For years, we were told that the West was dying because it was not reproducing. Now it turns out that this was merely data sampled too soon, and that people are reproducing, but they are doing it later in life and so they did not show up in the statistics.
We produce new estimates of the actual number of children women have over their lifetimes – cohort fertility – for 37 developed countries. Our results suggest that family size has remained high in many “low fertility” countries. For example, cohort fertility averages 1.8 for the 1975 birth cohort in the 37 countries for which average period total fertility rate was only 1.5 in 2000. Moreover, we find that the long-term decline in cohort fertility has flattened or reversed in all world regions previously characterized by low fertility. These results are robust to statistical forecast uncertainty and the impact of the late 2000s recession. An application of the new forecasts analyzing the determinants of cohort fertility finds that the key dimensions of development that have been hypothesized to be important for fertility – general socioeconomic development, per capita income, and gender equality – are all positively correlated with fertility for the 1970s cohorts. Gender equality, however, emerges as the strongest determinant: where the gap in economic, political, and educational achievement between women and men is small, cohort fertility is high, whereas where the gap is large, fertility is low.
The important factor regarding “gender equality” is simply that in Western Europe, women are protected from their jobs while they are pregnant, which allows them to afford fertility (but not as much as they could afford with the traditional nuclear family model with a working father and no women in the workforce, which would make labor supply smaller and thus more valuable, without having to spend twice on business attire, commuting and other working costs). We can see this fertility through anti-work in action in Germany:
In 2015 more babies were born in Germany than at any other point in the past 16 years. Not only have the baby numbers gone up, but the number of official marriages went up 3.4 percent from 2014 to 2015. Smells like something’s cooking…
Interestingly enough, since 1972 Germany as a whole has been losing people more than they have been gaining.
…Due to the great decrease in population in Germany, the country has offered a bundle of benefits to encourage young couples to have children.
What exactly are those benefits? Mainly, that the woman can escape work and take some time to raise the children:
As soon as a woman informs her employer she is pregnant, she is covered under maternity protection. That means, legally, she can’t get fired.
Pregnant employees have to take a leave of absence six weeks before and eight weeks after their expected birth date, while still receiving 100 percent of their salary from their employer.
Then there is this great benefit called, Elternzeit, where both parents – yes both – can take leave for up to three years and have full employment protection.
But wait. There is more money stuff, we’re not finished yet. Moreover, there is Elterngeld and Kindergeld which is additional financial support from the German government. A family can receive €100–200 or more a month, depending on how many children they have.
Other governments have caught on, and even have justified the baby boom as a means of increasing tax revenues, as is the case in Denmark, which used bizarre advertising to encourage fertility:
“The Danish welfare system is under pressure. There are still not enough babies being born, despite a little progress. And this concerns us all.”
…Nine months later reports have suggested that Denmark is set for a baby boom with 1,200 more babies due to be born this Summer compared to last year, The Local reports, citing a report in the Danish broadsheet Politiken.
…In 2014, the national fertility rate was at 1.69, a small increase on 2013 and the first time such an increase had occurred since 2010.
In Poland, Russia, and Ireland, the same pattern is occurring, even without the subtly brilliant advertising. This suggests more than a reversal by convenience, but a change in historical cycle. The data regarding UK fertility tells more of the story, but gets the cause wrong:
The graph tells the story: the high fertility rates (TFR) of the sixties plummeted with the availability of the contraceptive pill and stuck well below the level required to replace the population for 25 years.
It was a similar story in many developed European countries and the warnings inspired some governments to introduce policies encouraging their citizens to breed.
The Left wants us to blame the Pill, and surely it shares some of the blame, but what is more likely is that social changes such as causal sex, loss of tradition and collapse of social order savaged the family. To a Generation X kid, this makes sense because we saw families split on a whim and people, unmoored and anchorless, raging across the dating scene making bad decisions, all of which took time, energy and money that would otherwise have been spent on making a larger family.
Even more, it scared people off of having families. If your only option is to wait for some girl to get tired of casual sex when she gets too old to be a big hit at the clubs, then have her walk out on your family whenever it gets inconvenient, and also have a sympathetic feminist judge appoint her alimony and child support so she can introduce you to her latest casual boyfriend who is living partially off of your money, you may opt out of marriage entirely, and a good many of Generation X did exactly that. It is easier to have a perpetual girlfriend, or a series of five-year relationships, and birth control just makes it easy to stay in perpetual adolescence in this way.
