Massive Wealth Inequality In America

Today, there are protests all over America that are targeting “the one percent” and all of the wealth and power that they have accumulated.  Unfortunately, many of the solutions that these protesters are advocating simply will not work and will not lead to less wealth inequality.  To understand this, you have to understand how we got to this point.  Over the past several decades, our federal government has exploded in size and our large corporations have exploded in size.  In fact, we have seen this pattern happen pretty much all over the world.  Governments and corporations all over the globe are getting much bigger.  Whenever you have very, very large concentrations of money and power like that, it is going to lead to massive wealth inequality.  The Occupy Wall Street protesters would like to frame this debate as “socialism vs. capitalism”, but the truth is that wherever you find big government you will almost always find big corporations, and wherever you find big corporations you will almost always find big government.  Sure, they spar once in a while, but the reality is that big government and big corporations work in tandem most of the time.  Sometimes big government has the upper hand and sometimes big corporations have the upper hand, but they are both collectivist institutions.  Wherever you find collectivism in the world, you will find an elite that receives most of the benefits while the rest of the population suffers.  In the United States today, our gigantic government is thriving and our gigantic corporations are thriving and the middle class is rapidly shrinking.  The solution to this is not to replace one form of collectivism with another form of collectivism.  Rather, what we need is to go back to what our founding fathers intended.  They were extremely suspicious of large concentrations of wealth and power, and they intended for us to live in a capitalist system where individuals and small businesses had the freedom to compete and thrive.

Today, Democrats tell us that we need an even bigger government and that we need to redistribute even more wealth to the poor.  But the bigger the government gets, the more poor people we seem to have.  As you will see below, the only people that seem to be thriving from big government are the bureaucrats.

Republicans tell us that we need to make life better for the big corporations.  But the reality is that the bigger our giant corporations get, the faster the middle class shrinks.  The big corporations are shipping millions of our jobs out of the country, and they are magnets for wealth and power.  If you are not aware of how overwhelmingly dominant corporations have become in our society, just read this article.

Democrats should not be defending big government, and Republicans should not be defending the abuses of the big corporations.

Whenever big government and big corporations work together there is going to be massive income inequality, and massive income inequality is not a good thing.

Yes, there are always going to be some people that do much better than others (and there is nothing wrong with that), but we should not have a system which is designed to funnel almost all of the wealth and almost all of the power to a very small minority.

In essence, this article is arguing the following….

Gigantic government = bad.

Gigantic corporations = bad.

This was the view of our founding fathers, and this is what we need to get back to.

Let’s take a look at some of the results of our current system.  Let’s start with income inequality caused by big government.

Today, the Washington D.C. region has the highest median household income in the entire nation.  According to the most recent numbers, median household income in the D.C. area is $84,523.

So what is the cause of this?

Well, it is not because Washington D.C. is a great center of industry or finance.  Rather, it is because the federal government is spending over 3 trillion dollars a year and is showering huge piles of cash on hordes of bureaucrats.

In a recent article, I noted some of the mind blowing statistics that show how bureaucrats in Washington D.C. are living the high life at our expense….

*When you total up all compensation (including health care and benefits), the average income for a federal worker in the Washington D.C. area last year was $126,369.

*In 2005, 7420 federal workers were making $150,000 or more per year.  In 2010, a whopping 82,034 federal workers were making $150,000 or more per year.  That is more than a tenfold increase in just five years.

*In 2005, the U.S. Department of Defense had just nine civilians earning $170,000 or more.  When Barack Obama took office, the U.S. Department of Defense had 214 civilians earning $170,000 or more.  In June 2010, the U.S. Department of Defense had 994 civilians earning $170,000 or more.

*Last year, federal employees “earned” approximately 447 billion dollars in total compensation.

As I have written about previously, our gigantic federal government also empowers the big corporations to continue to accumulate staggering amounts of wealth and power.  This is one reason why the big corporations contribute so much money to political campaigns.  The big corporations (and the elite that own and run them) have much more influence over the political process than we do.  They have spent decades buying politicians and getting laws passed that tilt the rules of the game radically in their favor.

This is something that our founding fathers did not want to happen.  In a 2010 article, Rick Ungar noted that there were very significant restrictions on corporations in the early days of America….

After the nation’s founding, corporations were, as they are today, the result of charters granted by the state. However, unlike today, they were limited in how long they were permitted to exist (typically 20 or 30 years), only permitted to deal in one commodity, they could not own shares in other corporations, and their property holdings were expressly limited to what they needed to accomplish their corporate business goals.

There was a lot of wisdom to that approach.  Our founding fathers knew that corporations would become giant magnets for wealth and power if they were allowed to grow unchecked.

Today, multinational corporations completely and totally dominate the global economy.  The following comes from a recent article I posted on The American Dream….

Corporations not only completely dominate the U.S. economy, they also completely dominate the global economy as well.  A newly released University of Zurich study examined more than 43,000 major multinational corporations.  The study discovered a vast web of interlocking ownerships that is controlled by a “core” of 1,318 giant corporations. But that “core” itself is controlled by a “super-entity” of 147 monolithic corporations that are very, very tightly knit.  As a recent article in NewScientist noted, these 147 corporations control approximately 40 percent of all the wealth in the entire network

These giant corporations are so dominant that it is nearly impossible to compete with them.  The number of small businesses in America is shrinking fast.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 16.6 million Americans were self-employed back in December 2006.  Today, that number has shrunk to 14.5 million.

This is exactly what we would expect to see under “corporatism“, but under true capitalism we would expect to see the exact opposite.

As the federal government and the big corporations continue to grow, the middle class is being wiped out.  If you doubt that the middle class is shrinking, just read this article.

Yes, there is a limited role for the federal government to play and there is a limited role for corporations to play.  But right now things are radically, radically out of balance.

This is creating a tremendous amount of income inequality in the United States.  The middle class is being systematically destroyed, and the growth of the gap between the one percent and the rest of us just continues to accelerate.

This was certainly illustrated by numbers that were recently released by the Congressional Budget Office.  The very wealthy have done extremely well over the last 30 years.  For the rest of us, things have not been so great.  The following figures come from a recent blog post by the director of the Congressional Budget Office….

CBO finds that between 1979 and 2007:

  • For the 1 percent of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax household income grew by 275 percent (see figure below).
  • For others in the 20 percent of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax household income grew by 65 percent.
  • For the 60 percent of the population in the middle of the income scale, the growth in average real after-tax household income was just under 40 percent.
  • For the 20 percent of the population with the lowest income, the growth in average real after-tax household income was about 18 percent.

Meanwhile, as a recent USA Today article noted, the middle class continues to falter in the majority of the communities around the United States….

A USA TODAY analysis of Census data found the Reno area was among 150 nationwide where the share of income going to the middle class — generally made up of households that make $20,700 to $99,900 a year — shrank from 2006 to 2010. Metro areas where the middle class’ share of income dropped outnumbered those where it grew by more than 2-to-1.

So just how well is the top one percent doing compared to the rest of us?

The following statistics should be a wake up call for all of us….

*According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top one percent is the only group that saw its share of our national income increase between 1979 and 2007.

*According to a joint House and Senate report entitled “Income Inequality and the Great Recession“, the top one percent of all income earners in the United States brought in a total of 10.0 percent of all income income in 1980, but by the time 2008 had rolled around that figure had skyrocketed to 21.0 percent.

*Between 1979 and and 2007, the average household income of the top one percent of all Americans soared from $346,600 to $1.3 million.

*In the United States today, the wealthiest one percent of all Americans have a greater net worth than the bottom 90 percent combined.

*As the “one percent” thrives, the share of the pie being enjoyed by the middle class is shrinking.  According to Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, about 53 percent of all income went to the middle class back in the 1970s, but today only about 46 percent of all income does.

*According to Harvard Magazine, 66% of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top one percent of all Americans.

*The wealthiest one percent of all Americans now own more than a third of all the wealth in the United States while the poorest 50 percent of all Americans collectively own just 2.5% of all the wealth in the United States.

*The wealthiest one percent of all Americans own over 50% of all the stocks and bonds.

*The top 0.01% of Americans make an average of $27,342,212.  The bottom 90% make an average of $31,244.

*This is all happening at a time when the United States as a whole is slipping.  Ten years ago, the United States was ranked number one in average wealth per adult.  In 2010, the United States fell to seventh.

*Income inequality is not just growing in the United States.  Today, the wealthiest one percent of the earth’s population controls 39% of the wealth.

There is certainly nothing wrong with being wealthy.  If you and your family work really hard and provide great value to the community around you then you should greatly benefit.

But a system that is designed to systematically drain wealth from the general population and transfer it into the hands of an ultra-wealthy elite is not what our founding fathers ever hand in mind.  At the time of our founding, England was dominated by big government (the monarchy) and by big business (the East India Company, for example).  Our founders warned us over and over about the potential abuses that can happen when very large concentrations of wealth and power are allowed to dominate a society.

Unfortunately, the Occupy Wall Street movement has it all wrong.  They recognize the overwhelming wealth and power accumulated by the one percent, but most of them are advocating even more collectivism as the answer.

Some of them even say that they want to “end capitalism” altogether.  Michael Moore says that he is not part of the one percent and that he wants to “end capitalism”, even though he has made millions upon millions of dollars from his various projects.

But socialism and communism never bring equality.  Like other forms of collectivism, socialism and communism almost always bring more tyranny and they almost always funnel most of the financial rewards to a very small elite.

Others simply wish to see the U.S. government transfer more wealth from the hands of the rich to the hands of the poor.

