thunk: equality as a form of population control!
One of his commenters noted the violent ethnic cleansing that Mexican gangs are attempting in black neighborhoods, but even without that, “it’s the immigration, stupid,” that’s making blacks and whites leave California for greener pastures.
See In California, Immigration Is The Real Terminator in which Sam Francis quoted an LA Times article to the effect that “More than 1.4 million people in the U.S. migrated to California from 1995 to 2000, while 2.2 million left–the highest migration numbers in the country.” More about the impact of immigration from Linda Thom here and from Two Blowhards here.
I’d never heard of the “Exodus of 1858,” by the way, it was apparently caused largely by a gold rush on the Fraser River which led to a labor shortage in British Columbia.