All of these changes kicked in during the late 1960s, but the effect was really felt in the 1970s, when divorce and continued casual dating became the inevitable norm.
Starting in the 1990s, however, as global Leftism eliminated the Soviet version and selected the working hybrid socialist-capitalist model that, ironically, the National Socialists had pioneered, people began to instinctively pull back from the group-think of Leftist thought, which liberated them to go their own way on marriage. Generation X took another decade to start getting married, but is having children, albeit later in life:
We know that throughout the 1980s and 90s women in the twenties were having fewer babies than previously while women in their late thirties saw a moderate rise in fertility rates. In 2001 something changed.
The story of this graph is the purple line – women aged between 25 and 29. Fertility rates had been falling inexorably since 1980 and then in 2001 the trend reverses. It is almost as if women in their late twenties realised the thirty-somethings were overtaking them in the baby-stakes and decided to get breeding.
While the experts are uncertain as to the cause, it seems most likely that this represents people dodging the insane “dating” scene and finding people with whom they can have a family instead of engaging in the sex carousel. In other words, those who followed the 1960s model are getting bred out, while those who stuck to a modified traditional approach are experiencing reproductive success. These waited around until the dust had settled, got married and started having children in their thirties and beyond.
As in all problems with the West, when we remove the toxic brew of individualism/Leftism/equality from the equation and focus on what actually works, we achieve powerful results.
ITS ALL VERY SIMPLE, WE EITHER FIGHT, TAKE BACK OUT NATION AND EXTERMINATE THOSE WHO ARE WORKING TO WIPE US OUT, OR WE DIE OFF AND OUR CIVILIZATION WILL CEASE TO EXIST.
By Matt Agorist
In what can be referred to as a smoking gun, on Tuesday, Israeli News Channel 10 published a leaked diplomatic cable confirming a long-running ‘conspiracy theory’ of Israeli-Saudi coordination to provoke war.
As ZH reports, the cable was sent to all Israeli ambassadors throughout the world concerning the chaotic events that unfolded over the weekend in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, which began with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s unexpected resignation after he was summoned to Riyadh by his Saudi-backers, and led to the Saudis announcing that Lebanon had “declared war” against the kingdom.
The classified embassy cable, written in Hebrew, constitutes the first formal evidence proving that the Saudis and Israelis are deliberately coordinating to escalate the situation in the Middle East.
As ZH notes, the explosive classified Israeli cable reveals the following:
- On Sunday, just after Lebanese PM Hariri’s shocking resignation, Israel sent a cable to all of its embassies with the request that its diplomats do everything possible to ramp up diplomatic pressure against Hezbollah and Iran.
- The cable urged support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
- The cable stressed that Iran was engaged in “regional subversion”.
- Israeli diplomats were urged to appeal to the “highest officials” within their host countries to attempt to expel Hezbollah from Lebanese government and politics.
- I published on channel 10 a cable sent to Israeli diplomats asking to lobby for Saudis/Harir and against Hezbollah. The cable sent from the MFA in Jerusalem [Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs] to all Israeli embassies toes the Saudi line regarding the Hariri resignation.
- The Israeli diplomats were instructed to demarch their host governments over the domestic political situation in Lebanon – a very rare move.
- The cable said: “You need to stress that the Hariri resignation shows how dangerous Iran and Hezbollah are for Lebanon’s security.”
- “Hariri’s resignation proves wrong the argument that Hezbollah participation in the government stabilizes Lebanon,” the cable added.
- The cable instructed Israeli diplomats to support Saudi Arabia over its war with the Houthis in Yemen. The cable also stressed: “The missile launch by the Houthis towards Riyadh calls for applying more pressure on Iran & Hezbollah.”
Channel 10 News released a rough English translation of the of the secret Israeli embassy cable. That translation is below.
To the Director-General: you are requested to urgently contact the Foreign Ministry and other relevant government officials [of your host country] and emphasize that the resignation of Al-Hariri and his comments on the reasons that led him to resign illustrate once again the destructive nature of Iran and Hezbollah and their danger to the stability of Lebanon and the countries of the region.