Helping the poor is certainly a noble goal, and handouts can certainly ease suffering at least temporarily.  But handouts are never a permanent solution and they can cause large numbers of people to end up becoming completely and totally dependent on the government.

Back in 1980, government transfer payments accounted for just 11.7% of all income.  Today, government transfer payments account for 18.4% of all income.

So has the plight of the poor gotten better?

No, we now have more than 45 million Americans on food stamps, last year we had the largest increase in the number of Americans living in poverty in U.S. history and the middle class continues to shrink rapidly.

The truth is that what poor and middle class Americans really need are opportunities.  Handouts will keep people alive, but they will not give people hope and a future.

What Americans really need is an environment where they can find jobs or start small businesses.  Unfortunately, the environment for small businesses in this country is incredibly toxic and millions of our good jobs have been shipped overseas.  The big corporations have discovered that they can make even bigger profits by sending jobs to countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages.  To say that we need big corporations because they are the ones that “create jobs” is simply not true anymore.

So now we have tens of millions of Americans that we have to take care of every single month.  There is nothing wrong with helping them survive, but giving them even more handouts is not going to permanently solve anything.

We need to have a population that is empowered to work hard, produce wealth and create a bright future for their families.

Instead, what we have is a system that greatly rewards the top one percent and that is pushing all of the rest of us toward poverty.

Gigantic government plus gigantic corporations is always going to equal massive wealth inequality.

The bigger we allow government to grow and the bigger we allow corporations to grow, the worse it is going to get.

So is any of this going to change any time soon?

Well, considering the fact that the vast majority of our politicians are in the pockets of the big corporations, I would not be getting your hopes up.

Chicano race organizations openly call for race war within five years

Pheonix based Chicano race hustlers openly call for race war within five years.

Chicano race organizations Calls for Race war?

Miguel Perez says he is the current president of Chicanos Unidos Arizona and an active member of La Raza. He says he also served as the vice president of MECHA in Fullerton California.

La Raza, or NCLA, is a militant Latino group that Obama is funding with American tax dollars. MECHA is a nationwide Latino student organization. MECHA explicitly calls for the creation of Atzlan, a new Chicano/Latino nation, in what is now the Southwest United States.

Perez is using Examiner.com to call for Latinos in the Southwest to arm themselves for race war. Perez tells his readers “Latino groups believe they have enough people in states such as California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas to successfully wage a war on the United States.  Who’s side will you be on?”

Perez is hyping a call to arms by a fellow Chicano militant…

Phoenix-based Nuestros Reconquistos claims that there will be a war very similar to the Civil War fought in the next five years. “La Raza and MEChA have already talked to Latinos and Phoenix and explained that Latinos need to arm themselves for war,” says Nuestros Reconquistos President Manuel Longoria.

Cecilia Maldonado of Chicanos Unidos Arizona isn’t hoping for any sort of war, but believes it may be unavoidable. “For generations, our people have prepared us to take back the lands of the Southwest that were stolen from our Mexican ancestors. Because of the bad economy and many racist laws, Latinos will be forced to fight sooner than later,” says Mrs. Maldonado.

Perez is listed as the “civil rights” writer for the Phoenix area on examiner.com. He recently praised Obama for issuing a unilateral amnesty for illegal aliens by ordering law enforcement to cease deportations.
Update: 9/1/11

The Race

Miguel Perez, current president of Chicanos Unidos Arizona and an active member of La Raza, also served as the vice president of the Latino civil rights organization MECHA in Fullerton California. He is the son of two Mexican immigrants. Perez plans to become a lawyer in order to protect the rights of Latinos. You can reach Perez at mperezlaraza1985@gmail.com.

Phoenix-based Nuestros Reconquistos claims that there will be a war very similar to the Civil War fought in the next five years. “La Raza and MEChA have already talked to Latinos and Phoenix and explained that Latinos need to arm themselves for war,” says Nuestros Reconquistos President Manuel Longoria.

Latino group claims Aztlán war in next five years

More from Miguel here.

Link courtesy Rebellion Blog

Locust: and the comments are even better!

6 comments:

Anonymous said…
Bring it you racist MFers! Your rhetoric is treasonous and all of you should be charged, tried, convicted and hung.

Pickdog
III

LFMayor said…
I find your terms acceptable, Perez. By all means, please let us know if you want to get started ahead of schedule. And be careful with those siestas… remember San Jacinto? We’ll bring tar again for all you great “leaders”.

xoxo
The Mayor

Anonymous said…
Ha Ha Ha! Seriously? To the halls of Montezuma again!
Mexico only exist because we allow it too.If we stopped buying their crap the entire Mexican economy would collapse.We just let you go so long out of kindness I suppose.
Really a latino insurgency? I’d give it a week.

Anonymous said…
Don’t kid yourselves, this guy and MANY MANY of his fellow travelers are quite serious…dead serious in fact. They already have the numbers in many communities and will be able to easily overrun most adjacent communities for the simple fact that most people think it can’t or won’t happen. Come on, think about it, the majority of Americans believe that they are just here to bus our tables and cut our grass…they’re just good hard working decent people who only want a better life for themselves and their families…and most importantly, they’re no threat. That is what ALL media outlets and political/community leaders have been telling the people for years now.

Maybe in some states something like this might only last a week, but in states such as CA, AZ, & N.M. it would be devastating and they could easily gain control of large portions of the state. Look at the devastation that a relatively small number of drug gang members have wrought on whole cities just south of the border…and they’re killing their own people there! These guys basically hate white people, do you think for even a moment that they would have a problem with killing entire neighborhoods just to get their point across?

Go ahead and laugh this guy off and treat what he is saying as a joke, but do so at your own peril. I live in AZ and seriously fear what I believe is coming.

The Quiet Man

Mike said…
If he could rectify the recto-cranial inversion he’s suffering from he’d realize what a f@#$%^& idiot he is. Come get some peckerhead.

Curtis said…
Well, I believe that he and his followers are serious. And I take it serious. But the numbers who think like him, while large enough to do some damage, especially in places like Los Angeles, their numbers are not large enough to take whole States or even half. I live in a predominately Hispanic neighborhood. Except for the house full of Hispanic Trannies (I shit you not) down the street, I don’t have a single problem with any of them. I don’t know if they are all legal, but they all do work except for my closet neighbor who got laid off his truck driving job. That’s not to say we don’t have a Hispanic gang problem and a few La Raza’s or a few pockets of Hispanic idiots, but for the most part, the Hispanic peoples up here where I live are quite folks.

Fall of the American Empire

The American Empire is falling off a cliff.

Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look at gold’s standing ovation for the Obama-Boehner debt ceiling theater. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Stefan Molyneux about the Fed audit and the debt ceiling.
KR on FB: http://www.facebook.com/KeiserReport

 

WHY AND HOW AMERICA MUST COLLAPSE

by Kirk Brothers

CLICK HERE to return to Index

INTRODUCTION

     To anyone with a penchant for history, it is obvious that
our once-great nation is dying--and the end will not be peaceful.
The United States, like an aging star, must first collapse, and
then explode, in a final burst of energy that will be awesome to
behold.
     Alternatively, to pursue our astronomical metaphor for one
more sentence, the United States might by that dreadful time have
become so massive from the dead weight of political corruption
that it will end as a black hole, from which nothing can escape.
     This grim prophetic view of our destiny will, of course, be
laughed off by those who habitually refuse to see the truth even  
when it walks up and spits in their faces--but happily, I do not
expect to live long enough to see the end, which is inevitable.
     The signs of our bleak future are to be seen everywhere, and
it is our national tragedy that neither our alleged leaders nor
the majority of the people are intelligent enough to recognize
them.  For what it is worth, this article will point out the
facts, if only for the benefit of future generations who must
pick up the pieces of rubble and try to decide what to do with
our junk.  It is my hope--albeit a forlorn one--that my articles
may survive long enough to serve as documentary evidence of
exactly who and what were to blame.

THE ROOT CAUSES

     Let's begin with Malthus (1766-1834)--the Catholic Church
disapproves of Malthus, which is reason enough to hold him in
high esteem.  And by way of introduction, let's recall for a
moment the innumerable times you've heard some older person
reminisce about "the good old days"--before you were born.
     Well, the good old days were pretty rotten in some ways, but
on balance they were very good, indeed--for one reason.
     There weren't so damn many people overcrowding this planet!
     Malthus wrote in his classic economic work, AN ESSAY ON THE
PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION, that population increases much faster
than the resources necessary to support them--so that as popula-
tion goes up, the quality of life goes down.  Let me give you a
specific illustration from my own life span.
     I grew up in a little town in Massachusetts at a time when
the country's population stood, fairly constant, at around 120
million people (the latest figure available estimates our numbers
now at some 266 million).  My home town numbered about three
thousand, and there were a number of farms quite close to the
center--which was marked by the Unitarian Church and a row of
about a dozen small stores.
     Less than two blocks from our home on the main street stood
a 60 acre dairy farm where we could buy raw milk.  A mile further
down the main street, a shallow river trickled through what we
called a swamp, but would nowadays be termed a wetland (it sounds
better).  We could catch fish there in the summer, and skate on
its ice in the winter.  During summer vacations, school buses
took us to Red Cross swimming lessons in Walden Pond--where
Thoreau's cabin site was still marked--or we could drive to
Revere Beach to swim in Boston Harbor.  For a day of fun, there
were steamships from Boston to Nantasket Beach for swimming or
amusement rides.
     There were only 120 million people in the entire country
then.
     Well, the old town has changed.  The dairy farm was sold to
make room for a large shopping mall.  The wetlands were drained,
and the river reduced to an underground pipeline, to make room
for a second mall.  Walden Pond has long been so polluted with
human sewage that it is closed to swimming--the same is true of
Boston Harbor beaches.
     The town's population is at least 15,000 nowadays, or about
five times what it was in "the good old days".  The point is that
the land area remains the same size, but five times as many
people try to live in the space we knew and loved as youngsters. 
And now here's an example of what Malthus was talking about, in a
simple everyday example.
     Suppose you're having a family dinner and you've baked a pie
for dessert.  If there are six in the family, everybody gets a
good slice.  If a seventh person shows up unexpectedly, it's
possible to do some tricky cutting and offer each diner a seventh
instead of a sixth--a little skimpy, but still adequate.
     But suppose there are two extra people.  In that case Mom
says she isn't hungry or is on a diet or some such alibi, and
cuts seven slices, going without dessert herself.  We all had
Moms who made such small sacrifices.
     Okay, now suppose you have thirty people for dinner--five
times as many as you have food for.  Figure it out for yourself.

