COGNITIVE DECLINE: THE IRREDUCIBLE
LEGACY OF OPEN BORDERS
Cognitive decline, the result of third world immigration, differential fecundity and gene flow, will mark the end of Western ascendancy. Described herein is the path to collapse and the improbable circumstances surrounding its discovery.
Let martial note in triumph float
And liberty extend its mighty hand
A flag appears ‘mid thunderous cheers,
The banner of the Western land.
–John Philip Sousa
Prodigy’s Journal, December 14, 2004
I had seen little of Mentor lately and so grew eager as I neared his house. Crossing Oxford Street, my collar turned up against the wind, I wondered why I had been summoned. No way could I have anticipated the events that would follow.
“Come in,” said Mentor answering the bell.
He seemed less effusive than usual, imperceptibly more introspective. “Have some cookies,” he said, adjusting quickly to his guest. I sensed he was glad to see me.
“Thank you,” said I, “M & Ms are my favorite.”
“You may be curious why I asked you to here today, Prodigy.”
“I confess I am, Mentor.”
Mentor walked across the room. He sat down at the piano and began to sing while improvising an accompaniment.
Freude, schöner Götterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische, dein Heiligtum!
Mentor was multi-channeled, so it was not unusual for him to improvise at the piano during a conversation. In fact, now and then he would read Physical Review Letters as well. I had become used to this ritual, and consequently did not look to Schiller’s verse for clues to why I was there. The reason was made clear soon enough. Suddenly Mentor stopped playing. Turning about to face me, he put his fingertips together and leaned slightly forward.
“I have a woman friend whom I sometimes see.”
“Her son, Fifo, wrote me a letter. It concerns you.”
Mentor walked to his desk and took from it a sheet of paper. “Here, read it yourself.”
The salutation took me by surprise. I read on.
A frequent visitor to my house, Uncle Wim, has acquainted me with some disturbing facts. (I should clarify that it is he, not I, who is disturbed.) His concern is with third-world immigration to his native Netherlands, mostly by Surinamese, Antilleans, Turks and Moroccans. They have, he claims, flooded the country, pushing crime, welfare dependency and unemployment to new levels.
Uncle Wim has become a terrible bore, going on and on about how Muslims will ruin the country. I know that, in the long haul, inflow of low-IQ peoples cannot help but depress the Dutch economy, so I referred him to Prodigy’s smart fraction theory for an explanation of how. Unfortunately, he does not seem to understand it. (Uncle Wim’s intellect is not quite up to his good looks.)
Mother tells me you actually know Prodigy. She has got the idea that I should be more like him. (You know how she is always pushing me to excel.) She thinks a term paper on smart fraction theory and immigration would boost my class standing. Unfortunately, I am a bit of an academic slouch, and lacking Prodigy’s precocity I fear her ambitions for me will never be realized. She asked Uncle Wim to help me, little knowing how absurd was that request. Still, I would very much like to please her, as I know you would too. Do you think you might prevail upon Prodigy to help me? I would be forever in your debt. Mother assures me, Uncle, that she too would be ever grateful.
I toyed with making some goofy remark about Fifo’s Dutch uncle, but repressed the temptation. It was plain that Mentor was deadly serious. “I shall do what I can,” I volunteered.
“Thank you,” said Mentor, obviously relieved.
I could not imagine that Mentor would himself be unable to perform this little service for Fifo. Underneath Mentor’s forehead I imagined a gigantic brain struggling to compete with his unseen rival, Uncle Wim. Mentor’s prodigious powers were of little value in this arena. I was glad to help.
“Fifo is brighter than he admits,” I offered. “He understands that a country’s economic success is causally connected to the intelligence of its people; that a nation of dimwits cannot compete with a nation of philosophers; and that between the simpleton and the savant lies a distribution of intellect that differs among peoples. Fifo knows that immigration from the third world will move the center of gravity of brainpower down the IQ spectrum, and in the long run, through influx, fecundity and gene flow, will have a lasting effect.
“We do not want Fifo to get lost in the details of smart fraction theory. Therefore, we should make some qualitative points. Fifo should understand that the theory is based on the idea that a country’s economic success is limited by the cognitive ability of its workforce. Bookkeepers, credit clerks, lab techs, salesmen, secretaries, sales account executives, administrative assistants, store managers etc. are the folks who, in a market economy, do the heavy lifting. They are not rocket scientists, but they do fall on the right side of the bell curve. They form what I call a nation’s ‘smart fraction.’ When their supply is exhausted, economic growth shuts down. The fundamental assertion of smart fraction theory is that per capita GDP is proportional to the size of a country’s smart fraction, a proposition established empirically in The Smart Fraction Theory of IQ and the Wealth of Nations and also in Smart Fraction Theory II: Why Asians Lag, where it was determined that a verbal IQ of about 106 sets the lower bound of the smart fraction.