Al-Hariri’s resignation proves that the international argument that Hezbollah’s inclusion in the government is a recipe for stability is basically wrong. This artificial unity creates paralysis and the inability of local sovereign powers to make decisions that serve their national interest. It effectively turns them into hostages under physical threat and are forced to promote the interests of a foreign power – Iran – even if this may endanger the security of their country.
The events in Lebanon and the launching of a ballistic missile by the signatories to the Riyadh agreement require increased pressure on Iran and Hezbollah on a range of issues from the production of ballistic missiles to regional subversion.”
As has been well-documented, Saudi Arabia and Israel share a common enemy that is Iranian influence. Although the IDF has “warned” of some “potential” direct action against the most notorious terrorist groups in the world which seem to be comfortably ensconced within eyesight of Israeli border posts, it has never taken significant direct action against terrorist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda and, instead, routinely target the Syrian army, Iranian-linked militias, and Hezbollah with airstrikes. This is a general reflection of the Israeli strategy of regime change in Syria, which has resulted in a well-documented history of assistance to al-Qaeda affiliated rebel groups.
This strategy is shared by Saudi Arabia, who, in September, made a “secret” visit to Israel, despite the regime not even recognizing the existence of the Jewish state.
Israel’s state-funded Kol Yisrael radio service documented this visit, noting that “An emir of the Saudi royal court visited the country secretly in recent days and discussed with senior Israeli officials the idea of advancing regional peace,” the station reported.
As ZH reports:
Thus, as things increasingly heat up in the Middle East, it appears the anti-Iran and anti-Shia alliance of convenience between the Saudis and Israelis appears to have placed Lebanon in the cross hairs of yet another looming Israeli-Hezbollah war. And the war in Yemen will also continue to escalate – perhaps now with increasingly overt Israeli political support. According to Channel 10’s commentary (translation), “In the cable, Israeli ambassadors were also asked to convey an unusual message of support for Saudi Arabia in light of the war in which it is involved in Yemen against the Iranian-backed rebels.”
All of this this comes, perhaps not coincidentally, at the very moment ISIS is on the verge of complete annihilation (partly at the hands of Hezbollah), and as both Israel and Saudi Arabia have of late increasingly declared “red lines” concerning perceived Iranian influence across the region as well as broad Hezbollah acceptance and popularity within Lebanon.
What has both Israel and the Saudis worried is the fact that the Syrian war has strengthened Hezbollah, not weakened it. And now we have smoking gun internal evidence that Israel is quietly formalizing its unusual alliance with Saudi Arabia and its power-hungry and hawkish crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.
This article originally appeared on The Free Thought Project.
When the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria began to dominate headlines in 2014, it was made out to be the most horrifying, ruthless terrorist group in existence—now any coverage the group receives tells a story of defeat, and the discovery of American weapons and equipment has gone virtually unnoticed.
ISIS was forced to withdraw from its last major stronghold in Syria on Thursday, after Syrian troops declared victory in Albu Kamal. A report from The Guardian noted that “Albu Kamal had long been crucial to the ferrying of jihadists from Syria into Iraq during the American occupation, and vice versa during the war in Syria.”
A statement from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights declared, “Forces loyal to the regime … have advanced in the Albu Kamal border city and established complete control after the withdrawal of the remaining [Isis] fighters to areas under their control in the countryside.”
This latest defeat is just one example in a series of clashes that have resulted in the Islamic State shrinking in size and power. As a result, Syrian forces have gained insight into the weapons and equipment the Islamic State fighters possessed.
When the Syrian Arab Army liberated another ISIS stronghold, Al-Mayadeen, in October, a report from Al-Masdar News noted that the terrorist group’s withdrawal “could not have been more disastrous, as they left a large amount of weapons and ammunition inside this city in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.”
“From machine guns to drones, the Syrian Army seized the large weapons cache Al-Mayadeen after liberating Al-Mayadeen from the Islamic State terrorists that once occupied the city,” The report claimed.
A second report from Al-Masdar News noted that the Al-Mayadeen operation also resulted in the seizure of “up-armored tanks, Humvees, improvised armored personnel carriers and heavy artillery pieces” from the ISIS militants.
The idea that the Islamic State—a terrorist group that appeared from virtually nowhere—has access to machine guns, Humvees and even drones should raise some serious red flags, and should lead to questions all around about who is supplying the group with such state-of-the-art supplies.