POPULATION PROBLEMS IN A NUTSHELL

     There are one billion people too many on this planet.
     The best figures available tend to show that two billion is
the maximum number the Earth can sustain if the quality of life
is to be acceptable.  Yet in South America (Latins are predomi-
nately Catholic and therefore opposed to birth control, abortion,
or common sense like Malthus' observations) the population grows
so rapidly that the vast tropical rain forest is being cut down
at an alarming rate.  Loss of the Amazon rain forest will alter
the whole world's climate and ecosystems in a way that cannot be
projected, much less prevented.  The changes will be catastrophic
--but try telling that to people who have too many children to
feed and house, and are stupid enough to argue that "nobody needs
a jungle".
     In brief, the human race is fornicating itself into extinc-
tion, and nothing can possibly improve significantly until one
person out of every three now alive dies without being replaced
at the world food table.  But just try telling that to the Pope.

WHAT ELSE COULD BE WRONG?

     Very simple.  It is an absolute and unquestionable fact that
fully one half of the world's population is below average in
intelligence.  The figure is the same for each and every country,
without exception.
     Okay, so I'll prove it--and here's the proof.  What is the
definition of the word "average"?
     It's a mathematical or statistical concept which determines
the midpoint in any population--and if you calculate a midpoint,
one half must fall above and one half below the average--obvious.
     Okay, what does that mean in the world of politics?
     It means that elections are decided by the stupid.
     It means that laws are made and enforced by and for the
stupid.
     It means that intelligence counts for nothing, because the
majority of those voting don't understand what the intelligent
are talking about.  And by intelligent, I mean those smart enough
for college work--with IQs of 120 or higher.
     Let me give you an example.  In the first three articles in
this series, I proved that Social Security (and therefore that
virtually every major government program) is blatantly unconsti-
tutional--that our Federal Courts are so corrupted by party
politics that Judges refuse to address that question--and, worst
of all, that we have had no valid Constitution for at least 150
years.
     Suppose you want me to prove it here and now, in a half-
dozen well-chosen sentences of less than ten words each.  I can't
--simply because it took about 30 pages, single spaced, to prove
it there, and stupid people don't want to read 30 pages of
anything except sex novels.  They want the news in headlines with
the important events summarized in 10-second sound bites, so as
to have lots of time for the latest scores and sports action.
     Why?  Because they're stupid.
     Who caters to the stupid?
     Well, our politicians--the mass media--the academic airheads
who dictated the Conventional Unwisdom that is leading our
country to economic collapse--and our government-controlled
schools--to start the list.
     In any rational society, laws would be made exclusively by
the wise, leaders would be only the wisest men and women in the
nation, there would be a mere handful of laws, based upon
universal principles easy for all to understand, applied by
Judges who are both wise and unprejudiced--and only those with
IQs of at least 110 would have the right to vote.  
     If these standards be reasonable, by which one of them does
ours qualify as a rational society?

FALLACIES OF THE STUPID

     The list is virtually endless, but let's look at just a few
of the most important ones, because they impinge on our lives in
the most nefarious ways each and every day.
     It should be common knowledge that most Americans (or other
people worldwide) will choose a pleasant lie over an unpleasant
truth.  By making that choice, they believe they have done the
right thing, and they don't want any intelligent person to point
out their mistakes.
     They won't trouble their brains to read this article, but
I'll point out some of them, anyway.  I list them in no particu-
lar order of importance--I believe they're all valid observa-
tions.

NOBODY WANTS EQUALITY

     We were all taught to respect the idea that we are all
equal, at least under law.  But nobody would be satisfied with
that idea, even if it were true.
     Why?
     Because equality means you're exactly the same as your worst
enemy.  He has exactly the same rights you have, and you have no
more political power than he does.
     Nobody wants to be equal to his worst enemy.  And so Bible-
belt fanatics persist in trying to shove Christianity into public
schools by hook or by crook--heterosexual fanatics persist in
passing laws to punish homosexuals--gun control fanatics persist
in destroying the priceless right of the Second Amendment--
ignoramuses who view "drugs" as evil persist in passing more and
more stupid laws to prevent even moderate use of substances which
clearly have great medicinal value--and so on.
     Fanatics want to be "more equal" than the people they hate,
for one reason or another.  But a Libertarian (of which I am
proud to be one) believes that government must adopt the princi-
ple of laissez faire--letting people DO WHAT THEY WANT, as long
as they do no injury to OTHERS (what injury they might do to
themselves is their own fault, and society is NOT to blame!).
     Bad habits might be deplored, but to outlaw them is to put
Mrs. Grundy in the driver's seat, where she is absolutely out of
place.  Mrs. Grundy wants to PROHIBIT things which many people
like, simply because she feels superior for not liking the same
things.  She is stupid, and a bigot to boot.

NOBODY IS SATISFIED, EVER

     I hold it to be self-evident that nobody is happy with what
he already has (except for those rare individuals who have seen
the fallacy in pursuing what erroneously passes for wealth).
     All too often a person says that if he could only make so
much money he'd be satisfied.  He goes on strike and gets the
money he demanded.  And then it's not enough.  He strikes again
to get more.
     Or a young man says that if he could get a new Ford he'd be
happy.  He gets a new Ford.  And then he wants a Mercury instead.
Or a newlywed couple say they'll be happy in a nice apartment. 
But don't worry--in a year they'll want a house.  Perhaps because
all their friends have houses, and they have to keep up with
them.
     The love of money might not be the root of all evil, but
it's at least the seed.  The greed shown by many Americans
indulging themselves in conspicuous overconsumption has unfortu-
nately caused the peoples of underdeveloped nations to want the
same things--increasing demand for more and more consumer goods
at prices which are excessive to begin with, and are inflated
even more by the increased demand.
     In "the good old days", a loaf of bread cost about ten cents
if a supermarket brand, or fifteen cents if a "name" brand.  Now
a loaf of bread costs more than a dollar at a bakery thrift shop. 
Twenty cents used to buy a quart of milk, or a can of soup, or a
gallon of gas.  A new family car, of sturdy steel and easy to fix
oneself, used to cost well under a thousand dollars.
     In what way are today's prices an indication of improvement
in our economic well-being, according to the Conventional
Mistakes of our lunatic economists?  Only that people have more
dollars to spend.  But the dollar is worth less, so nobody bene-
fits, except those who live on over-extended credit--of which our
government is the prime example.  And the more world population
increases, the worse everything gets.
     Malthus understated his case.

THE FALLACIES OF ECONOMICS

     Most Americans appear to be suckers for anyone with a degree
in anything.  A prime example of this is their gullibility for
anything labeled "economic" in any terminology.  The government
issues monthly fiction called things like "cost of living index"
or "consumer price index", etc., but they all boil down to hot
air and wishful thinking.  I submit as fact, which few will
accept, that the so-called science of economics is 90% garbage
which should be tossed in the garbage can.  Here's why.
     There are basically two types of science: descriptive and
experimental.  Some sciences are both.  A botanist like Luther
Burbank, for example, first learns to classify and identify
plants (descriptive), and then learns by experiment to develop
new and/or improved varieties by selective reproduction
techniques.
     But some sciences do not lend themselves to experimentation. 
Geology is one.  A geologist describes earthquakes but does not
try to control or cause one--he's lucky to be able to predict
aftershocks from a major tremor.  Similarly, a meteorologist
describes hurricanes and tornadoes but cannot control them--
prediction is the best he can hope for.
     Economics is also a descriptive science--which applies
useful terms to human behavior in acts of getting and spending
money--and may lead to meaningful predictions.  But it is of
value only if it is studied in a context of conservative common
sense (which is not common), or a practical application like
business administration.
     Unfortunately for all of us, economists for more than 60
years have fooled Americans into believing that theirs is an
experimental science, and that the economy can be controlled.
That delusion has been so deeply ingrained in Americans' mind-set
for 60 years that eradicating the error is a virtually impossible
task.  Nevertheless I'll give it a try.