“Cognitive differences between groups are sometimes difficult to detect. In fact, in the ordinary exchanges of life, a full standard deviation could easily go undetected. Suppose, as reported by Lynn and Vanhanen in IQ and the Wealth of Nations, the mean IQ of Belgians is one standard deviation greater than that of Moroccans. If we randomly select one Moroccan and one Belgian, the Moroccan will be the smarter in about one of four trials. Such an inherent cognitive difference might well be overlooked in social settings where charm, appearance and social grace often control human interaction. In the proper context, however, even small cognitive gaps will have profound effects. Because of the one SD difference, less than 9 percent of Moroccans can do smart-fraction work, compared to 36 percent of Belgians. Viewed in this way it is easy to understand the different living standards of the two peoples.”
“I am eager for you to go on,” interjected Mentor, “but let us eat before you continue. Are you hungry?”
“As you know I am always hungry, Mentor.”
“Good, we shall dine on fare that has been known for five-hundred years. It is now a common indulgence, but was not always so. Caterina dei Medici brought it to France in 1533.”
“More recently, it was served on a special occasion in a three-hundred year old palace on via Monte di Dio in Naples. The palace, il Palazzo Serra di Cassano, was damaged in WWII and was sadly suffering from neglect when its owner, il Duca Serra di Cassano, decided to restore it to its original splendor. When the renovation was complete the duke celebrated with one of the most elaborate banquets of modern times. After sweets, cheese and fruit, the meal concluded with a serving of spaghetti aglio e olio. And that my boy is what we shall have for lunch.”
Mentor had created an air of epicurean expectancy. I could hardly wait. He brought forth from the pantry a large cauldron. Filling it a third full with water, he set it on the stove to heat. Meanwhile, he peeled and sliced some garlic, placing it in a skillet with a few spoons of olive oil and a dash of crushed red pepper. When the water came to a boil, he threw in a bit of salt and added the spaghetti. “Here, Prodigy, chop this parsley.” When the pasta was almost ready, he turned up the flame on the skillet, heating the garlic, pepper and oil with stirring until the garlic took on the faintest golden hue. “You must be very careful here,” he interjected. “The smell of burnt garlic does not belong in the kitchen.” Mentor drained the spaghetti and transferred it with the parsley to the skillet. Over the heat, he tossed the mixture for a few seconds before turning it into our plates
“Such a simple dish to cap a grand meal?” I wondered aloud.
“Indeed, Prodigy. Gastronomy like science is most beautiful when it is simple.”
Mentor opened a bottle of ’97 Gattinara. Pouring two glasses, he said: “Best not to mention this to Mom. She will not understand.”
Renewed by lunch, I again took up the application of smart fraction theory to immigration. “What can you tell me about the IQs of third-world immigrants?” I asked.
Mentor rummaged through some papers on his desk. “I ran across this a few days ago,” he said handing me a reprint of a review of several Dutch studies. I read the abstract.
Jan te Nijenhuis and Henk van der Flier, “Group differences in mean intelligence for the Dutch and Third World immigrants,” Journal of Biosocial Science, 33 (2001), 469-475.
Evidence from eleven samples indicates that the mean IQ of third world immigrants in the Netherlands is lower than the Dutch mean by approximately one standard deviation for Surinamese and Antilleans, and by approximately one and a half standard deviations for Turks and Moroccans. Since IQ tests provide the best prediction of success in school and organizations, it could be that the immigrants’ lower mean IQ is an important factor in their low status on the Dutch labour market. The IQs of second-generation immigrants are rising.
“The studies all find significant differences between ethnic Dutch and immigrant populations,” Mentor explained. “Children born in the Netherlands of Surinamese and Antillean immigrants have IQs about 0.8 standard deviations below native Dutch children. Children born in the Netherlands of Turkish and Moroccan immigrants have IQs even more at odds with their Dutch counterparts with mean IQs 1.2 and 1.4 standard deviations below native Dutch children, respectively. Will this be enough information for you, Prodigy?”
“I think so,” I replied. In fact, I had finished analyzing the problem while Mentor spoke. “Here, for Fifo, are the principles that govern the long-term economic consequences of immigration from the third world. We can call them
Prodigy’s Laws of Immigration.
1. A Western country may be approximated as a nation composed of two distinct populations, one indigenous, the other third-world, differing in mean IQ by approximately one standard deviation.