Along with the news that ISIS has been virtually destroyed in Syria, comes a report that the United States and its coalition members have sent “a large number of armored vehicles to the Deir ez-Zor Governorate in order to aid the Syrian Democratic Forces in their ongoing operation.”
“The US has supplied us with Hummer armored vehicles and heavy armament for the Deir ez-Zor operation, including missiles, infra-red guidance missiles, machine guns, mine throwers, Kalashnikov assault rifles and other ammunition,” an anonymous SDF source told Sputnik Turkiye.
As The Free Thought Project has reported, when both Russia and the U.S. claimed to be working to liberate Deir er-Zor from ISIS fighters in September, the Russian Ministry of Defense released what it claimed to be, aerial images of ISIS positions included equipment from U.S. Army Special Forces.
In a statement posted on its Facebook page, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed, “The shots clearly show the US [Special Operations Forces] units located at strongholds that had been equipped by the ISIS terrorists. Though there is no evidence of assault, struggle or any US-led coalition airstrikes to drive out the militants. Despite that the US strongholds being located in the ISIS areas, no screening patrol has been organized at them. This suggests that the US troops feel safe in terrorist controlled regions.”
As the terrorist group that once dominated mainstream media headlines for its ruthless attacks suffers a series of major defeats, there are still countless legitimate questions about why the group has been given access to U.S. weapons and equipment, why the lines seemed to be blurred between ISIS and SDF fighters, and why the United States continues to arm the Syrian Democratic forces under the radar.
THE JEWISH TALMUD:
“If a heathen (gentile) hits a Jew, the gentile must be killed.” Sanhedrin 58:b
“Jews may rob and kill Non-Jews” Baba Meza 24:a
“When a Jew murders a gentile, there will be no death penalty. What a Jew steals from a gentile he may keep.” Sanhedrin 57:a
“All gentile children are animals.” Yebamoth 98:a
“Jesus mother was a whore.” Sanhedrin 106:a
“Jesus is in hell, being boiled in “hot excrement”. Gittin 57:a
“A Jew may have sex with a child as long as the child is less than nine years old.” Sanhedrin 54:b
“When a grown-up man has intercourse with a little girl it is nothing. Kethuboth 11:b
“Christians, Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists, etc. who refuse to abandon their religious beliefs and become slaves of the Jews will be killed. Jewish leaders are attempting to persuade Gentles to adopt the ‘Noahide Laws’. These laws forbid Gentiles, Islam,
Hinduism, Buddhism and all other religions as forbidden religions.” Zechariah 14:9
“If it can be proved that someone has betrayed Israel three times, or has given the money of Israelites to the Akuma, (non-Jews) a way must be found after prudent consideration to wipe him off the face of the earth.” “Even a Christian who is found studying the law of Israel merits death.” Choschen Hamm 388:15
“Baptized Jews are to be put to death.” Sanhedrin 59:a “Christians are to be killed because they are Tyrants.” Hilkhoth Teschubhah III:8
“Jews must never cease to exterminate the Goyim; they must never leave them in peace and never submit to them.” Zohar 1,39:a
“All Jews are obliged to unite together to destroy Traitors among them.” Ibidem X:7
“The one object of all the actions and prayers of the Jews should be to destroy the Christian Religion.” Pesachim 49:b XI
“The Jews are called human beings, but the non-Jews are not humans. They are beasts.” Baba Mezia, 114:b “The souls of non-Jews come from impure spirits and are called pigs.” Jalkut Gadol 12:b
A Common Jewish Prayer for the Coming of Their Vengeful Messiah:
“Pour out thy anger upon nations that know thee not, and upon the kingdoms which do not invoke thy name; Pour out thy indignation upon them, and let thy wrathful anger take hold of them; Persecute and destroy them in anger from under the heavens of the Lord.”
At this point, the Cold War has been mostly forgotten in the West thanks to Leftist teachers who preferred to teach social justice to actual history. However, its lessons remain with us because the order from which we are currently emerging was formed at the moment the Cold War ended, and as the larger Age of Ideology fails, we can see how the two ideas were linked.
From roughly the end of WW2 through the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the West and East (Eurasia and Asia) were engaged in a “Cold War,” or conflict which refused to go fully military but still resembled a military struggle. Ultimately, the Soviets could not make their economy work, overspent on weapons, and found themselves subverted by the Western lifestyle.