THE ECONOMY CANNOT BE CONTROLLED

     What is "the economy"?  It's the sum total of each and every
consensual contract between each and every person, in the course
of doing business of any kind--from buying a hamburger at
McDonald's to selling a thousand shares of blue chip stocks on
Wall Street.  There are literally millions of such transactions
each and every day, and it is absolutely impossible to even list
them, much less make decisions about their effect on other
transactions.  The fact is that the staggering number of economic
transactions in a single day would surpass the capacity of the
largest computer to extract and manipulate data.
     So economists do what they think is almost as good.  They
use statistics and propaganda.
     We used to joke that there are three grades of lies: little
white lies, big black lies, and statistics--the joke being that
statistics can be used to prove anything the statistician wants
to prove.  He simply "adjusts" his "data" and sets up the numbers
to give him his desired results.
     Does this sound familiar?  The government issues some
damfool economic summary, predicting that next quarter will be
much better or worse than this one.  The prediction turns out to
be wrong.  So the government "revises" its index to "reflect"
more "accurately".  And millions of Americans (the stupid ones)
smile in satisfaction at the wisdom of our leaders.
     There would be another problem if economics were a truly
experimental science: the only way one could control the economy
would be to regulate EVERYTHING (and don't think they're not
trying it already)!  That would mean tinkering in everybody's
business, laying down thousands of laws and rules governing how
one runs his company--and punishing people who either don't know
all the rules, or have the attitude that our stinking, lousy,
meddling government should get the hell off our backs and LEAVE
US ALONE!
     Economists are the greatest (worst) meddlers in the world,
and the tragedy is they meddle in order to "prove" a theory that
by the rules of logic cannot be proved.  Economists appear to
believe that a free market is not to be trusted.  Libertarians
hold that ONLY a free market is to be trusted--not self-serving,
empire-building bureaucrats on a power trip.  Laissez faire
again.

WHAT ECONOMISTS NEVER TELL YOU

     Every true science has laws which can be demonstrated time
and again by students anywhere at any time.  For example, in
physics a student performs simple experiments (in the beginning)
to prove the laws of magnetism or gravity.  Economics has no
"hands on" test for anything it preaches, but presumes its laws
to be carved in stone by the finger of God.  And many courses in
economics omit facts which should be common knowledge to anyone
interested in his personal economic security.  Here's one such
example.
     Let's assume you had a million dollars to spend last year,
so you invested it in an original Picasso oil.  Art experts
appraised the work as worth more than two million--but you got a
bargain.
     Your original Picasso is hanging on your dining-room wall so
you can admire it, and you are so happy with it you aren't at all
interested in selling it.  It's given you a million dollars'
worth of pleasure so far, perhaps.
     Question: how much is your Picasso worth now?
     Answer: not a dime.
     Why?  Because you don't want to sell it.
     The value of anything is determined only when it is traded,
and its value is exactly what the seller will take and the buyer
will pay.  As a matter of fact, art values are totally fictitious
--because collectors are notorious for putting an art work such
as a Picasso on the auction block every few years, bidding the
price up above others at the sale, and buying it back.  There's a
commission on the sale price, but that's all it costs them.  In
return, it is now a matter of record that the painting increased
in value by so many thousands of dollars between auctions.  That
proves it's a good investment, right?
     Well, is it?  Here's a well-known anecdote reputed to be a
true-life story.  After the Communist revolution in Russia, many
of the old wealthy families (who could not leave the Soviet Union
and take their wealth with them) were down on their uppers, and
in a bad way for basic things like food.
     So one day a man of prior wealth decided to sacrifice part
of it, by bartering his beautiful Faberge egg--an artifact for
which the Age of the Tsars was noted.  It was hand-painted,
decorated with precious gems, and had cost a fortune in the old
days.  The man covered his priceless egg in a protective cloth
and carefully took it by horse and buggy to a farm on the
outskirts of Moscow where he hoped to exchange it for food.
     When he told the farmer what he wanted and what he offered,
the farmer sneered and offered a sack of potatoes.  The former
nobleman was shocked at the offer--until the farmer beckoned his
customer to the door of an adjoining room.
     The table, the shelves, and the floor of the next room were
littered with a vast collection of Faberge china--all beautiful,
and all useless to the farmer, who could not sell them any more
than the nobleman could.  The nobleman took the sack of potatoes.
     And you think you have security because you've invested in
comic books--having paid, perhaps, a hundred dollars for a copy
of the first Batman story in "new" condition?  Well, the person
who paid ten cents for it, and kept it carefully for future
collectors, made a killing on his investment--but as a general
rule most art collectors are loaded with expensive, yet worth-
less, items they can never recoup their investment on.
     One man I met has a collection of miniature elephants in
many sizes, materials, and poses.  He honestly believes them to
be worth what he paid for them, plus a profit.  But if a Faberge
egg could be worth a sack of potatoes, how much could an elephant
statue demand?  Think about it.
     There is an excellent paperback book called "Economics in
One Lesson" by Henry Hazlitt, a journalist like myself, whose
style and illustrative examples are a pleasure to read.  I will
not steal his thunder, but I should like to give him credit for
two points which I must re-argue in my own discussion.
     To paraphrase Hazlitt, economists are prone to "prove" their
theories by showing you only one side of a two-faced coin--the
side favorable to their theory, and the only one they want you to
think about.  In that way they are like magicians who show the
audience an impressive box of sturdy construction, which they
open to show full of money--but fail to show that the box has no
bottom, and the money is on a spring inside a special table the
box is set upon.
     In arguments over various hare-brained proposals, economists
like to show you the "heads" of a coin--namely, WHO GETS WHAT--
and argue, using every propaganda trick in the book, to show how
"good" their proposal is.  But they never show you the "tails"
side, which is WHO LOSES.
     The true science of mathematics is based upon the law that
you cannot get something for nothing--but the pseudo-science
economics pretends you can.  During the hard times of the 1930's,
truth-telling mathematics offered only unpleasant reality, but
New Deal economics promised pie in the sky--something for
nothing--a pleasant lie.  So stupid people chose the pleasant
lie, and voted for Franklin Delano Rooselvelt four times.  And
here we are now, seeing what was on the other side of the New
Deal coin.
     Economists occasionally "prove" their wisdom by the propa-
ganda fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc (meaning "after that,
therefore because of that").  For example, say that three months
ago the "Fed" lowered interest rates, and the economy improved.
"Hooray!" they say, "lowering the interest rates caused the
improvement".
     First, and in passing, let's stop to think if we really give
a damn about the Fed's raising or lowering of the interest rate. 
What the hell has it ever meant to you?  Only what you heard
somebody say on the news, I'll bet.  When the news tells you
everything is great, do you really believe it?  If so, what's
your IQ?
     But let's get back to the fallacy of "after that, therefore
because of that".  The fallacy is to leave out all other events
and facts that might indicate the true cause.  An example more
easily seen as a fallacy is that of a superstitious farmer who
plants corn after the new moon and before the full moon.  If he
gets a good crop, he says it's because he planted his seed after
the new moon and before the full moon (ignoring weather, fertili-
zing, etc.).  
     The economic fallacy of concern to us is the failure of our
government to admit the obvious fact that if something is "free"
to some people, it's being paid for by others.  Or, as a simple
variation, it will be paid for in the future by the next genera-
tions.  Social Security, as shown in the first article in this
series, was "sold" by Franklin Delano Roosevelt by golden rheto-
ric dwelling on its short-term "benefits".  Roosevelt himself
ignored the real (long run) cost of those "benefits", and the
final price will be the total economic collapse of the United
States in a few decades or less.

OTHER OMISSIONS IN ECONOMICS

     Economics mentions barter more or less in passing, and
quickly dismisses it as irrelevant--a mere holdover from primi-
tive times in economic history.  The fact is that barter is still
the basis for every transaction, but most people don't bother to
perform the rituals of asking price, offered price, and negotia-
tion--in fact, they've never tried "dickering" over the price, or
think it's not dignified.  Barter demands aggressiveness which we
regard as antisocial, but is absolutely necessary if and when
money is worthless.
     When is that?  Well, in Australia today there are some
tribes in the Outback who still don't use money.  They exchange
goods or services for goods or services, by mutual agreement. 
People from "civilization" who go into the Outback and may need
to obtain food while there are well advised to have trading
goods, like the Dutch who bought Manhattan Island for 24 dollars'
worth of jewelry.

BUTTER AND GUNS

     One of the classic illustrations used in economics is the
real (practical) problem of striking a bargain between parties in
a barter system--the usual example being that of exchanging
butter for guns.  In a barter economy, a gunsmith who needs
butter for his kitchen, and a dairy farmer who needs a shotgun to
shoot crows, must somehow meet face to face to agree on how much
butter is a fair trade for one gun.  Obviously, if a gunsmith
doesn't need butter or a farmer doesn't need a gun, they can't do
business.
     In the dim past, when communities were isolated and trading
was done by traveling merchants, the problems of doing business
were greatly eased by the mercantile invention of money.  It was
the merchant, acting as a go-between, who offered the gunsmith or
the farmer so much symbolic paper or coinage for each man's
goods, and sold each customer what he needed in a monetary
exchange.  The barter was limited to how much money was agreeable
in each separate transaction, not how many pounds of butter for a
gun.
     Money is truly one of the great human inventions, but it was
not the work of a political bureaucracy!  It was only later that
politicians saw the enormous potential in controlling the money
used, and governmental control of money has been universal ever
since.
     That control is the power, and the weakness, of economics--
for if a government collapses, the money in circulation becomes
trash.  It happened in the South after the Civil War, with the
demise of the Confederacy and therefore Confederate money.  It
happened in Germany after World War I, when a wheelbarrow-full of
paper money might be needed for a loaf of bread.
     As part of economists' meddling in matters they do not
understand--like the Sorcerer's Apprentice who conjured a broom
to carry water--they seek to control both the supply of money and
the value of money.  Basically, they want inflation.  Inflation
is good for debtors (which is most of the people), and bad for
creditors (who are held to deserve a little loss, by the morality
of Robin Hood).  Deflation, which nobody really wants to see,
would be a bonanza for creditors and the final straw for debtors
--they would have to pay back more real value than what they
borrowed, rather than less.
     In any rational society, money would be absolutely rock hard
and absolutely beyond the power of any political scheme to change
it a hair.  If one were to borrow ten dollars now, he would have
to pay back the full value of ten dollars, plus agreed interest
for the time borrowed.  If you think that's unfair because you
borrow money, how would you feel if you were the lender?
     There is one, and only one, way I can see that could create
such a rock-hard, non-manipulable monetary system--and it has
been suggested by a number of theoreticians with common sense,
who were therefore called crackpots.  That is, to establish a
money system in which the minimum unit of coinage (one cent, for
example) would be deemed equal to exactly one minute of time
spent at minimal labor.
     Obviously, there can never be one second more or one second
less than sixty minutes in an hour.  Therefore in this system,
the minimum wage would be sixty cents per hour, and all higher
units of money and all contracts would be negotiated in terms of
money at that rate of exchange.  All market prices would be nego-
tiated using this system of hard money as its basis, so that a
person earning the minimum wage could afford a modest lifestyle
(my first job paid me fifteen cents an hour).
     Of course, some people would want to borrow an hour's worth
of work time, and pay it back with fifteen minutes--that's
inflation.  But the short answer to all demands of that nature
must be NO.

WALL STREET

     Stock markets are the biggest gambling casinos in the world.
That's not their public-relations image, but it's the truth. 
Wall Streeters like to pretend they're doing a profound and
patriotic service in helping little Americans buy a piece of the
nation in stocks and bonds.  I submit that such claims are an
earthenware container of organic fertilizer.
     Wall Street is a complex mechanism for manipulating wealth--
in the form of symbolic paper--and its attraction for high
financiers is the lure of a quick killing by buying low and
selling high.  If financiers guess wrong they may jump out
windows--or take a flight out of jurisdiction with embezzled
funds to evade criminal prosecution.  The little Americans who
lose their shirts when the market crashes never know what hit
them.  It happened in 1929, and is due to happen again--despite
the best efforts of economic "experts" to keep it from happening
by more and more controls.
     The fact is that Wall Street is a bubble perilously close to
bursting.  Our economists can't control Wall Street, so how the
hell can they pretend to control anything else?  I'll tell you
how--by bluff and bluster.
     We all know that Social Security will be bankrupt in about
thirty years, and Medicare in about ten, and that our economists
created the mess by meddling in the free market system instead of
letting banking and insurance institutions offer retirement
pensions by consensual contracts.  Now our "experts" admit that
Social Security is in trouble, and their God-given superiority
has advised them exactly how to prop it up.
     Invest in Wall Street--the world's biggest gambling casino!
     And stupid Americans continue to trust them!  How long can
their brains hibernate before they wake up and smell the coffee?

SUMMARIZING FOR THIS TIME

     The Medicare Program will go bankrupt in perhaps ten years,
and Social Security will go down the tubes perhaps twenty years
later--if we're lucky.  These blatant swindles are the legacy of
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and for proof of this statement please
read my previous articles in this series.
     The collapse of our country will be the result of numerous 
interlocking factors, which I have here tried to separate for
individual consideration by thoughtful readers.  The factors are:
     1) The overpopulation of the planet, by about 50% of what it
     should be.
     2) The domination of politics by a two-thirds majority of
     people below IQ 120, who are the least qualified to make
     intelligent political decisions.
     3) The facts (few) and fallacies (many) in the so-called
     science of economics which have contributed to, and continue
     to maintain a moribund national economy which gets worse as
     time passes.
     4) A bit about the psychology of the American people, and
     the propaganda tricks which are used to deceive them.

HOW AMERICA WILL COLLAPSE

     There are two options--neither one desirable--but I cannot
say with certainty which will prevail because I broke my crystal
ball last week, and my Tarot cards are out for repair.
     One possibility is that political revolution will come
first, if apathetic Americans can be galvanized to take decisive
action to force reconstruction of our corrupt bureaucracy at all
levels.  A proposal for the first step is a Constitutional
amendment to bring the American people back into the political
process in a meaningful way.  See THE TIME BOMB IN OUR CONSTITU-
TION for details on our plan to restore freedom and civil rights
in a country which is shown to be a de facto police state, though
not recognized by the mentally retarded majority.
     The second possibility is more likely, in my opinion--
namely, that Americans are too cowardly to take action until
economic collapse becomes a reality.  That collapse will come
with the end of Social Security and the sudden termination of all
welfare programs which bleed all Americans to support the present
corrupt regime.
     With the collapse of government programs and, therefore, the
entire government, the so-called "Domino Effect" will cause a
remorseless chain reaction worldwide.  First, American money will
instantly become as worthless as Faberge eggs, and Wall Street
must crash almost immediately.  With the collapse of Wall Street,
all foreign exchanges must follow as the panic spreads, and our
so-called leaders--a pack of congenital idiots--look, for the
first time, for lifeboats on the S.S. Titanic.  There aren't any,
because the Titanic is unsinkable, right?
     So, must we all sing hymns as the ragtime band plays
"Nearer, My God, to Thee"?

BUT WAIT!  IS THAT A SHIP ON THE HORIZON?!  CAN WE BE SAVED?!

     Maybe.
     It's the U.S. Congress, and if the crew is intelligent
enough to see what needs to be done--and has the courage and
integrity to do it--they might yet be able to keep us afloat and
tow us to shore safely.
     The problem is that the crew of the U.S. Congress has been
on a binge for sixty years, getting drunk with power--that's
always been our problem.  Will there be any heroes on board the
Congress who'll sober up in a hurry and do what has to be done?
     I'll have the script for our eleventh-hour rescue in my next
article.
     But will anybody in Washington read it?

                                      Kirk Brothers

How America will collapse (by 2025)

Four scenarios that could spell the end of the United States as we know it — in the very near future

By Alfred McCoy

How America will collapse (by 2025)



This piece originally appeared on TomDispatch.

A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don’t bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.

Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.

Future historians are likely to identify the Bush administration’s rash invasion of Iraq in that year as the start of America’s downfall. However, instead of the bloodshed that marked the end of so many past empires, with cities burning and civilians slaughtered, this twenty-first century imperial collapse could come relatively quietly through the invisible tendrils of economic collapse or cyberwarfare.

But have no doubt: when Washington’s global dominion finally ends, there will be painful daily reminders of what such a loss of power means for Americans in every walk of life. As a half-dozen European nations have discovered, imperial decline tends to have a remarkably demoralizing impact on a society, regularly bringing at least a generation of economic privation. As the economy cools, political temperatures rise, often sparking serious domestic unrest.

Available economic, educational, and military data indicate that, when it comes to U.S. global power, negative trends will aggregate rapidly by 2020 and are likely to reach a critical mass no later than 2030. The American Century, proclaimed so triumphantly at the start of World War II, will be tattered and fading by 2025, its eighth decade, and could be history by 2030.

Significantly, in 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council admitted for the first time that America’s global power was indeed on a declining trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports, Global Trends 2025, the Council cited “the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East” and “without precedent in modern history,” as the primary factor in the decline of the “United States’ relative strength — even in the military realm.” Like many in Washington, however, the Council’s analysts anticipated a very long, very soft landing for American global preeminence, and harbored the hope that somehow the U.S. would long “retain unique military capabilities… to project military power globally” for decades to come.

No such luck. Under current projections, the United States will find itself in second place behind China (already the world’s second largest economy) in economic output around 2026, and behind India by 2050. Similarly, Chinese innovation is on a trajectory toward world leadership in applied science and military technology sometime between 2020 and 2030, just as America’s current supply of brilliant scientists and engineers retires, without adequate replacement by an ill-educated younger generation.

By 2020, according to current plans, the Pentagon will throw a military Hail Mary pass for a dying empire. It will launch a lethal triple canopy of advanced aerospace robotics that represents Washington’s last best hope of retaining global power despite its waning economic influence. By that year, however, China’s global network of communications satellites, backed by the world’s most powerful supercomputers, will also be fully operational, providing Beijing with an independent platform for the weaponization of space and a powerful communications system for missile- or cyber-strikes into every quadrant of the globe.

Wrapped in imperial hubris, like Whitehall or Quai d’Orsay before it, the White House still seems to imagine that American decline will be gradual, gentle, and partial. In his State of the Union address last January, President Obama offered the reassurance that “I do not accept second place for the United States of America.” A few days later, Vice President Biden ridiculed the very idea that “we are destined to fulfill [historian Paul] Kennedy’s prophecy that we are going to be a great nation that has failed because we lost control of our economy and overextended.” Similarly, writing in the November issue of the establishment journal Foreign Affairs, neo-liberal foreign policy guru Joseph Nye waved away talk of China’s economic and military rise, dismissing “misleading metaphors of organic decline” and denying that any deterioration in U.S. global power was underway.

Ordinary Americans, watching their jobs head overseas, have a more realistic view than their cosseted leaders. An opinion poll in August 2010 found that 65 percent of Americans believed the country was now “in a state of decline.”  Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China. Already, America’s closest economic partners are backing away from Washington’s opposition to China’s rigged currency rates. As the president flew back from his Asian tour last month, a gloomy New York Times headline  summed the moment up this way: “Obama’s Economic View Is Rejected on World Stage, China, Britain and Germany Challenge U.S., Trade Talks With Seoul Fail, Too.”

Viewed historically, the question is not whether the United States will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how precipitous and wrenching the decline will be. In place of Washington’s wishful thinking, let’s use the National Intelligence Council’s own futuristic methodology to suggest four realistic scenarios for how, whether with a bang or a whimper, U.S. global power could reach its end in the 2020s (along with four accompanying assessments of just where we are today). The future scenarios include: economic decline, oil shock, military misadventure, and World War III. While these are hardly the only possibilities when it comes to American decline or even collapse, they offer a window into an onrushing future.