We will see, perhaps, the long lines outside the first McDonald’s in Moscow, or note how Russians saved up months of income for a precious pair of blue jeans, and perhaps also recall how scarce a commodity Western pop music was in Communist countries before the fall. But the real story was one of breadlines versus abundance in American grocery stores.
As the Houston Chronicle recalls, a visit by Boris Yeltsin to a Clear Lake grocery store may have set the stage for the collapse of Soviet confidence in their own system:
According to Houston Chronicle reporter Stefanie Asin, it wasn’t all the screens, dials, and wonder at NASA that blew up his skirt, it was the unscheduled trip inside a nearby Randall’s location.
Yeltsin, then 58, “roamed the aisles of Randall’s nodding his head in amazement,” wrote Asin. He told his fellow Russians in his entourage that if their people, who often must wait in line for most goods, saw the conditions of U.S. supermarkets, “there would be a revolution.”
…About a year after the Russian leader left office, a Yeltsin biographer later wrote that on the plane ride to Yeltsin’s next destination, Miami, he was despondent. He couldn’t stop thinking about the plentiful food at the grocery store and what his countrymen had to subsist on in Russia.
In Yeltsin’s own autobiography, he wrote about the experience at Randall’s, which shattered his view of communism, according to pundits. Two years later, he left the Communist Party and began making reforms to turn the economic tide in Russia.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Left regrouped around an idea: it could hybridize consumerism with ideology, and use the fires of capitalism to drive its cultural revolution and ultimate takeover of the West. ((((((David Brooks)))))) chronicles this in his book about the new elites, BOBOS in Paradise: The New Upper Class and How They Got There.
Interestingly, as this new consumerism-communism hybrid rises, people are seeing the appeal in something much older: a touch of the Stalin era, maybe some overtones of Hitler, but mostly, a longing for the world before WW1, when there was still social order, a sense of purpose to the West, and democracy had not yet infested everything with a zombie-like obsession with furthering “equality.”
Perhaps our modern Clear Lake Randall’s is when we visit the countryside, or a society outside the West, and see that people are living with a sense of purpose and belief, and therefore, are a great deal happier than we can be. Somewhere, the good life is meaningful, and it is not found in consumerism, globalism, diversity or any other aspect of the toxic brew brought by egalitarianism.
Revolutions May Be Tantrums In Response To Famine, Not Revolts Against Injustice
We are told that revolutions occur when the leaders are bad and the people are oppressed. Traditional wisdom says that lower social classes always want revolution because they are perpetually victims of their own behavior, as expressed in the Texas maxim “poor people have poor ways.”
As it turns out, new research favors the latter more than the former by tying revolutions to weather events that caused bad crop yields and thus famine, implying that their political basis was a pretext and rationalization, not a causal reason:
Historian Francis Ludlow of Trinity College, Ireland, and his colleagues believe that ash, dust, and other particles released by volcanoes during the 200s BCE caused temperatures to cool around the globe. Cooling resulted in less water evaporation, which meant less rain for northern Africa and, therefore, less flooding of the life-giving Nile River.
…Years with low rainfall inevitably meant people wanted for more and had less to lose. Gripes with the government became full-scale rebellions, like the 20-year “Theban revolt” that started in 207 BCE and the “Egyptian revolt” against Ptolemy III between 245-238 BCE. Both came after periods of increased volcanic activity. Though many other factors were in play, there is an undeniable correlation between eruptions and rebellion against the Ptolemaic regime.
…”We frame the volcanic eruptions and the associated failures of the Nile summer floodwaters as triggers because their impact occurs suddenly without warning. There may be decades without a major volcanic eruption, but then one or more suddenly occurs,” he explained via email. “Another way of putting it is that you could consider ethic tensions and economic stress as a chronic contribution or cause, while the sudden and short-term shock from a volcanic eruption is an acute contribution of cause.”
We know that France had a bad crop yield shortly before the French Revolution and that similar conditions precipitated the revolution in Russia. If we look at effects on crops generally, and correlate to revolutions, it is likely that we will find that their political basis was a fictional narrative invented after the fact, and that these revolutions were really mass tantrums against conditions that the leaders could not have foreseen or counteracted.