Economic Decline: Present Situation

Today, three main threats exist to America’s dominant position in the global economy: loss of economic clout thanks to a shrinking share of world trade, the decline of American technological innovation, and the end of the dollar’s privileged status as the global reserve currency.

By 2008, the United States had already fallen to number three in global merchandise exports, with just 11 percent of them compared to 12 percent for China and 16 percent for the European Union. There is no reason to believe that this trend will reverse itself.

Similarly, American leadership in technological innovation is on the wane. In 2008, the U.S. was still number two behind Japan in worldwide patent applications with 232,000, but China was closing fast at 195,000, thanks to a blistering 400 percent increase since 2000. A harbinger of further decline: in 2009 the U.S. hit rock bottom in ranking among the 40 nations surveyed by the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation when it came to “change” in “global innovation-based competitiveness” during the previous decade. Adding substance to these statistics, in October China’s Defense Ministry unveiled the world’s fastest supercomputer, the Tianhe-1A, so powerful, said one U.S. expert, that it “blows away the existing No. 1 machine” in America.

Add to this clear evidence that the U.S. education system, that source of future scientists and innovators, has been falling behind its competitors. After leading the world for decades in 25- to 34-year-olds with university degrees, the country sank to 12th place in 2010. The World Economic Forum ranked the United States at a mediocre 52nd among 139 nations in the quality of its university math and science instruction in 2010. Nearly half of all graduate students in the sciences in the U.S. are now foreigners, most of whom will be heading home, not staying here as once would have happened. By 2025, in other words, the United States is likely to face a critical shortage of talented scientists.

Such negative trends are encouraging increasingly sharp criticism of the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. “Other countries are no longer willing to buy into the idea that the U.S. knows best on economic policy,” observed Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. In mid-2009, with the world’s central banks holding an astronomical $4 trillion in U.S. Treasury notes, Russian president Dimitri Medvedev insisted that it was time to end “the artificially maintained unipolar system” based on “one formerly strong reserve currency.”

Simultaneously, China’s central bank governor suggested that the future might lie with a global reserve currency “disconnected from individual nations” (that is, the U.S. dollar). Take these as signposts of a world to come, and of a possible attempt, as economist Michael Hudson has argued, “to hasten the bankruptcy of the U.S. financial-military world order.”

Economic Decline: Scenario 2020

After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world’s reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. Under pressure at home and abroad, Washington slowly pulls U.S. forces back from hundreds of overseas bases to a continental perimeter. By now, however, it is far too late.

Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying the bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers, great and regional, provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace. Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages, domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over remarkably irrelevant issues. Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal. The world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.

Oil Shock: Present Situation

One casualty of America’s waning economic power has been its lock on global oil supplies. Speeding by America’s gas-guzzling economy in the passing lane, China became the world’s number one energy consumer this summer, a position the U.S. had held for over a century. Energy specialist Michael Klare has argued that this change means China will “set the pace in shaping our global future.”

By 2025, Iran and Russia will control almost half of the world’s natural gas supply, which will potentially give them enormous leverage over energy-starved Europe. Add petroleum reserves to the mix and, as the National Intelligence Council has warned, in just 15 years two countries, Russia and Iran, could “emerge as energy kingpins.”

Despite remarkable ingenuity, the major oil powers are now draining the big basins of petroleum reserves that are amenable to easy, cheap extraction. The real lesson of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico was not BP’s sloppy safety standards, but the simple fact everyone saw on “spillcam”: one of the corporate energy giants had little choice but to search for what Klare calls “tough oil” miles beneath the surface of the ocean to keep its profits up.

Compounding the problem, the Chinese and Indians have suddenly become far heavier energy consumers. Even if fossil fuel supplies were to remain constant (which they won’t), demand, and so costs, are almost certain to rise — and sharply at that. Other developed nations are meeting this threat aggressively by plunging into experimental programs to develop alternative energy sources. The United States has taken a different path, doing far too little to develop alternative sources while, in the last three decades, doubling its dependence on foreign oil imports. Between 1973 and 2007, oil imports have risen from 36 percent of energy consumed in the U.S. to 66 percent.

Oil Shock: Scenario 2025

The United States remains so dependent upon foreign oil that a few adverse developments in the global energy market in 2025 spark an oil shock. By comparison, it makes the 1973 oil shock (when prices quadrupled in just months) look like the proverbial molehill. Angered at the dollar’s plummeting value, OPEC oil ministers, meeting in Riyadh, demand future energy payments in a “basket” of Yen, Yuan, and Euros. That only hikes the cost of U.S. oil imports further. At the same moment, while signing a new series of long-term delivery contracts with China, the Saudis stabilize their own foreign exchange reserves by switching to the Yuan. Meanwhile, China pours countless billions into building a massive trans-Asia pipeline and funding Iran’s exploitation of the world largest percent natural gas field at South Pars in the Persian Gulf.

Concerned that the U.S. Navy might no longer be able to protect the oil tankers traveling from the Persian Gulf to fuel East Asia, a coalition of Tehran, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi form an unexpected new Gulf alliance and affirm that China’s new fleet of swift aircraft carriers will henceforth patrol the Persian Gulf from a base on the Gulf of Oman. Under heavy economic pressure, London agrees to cancel the U.S. lease on its Indian Ocean island base of Diego Garcia, while Canberra, pressured by the Chinese, informs Washington that the Seventh Fleet is no longer welcome to use Fremantle as a homeport, effectively evicting the U.S. Navy from the Indian Ocean.

With just a few strokes of the pen and some terse announcements, the “Carter Doctrine,” by which U.S. military power was to eternally protect the Persian Gulf, is laid to rest in 2025. All the elements that long assured the United States limitless supplies of low-cost oil from that region — logistics, exchange rates, and naval power — evaporate. At this point, the U.S. can still cover only an insignificant 12 percent of its energy needs from its nascent alternative energy industry, and remains dependent on imported oil for half of its energy consumption.

The oil shock that follows hits the country like a hurricane, sending prices to startling heights, making travel a staggeringly expensive proposition, putting real wages (which had long been declining) into freefall, and rendering non-competitive whatever American exports remained. With thermostats dropping, gas prices climbing through the roof, and dollars flowing overseas in return for costly oil, the American economy is paralyzed. With long-fraying alliances at an end and fiscal pressures mounting, U.S. military forces finally begin a staged withdrawal from their overseas bases.

Within a few years, the U.S. is functionally bankrupt and the clock is ticking toward midnight on the American Century.

Military Misadventure: Present Situation

Counterintuitively, as their power wanes, empires often plunge into ill-advised military misadventures. This phenomenon is known among historians of empire as “micro-militarism” and seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories, however briefly and catastrophically. These operations, irrational even from an imperial point of view, often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power.

Embattled empires through the ages suffer an arrogance that drives them to plunge ever deeper into military misadventures until defeat becomes debacle. In 413 BCE, a weakened Athens sent 200 ships to be slaughtered in Sicily. In 1921, a dying imperial Spain dispatched 20,000 soldiers to be massacred by Berber guerrillas in Morocco. In 1956, a fading British Empire destroyed its prestige by attacking Suez. And in 2001 and 2003, the U.S. occupied Afghanistan and invaded Iraq. With the hubris that marks empires over the millennia, Washington has increased its troops in Afghanistan to 100,000, expanded the war into Pakistan, and extended its commitment to 2014 and beyond, courting disasters large and small in this guerilla-infested, nuclear-armed graveyard of empires.

Military Misadventure: Scenario 2014

So irrational, so unpredictable is “micro-militarism” that seemingly fanciful scenarios are soon outdone by actual events. With the U.S. military stretched thin from Somalia to the Philippines and tensions rising in Israel, Iran, and Korea, possible combinations for a disastrous military crisis abroad are multifold.

It’s mid-summer 2014 and a drawn-down U.S. garrison in embattled Kandahar in southern Afghanistan is suddenly, unexpectedly overrun by Taliban guerrillas, while U.S. aircraft are grounded by a blinding sandstorm. Heavy loses are taken and in retaliation, an embarrassed American war commander looses B-1 bombers and F-16 fighters to demolish whole neighborhoods of the city that are believed to be under Taliban control, while AC-130U “Spooky” gunships rake the rubble with devastating cannon fire.

Soon, mullahs are preaching jihad from mosques throughout the region, and Afghan Army units, long trained by American forces to turn the tide of the war, begin to desert en masse. Taliban fighters then launch a series of remarkably sophisticated strikes aimed at U.S. garrisons across the country, sending American casualties soaring. In scenes reminiscent of Saigon in 1975, U.S. helicopters rescue American soldiers and civilians from rooftops in Kabul and Kandahar.

Meanwhile, angry at the endless, decades-long stalemate over Palestine, OPEC’s leaders impose a new oil embargo on the U.S. to protest its backing of Israel as well as the killing of untold numbers of Muslim civilians in its ongoing wars across the Greater Middle East. With gas prices soaring and refineries running dry, Washington makes its move, sending in Special Operations forces to seize oil ports in the Persian Gulf. This, in turn, sparks a rash of suicide attacks and the sabotage of pipelines and oil wells. As black clouds billow skyward and diplomats rise at the U.N. to bitterly denounce American actions, commentators worldwide reach back into history to brand this “America’s Suez,” a telling reference to the 1956 debacle that marked the end of the British Empire.

World War III: Present Situation

In the summer of 2010, military tensions between the U.S. and China began to rise in the western Pacific, once considered an American “lake.” Even a year earlier no one would have predicted such a development. As Washington played upon its alliance with London to appropriate much of Britain’s global power after World War II, so China is now using the profits from its export trade with the U.S. to fund what is likely to become a military challenge to American dominion over the waterways of Asia and the Pacific.

With its growing resources, Beijing is claiming a vast maritime arc from Korea to Indonesia long dominated by the U.S. Navy. In August, after Washington expressed a “national interest” in the South China Sea and conducted naval exercises there to reinforce that claim, Beijing’s official Global Times responded angrily, saying, “The U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real future ruler of the planet will be.”

Amid growing tensions, the Pentagon reported that Beijing now holds “the capability to attack… [U.S.] aircraft carriers in the western Pacific Ocean” and target “nuclear forces throughout… the continental United States.” By developing “offensive nuclear, space, and cyber warfare capabilities,” China seems determined to vie for dominance of what the Pentagon calls “the information spectrum in all dimensions of the modern battlespace.” With ongoing development of the powerful Long March V booster rocket, as well as the launch of two satellites in January 2010 and another in July, for a total of five, Beijing signaled that the country was making rapid strides toward an “independent” network of 35 satellites for global positioning, communications, and reconnaissance capabilities by 2020.

To check China and extend its military position globally, Washington is intent on building a new digital network of air and space robotics, advanced cyberwarfare capabilities, and electronic surveillance. Military planners expect this integrated system to envelop the Earth in a cyber-grid capable of blinding entire armies on the battlefield or taking out a single terrorist in field or favela. By 2020, if all goes according to plan, the Pentagon will launch a three-tiered shield of space drones — reaching from stratosphere to exosphere, armed with agile missiles, linked by a resilient modular satellite system, and operated through total telescopic surveillance.

Last April, the Pentagon made history. It extended drone operations into the exosphere by quietly launching the X-37B unmanned space shuttle into a low orbit 255 miles above the planet.  The X-37B is the first in a new generation of unmanned vehicles that will mark the full weaponization of space, creating an arena for future warfare unlike anything that has gone before.

World War III: Scenario 2025

The technology of space and cyberwarfare is so new and untested that even the most outlandish scenarios may soon be superseded by a reality still hard to conceive. If we simply employ the sort of scenarios that the Air Force itself used in its 2009 Future Capabilities Game, however, we can gain “a better understanding of how air, space and cyberspace overlap in warfare,” and so begin to imagine how the next world war might actually be fought.

It’s 11:59 p.m. on Thanksgiving Thursday in 2025. While cyber-shoppers pound the portals of Best Buy for deep discounts on the latest home electronics from China, U.S. Air Force technicians at the Space Surveillance Telescope (SST) on Maui choke on their coffee as their panoramic screens suddenly blip to black. Thousands of miles away at the U.S. CyberCommand’s operations center in Texas, cyberwarriors soon detect malicious binaries that, though fired anonymously, show the distinctive digital fingerprints of China’s People’s Liberation Army.

The first overt strike is one nobody predicted. Chinese “malware” seizes control of the robotics aboard an unmanned solar-powered U.S. “Vulture” drone as it flies at 70,000 feet over the Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan. It suddenly fires all the rocket pods beneath its enormous 400-foot wingspan, sending dozens of lethal missiles plunging harmlessly into the Yellow Sea, effectively disarming this formidable weapon.

Determined to fight fire with fire, the White House authorizes a retaliatory strike. Confident that its F-6 “Fractionated, Free-Flying” satellite system is impenetrable, Air Force commanders in California transmit robotic codes to the flotilla of X-37B space drones orbiting 250 miles above the Earth, ordering them to launch their “Triple Terminator” missiles at China’s 35 satellites. Zero response. In near panic, the Air Force launches its Falcon Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle into an arc 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and then, just 20 minutes later, sends the computer codes to fire missiles at seven Chinese satellites in nearby orbits. The launch codes are suddenly inoperative.

As the Chinese virus spreads uncontrollably through the F-6 satellite architecture, while those second-rate U.S. supercomputers fail to crack the malware’s devilishly complex code, GPS signals crucial to the navigation of U.S. ships and aircraft worldwide are compromised. Carrier fleets begin steaming in circles in the mid-Pacific. Fighter squadrons are grounded. Reaper drones fly aimlessly toward the horizon, crashing when their fuel is exhausted. Suddenly, the United States loses what the U.S. Air Force has long called “the ultimate high ground”: space. Within hours, the military power that had dominated the globe for nearly a century has been defeated in World War III without a single human casualty.

A New World Order?

Even if future events prove duller than these four scenarios suggest, every significant trend points toward a far more striking decline in American global power by 2025 than anything Washington now seems to be envisioning.

As allies worldwide begin to realign their policies to take cognizance of rising Asian powers, the cost of maintaining 800 or more overseas military bases will simply become unsustainable, finally forcing a staged withdrawal on a still-unwilling Washington. With both the U.S. and China in a race to weaponize space and cyberspace, tensions between the two powers are bound to rise, making military conflict by 2025 at least feasible, if hardly guaranteed.

Complicating matters even more, the economic, military, and technological trends outlined above will not operate in tidy isolation. As happened to European empires after World War II, such negative forces will undoubtedly prove synergistic. They will combine in thoroughly unexpected ways, create crises for which Americans are remarkably unprepared, and threaten to spin the economy into a sudden downward spiral, consigning this country to a generation or more of economic misery.

As U.S. power recedes, the past offers a spectrum of possibilities for a future world order. At one end of this spectrum, the rise of a new global superpower, however unlikely, cannot be ruled out. Yet both China and Russia evince self-referential cultures, recondite non-roman scripts, regional defense strategies, and underdeveloped legal systems, denying them key instruments for global dominion. At the moment then, no single superpower seems to be on the horizon likely to succeed the U.S.

In a dark, dystopian version of our global future, a coalition of transnational corporations, multilateral forces like NATO, and an international financial elite could conceivably forge a single, possibly unstable, supra-national nexus that would make it no longer meaningful to speak of national empires at all. While denationalized corporations and multinational elites would assumedly rule such a world from secure urban enclaves, the multitudes would be relegated to urban and rural wastelands.

In “Planet of Slums,” Mike Davis offers at least a partial vision of such a world from the bottom up. He argues that the billion people already packed into fetid favela-style slums worldwide (rising to two billion by 2030) will make “the ‘feral, failed cities’ of the Third World… the distinctive battlespace of the twenty-first century.” As darkness settles over some future super-favela, “the empire can deploy Orwellian technologies of repression” as “hornet-like helicopter gun-ships stalk enigmatic enemies in the narrow streets of the slum districts… Every morning the slums reply with suicide bombers and eloquent explosions.”

At a midpoint on the spectrum of possible futures, a new global oligopoly might emerge between 2020 and 2040, with rising powers China, Russia, India, and Brazil collaborating with receding powers like Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States to enforce an ad hoc global dominion, akin to the loose alliance of European empires that ruled half of humanity circa 1900.

Another possibility: the rise of regional hegemons in a return to something reminiscent of the international system that operated before modern empires took shape. In this neo-Westphalian world order, with its endless vistas of micro-violence and unchecked exploitation, each hegemon would dominate its immediate region — Brasilia in South America, Washington in North America, Pretoria in southern Africa, and so on. Space, cyberspace, and the maritime deeps, removed from the control of the former planetary “policeman,” the United States, might even become a new global commons, controlled through an expanded U.N. Security Council or some ad hoc body.

All of these scenarios extrapolate existing trends into the future on the assumption that Americans, blinded by the arrogance of decades of historically unparalleled power, cannot or will not take steps to manage the unchecked erosion of their global position.

If America’s decline is in fact on a 22-year trajectory from 2003 to 2025, then we have already frittered away most of the first decade of that decline with wars that distracted us from long-term problems and, like water tossed onto desert sands, wasted trillions of desperately needed dollars.

If only 15 years remain, the odds of frittering them all away still remain high. Congress and the president are now in gridlock; the American system is flooded with corporate money meant to jam up the works; and there is little suggestion that any issues of significance, including our wars, our bloated national security state, our starved education system, and our antiquated energy supplies, will be addressed with sufficient seriousness to assure the sort of soft landing that might maximize our country’s role and prosperity in a changing world.

Europe’s empires are gone and America’s imperium is going. It seems increasingly doubtful that the United States will have anything like Britain’s success in shaping a succeeding world order that protects its interests, preserves its prosperity, and bears the imprint of its best values.

  • Alfred W. McCoy is the J.R.W. Smail Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is the author of A Question of Torture: CIA Interrogation, “From the Cold War to the War on Terror.” Later this year, “Policing America’s Empire: The United States, the Philippines, and the Rise of the Surveillance State,” a forthcoming book of his, will explore the influence of overseas counterinsurgency operations on the spread of internal security measures here at home. More: Alfred W. McCoy






Obama Wins the Budget Battle

Obama Wins the Budget Battle

http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2011/07/friday-afternoon-roundup-obama-wins.html

THE TAO OF STUPID

 Sheila Jackson-Lee might be the dumbest person in congress. She might even be the dumbest person outside congress. If there were ever a global championship for idiots, the country could send her there. And leave her there; because unlike Lassie, she wouldn’t be able find her way back on her own.

When Enron wanted someone to use as a puppet, they picked Sheila Jackson-Lee. They wanted a woman who didn’t have a mind of her own. Enron executives described her as “agreeable”, which was a polite way of saying, “dumber than a bunch of rocks caught in the hubcaps of a slow bus going the wrong way on a one way street in the middle of a flood.”

That’s from my Front Page Magazine article, Sheila Jackson Lee: Racist and Moron. That was the polite title. Unfortunately congressional Republicans aren’t exactly outscoring her right now.

The amount of friendly fire by a circular firing squad is what you would expect after losing an election. And the blogs that specialize in shouting, “Fight, Fight” and then standing by and racking up hit counts by pushing more fights aren’t exactly helping.

After spending two months kicking around Newt Gingrich, the GOP 2011 has mishandled the budget standoff while learning no lessons from his tenure. Obama’s goals were fairly simple and so far he’s achieved most of them.

1. Pin the blame for the impasse on Republicans

2. Divide the Republican leadership from the grass roots

3. Force through a “compromise” budget that gives him everything he wants and leaves the other side with nothing of substance that he can’t bypass.

The media covered the first part, with the aid of a GOP in communication breakdown mode. The GOP is now deep in circular firing squad mode which covers the second part. And the third is likely still to come.

A budget battle against a media entrenched Oval Office occupant, with only the House, but not the Senate was always a dicey proposition. It would take a strong negotiator with a powerful public presence to hold up the GOP side.

The goal on the Democratic side isn’t to pass a budget, but to create a crisis, pin the blame on the GOP, and particularly the Tea Party, wait for the opposition to fracture, and collect the winnings of a frantic compromise budget. And here we are.

Obama’s plan was to leave the mess in the House, have the Senate veto anything sent up, and give regular press conferences warning of imminent disaster. And it’s worked out fairly well. It’s irresponsible and there are Democrats in the know who are disgusted by it. But the same holds true for his entire tenure. It looks increasingly like he was able to bluff the Republican party, then divide and conquer.

This won’t destroy the Tea Party or give Obama a second term. But it sets a dangerous precedent in an election year. If the Republican party can be outmaneuvered on this, how good does the election really look?

Boehner is not the problem, but he is “a” problem. He seems to have been chosen for his inoffensive qualities. No one wanted a repeat of Gingrich vs Clinton. Fair enough. But there were better choices. The Republican party has no public face, and while that avoids the danger of being Gingriched, it lets the media put its own face on the party. With no real response.

The GOP does need a public face. A great communicator who’s telegenic and articulate, charming and able to be on every news program at the same time. Those aren’t impossible requirements. But in a party that puts forward the likes of Boehner, Pawlenty, Paul Ryan and wonders why they won’t connect, that is a challenge. More of one than it should be.

The larger problem though is strategic. Going into the budget fight, the only ammunition on the GOP side was an expectation that the Democrats would want to work toward a deal. And that was a mistaken assumption. The Dems had nothing to gain from a deal, and everything to lose.

The Democratic party lost badly in 2010. Obama’s polling is equally disastrous. Even if the left wing gang that controls the party now was interested in being good citizens, their only shot is to sabotage the GOP. And that’s what they’re doing. They’re not prepared to take real damage to do it, but they were betting that the Republican party wouldn’t either. Because the GOP is rising, and when you’re rising, then you have more to lose.

The challenge here wasn’t impossible, but it wasn’t easy either. And the Republican party blew it. But losing a battle is also valuable. It’s a wake up call before losing the war.

New Global world order

The Post American Vision

We can all say with absolute certainty that economic collapse is certain, all indicators point towards collapse, without any doubt, and more then likely this event will occur in the next few years or sooner. I’d like to speculate on the world that will unfold in the years post an economic collapse of the American nation, and its effect globally.

Let’s get started, the American homeland will suffer through a depression never before seen in the industrialized, starvation, crime, governments at all levels will have either collapsed, or in the process of collapse. Major cities will erupt into urban warfare zones, as police struggle to maintain law and order. The economy will have all but destabilized, and unemployment will skyrocket to 50-65% range. Crime will be rampant, and armed civilian check points common.  Most communities will be segregated along ethnic border lines, and inter ethnic violence growing exponentially. Governments will be forced to cut entitlement spending, and resulting civilian ethnic warfare will bring the nation to a standstill. Mexico’s civil war will bleed into the american southwest, we expect most Mexicans to return home during this time period due to lack of opportunities and unavailable employment in the united states. Cities will continue to separate themselves by race, and states will also separate themselves based on core identity. The federal reserve will be declared insolvent, and the federal government ineffective, federal armed forces will mobilize to protect cities wherein they reside, and major bases will become safe zones, but otherwise the army will lack the manpower to enforce law and order on Americas 315 million people, they will play a wait and see campaign, combined with support missions for overseas units.

States with standing guard units will abolish the federal power structure within their respected states, and move to secure there own interests. High population states like new York and California will collapse into violence, while states like Oklahoma and north Dakota will unify under the banner of freedom from federal tyranny. Effectively the federal government will have collapsed at this point, military commanders overseas will attempt to redeploy to the homeland to support efforts to stabilize major cities, although this will prove ineffective in the end. A reorganization of the government, a constitutional convention, and a rebuilding effort will be undertaken by the surviving population. We expect tens of millions of deaths, possibly a hundred million if the collapse lasts more then a year, either way the nation will be changed forever, new ideas, an emphasis on the community an one’s own ethnic kin will become common place.

Its during this time a second war with Mexico will be fought, primarily a war of occupation that will evolve into a war of ethnic cleansing as new the American government seizes power, and total extent of Mexico’s complacency in Americas fall from power is revealed to the remaining American population. Conflict will last no more then a couple weeks as Mexico’s government will have already fallen from internal threats. The new ideology of America will determine the fate of central america, including Mexico’s fate, but occupation and annexation is certain for the territories to the south, it remains to be seen the fate of its population.

Inter nation conflict and civil unrest will be occurring in every european nation as nationalists and socialists battle over control of europe.  Two camps will eventual remain, the islamist’s transplants and the pro-european nationalists, but a war between britain and france is highly likely.  Russia will likely be battling its own internal islamic threats as well as its nationalist elements, destabilization and reorganization will likely occur. Eastern europe will also be involved in internal conflicts ranging from civil unrest to full rebellion as we have seen recently in greece.  

Most of South america will formally unite under the banner of socialism, and a new socialist union of states will be formed, eventually American nationalists will also engage in warfare with these nations , a gorilla war and puppet government campaign will result as US interest will become the priority, and allowing a new enemy state to develops in our hemisphere would not be tolerated. Occupation and ethnic cleansing is expected.

The main war for this global conflict will be in asia. We know china is preparing to challenge America militarily, so conflict with china is also certain, but not likely until no other choice is available, and they are militarily ready to challenge our armed forces, and supporting allies in the region. Such a scenario is likely to occur only after America has been weakened militarily through massive budget cuts, overly extended campaigns across the globe, and economic collapse. This scenario has a high degree of certainty that it will be fulfilled within the next 10 years. The conflict will involve japan, south korea, Taiwan, india, most south east asian nations, all in an alliance with the United States.  China will be allied with pakistan, north korea, and various islamic nations in opposition against allied forces.  This conflict will be the second time, nuclear weapons are used against civilian populations, india, pakistan, china mainland, will be hit the hardest with causalities in the hundreds of millions. Mainland japan, and US also should expect losses in the tens of millions, this depends on the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and if china is capable of deploying nuclear subs within reach of the US mainland.  This war will involve all sides deploying ground troops mainly in asia/india, and various islands in south china sea, ground troops on allied sides should expect use of advanced robotic systems to support human soldiers. UAV, robotic ground units, stationary robotic suppression systems, and other technologies should be expected in wide use during such a war. Heavy fighting within urban areas, and gorilla warfare in surrounding combat zones of conflict, china should also expect internal threats in addition to external.

In the initial stages of the war we can expect south korea to be overrun by the north, Taiwan to fall within a matter of days, and japan to lose partial control over some of its islands. We also expect crimes against humanity during this war. Americas ability to engage in this war initially will be limited to naval air power and its various bases in asia, although china will target these location in a first strike nuclear exchange resulting in heavy loss by the United States. As the war unfolds, indias ability to fight a war on 3 fronts will be challenged, as pakistan forces launch attacks from the west, china attacks from the north, indian enemies to the east, and internal threats destabilize the nations major cities along ethnic-religious lines. India will suffer massive losses also in the hundreds of millions. It is also certain nuclear detonations will destroy most of India’s cities.

Japan will also suffer initial losses but American bases should minimize these losses. Taiwan will also suffer major losses, and will primarily be fighting for its independence from china’s occupation forces, same goes for south korea, all sides will be involved in a gorilla warfare campaign throughout asia. 

This global war will peak with Russia entering on the side of America along with Iran and most of Europe. The global conflict will involve fronts, in south america, asia, europe and the middle east. We expect islamist nation to declare war on israel, and america to support israel economically, but not with military forces. War in europe will involve either the united states at war with Brittan or France. Most major cities around the world will be destroyed during world war 3. The planets human population will be depleted to just over 4 billion, starvation will become common place, and all nations will be unable to assist in the rebuilding of anything other then their own nations, so most nations will remain in a state of ruin for decades to come.

We expect the world will reorganize with a new euro-centric alliance between America, Europe, and Russia. Much of the globe will return to a pre industrialized state. Trade, technology, information, will be restricted, to the new global super power, “northern alliance.” A Euro-American-Russo alliance. Other than japan and small parts of asia, most of the planet will be unable to rebuild.  In a world destabilized by diversity, free trade globalism, and entitlement spendings, no such place will exist for them post collapse. Tribalism will be the new law of the land, the UN will have been found useless, liberalism ignorant of the reality of human differences, a new order for the ages will have been founded.