2. In standard deviation units, a Western country with a third-world population fraction, f, has a mean IQ of –f
3. Per capita GDP, declines linearly with the third-world immigrant population fraction.
4. Each percentage point increase in the third-world immigrant population, will eventually cause the per capita GDP of a Western nation to drop by approximately 0.76 percent of its zero-immigrant value.
“And where do these laws come from?” inquired Mentor.
“Let’s take them one at a time,” I replied.
“The First Law models the observation that white Europeans, across nations, have similar IQ distributions, whereas the IQ distributions of third-world immigrants and their progeny are about a standard deviation lower.
“The Second Law arises as follows: Suppose the mean IQ of the immigrant group is δ standard deviations below that of the native group. Assigning a mean IQ of zero SD to the native group, the immigrant mean is then -δ. If f is the immigrant population fraction, then the nation’s mean IQ, in standard deviation units, will be -δf. Using the First Law value for δ of 1, the national mean IQ is then –f.
“The Third Law: Let Φ be the verbal IQ distribution in the binary population described by the First Law. The national distribution is the sum of the individual group distributions, P, weighted by their respective population fractions. That is,
“Because each group is within itself homogeneous we may assume that their IQ distributions are Gaussian; the composite distribution, Φ, however, is not. The nation’s smart fraction, F, is given by:
“where Q0 is the ‘smart constant,’ i.e., the verbal IQ threshold (in SD units) that defines the smart fraction. A value for the smart constant was determined, in Smart Fraction Theory II: Why Asians Lag, to be 5.58/15 or 0.372 SD, corresponding to a threshold IQ (in conventional units) of 105.58. (This assignment implies a mean IQ for the dominant group of 100, a value characteristic of white Europeans.)
“Combining (1) and (2) shows after simplification that the smart fraction depends linearly on the immigrant population fraction. That is,
“Here, F0 is the smart fraction in a native European population with a mean IQ of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 IQ points, i.e., F0 = F(0,0) = = 0.3549464247.
“The proportionality of smart fraction and per capita GDP, then leads directly to the assertion of a linear relationship between per capita GDP and the immigrant population fraction, i.e., the Third Law.”
“I see,” said Mentor. “As its third-world population fraction increases, (3) specifies the linear path by which a first-world Western European country will slide into economic oblivion.”
“Exactly. Figure 1 illustrates the linear decline.
Figure 1. A country’s smart fraction, and consequently its per capita GDP, declines linearly with the immigrant population fraction, shown here for a native-immigrant cognitive gap of 1 SD.
“The Fourth Law: Consider a country with a third-world immigrant population fraction, f1. Suppose, because of continued third-world net influx and/or fecundity differences, the population fraction increases to f2. We ask, what percentage of the per capita GDP (at f1 ) will the per capita GDP be at f2? The answer is obtained from (3), using the proportionality of per capita GDP and smart fraction:
“An interesting special case occurs when we start with no third worlders, i.e., f1 = 0. That is, we ask what percentage of its zero-immigrant value is the per capita GDP when the population fraction is f. This is obtained from (4) by setting f1 = 0, and f2 = f:
“The per capita GDP as a percentage of its zero immigrant value is plotted in Figure 2, for δ = 1.
Figure 2. Per capita GDP as a percentage of its zero-immigrant value, shown here for a cognitive gap of 1 SD.
“The slope of the line in Figure 2 is -0.7604, which gives us the Fourth Law. That is, each percentage point increase in the third-world immigrant population, will eventually cause the per capita GDP of a Western nation to drop by approximately 0.76 percent of its zero-immigrant value.
“As the third-world component of a Western nation builds, per capita GDP begins to drop. Ultimately, the Western nation will itself become part of the third world. Equation (5) traces its path to le tiers monde.”
I was pleased at how smoothly my thoughts were flowing when Mentor interrupted. “How can we test your ideas?” he queried.
Mentor’s question was of course entirely appropriate. My results needed to be put to a test. But how? Ideally, I would want GDP data from a Western country with a large non-Western population fraction around long enough to reach some sort of economic equilibrium. No European nation fit the bill. In Europe, the Netherlands has the greatest proportion of non-Westerners, but even there, third worlders make up only 9% of the population, not enough to shrink its per capita GDP below the normal spread of values expected in comparable countries.
“There isn’t a European country with a large enough third-world population to make a decent test,” I remarked dejectedly.”
“There is a solution, however,” interjected Mentor, “and you will not need a gravity-wave detector to implement it. Though no European country has a large enough third-world population to run a valid test, there is a European-like nation that suits your needs. Can you guess what I have in mind? It is a country with a Western economic tradition, but burdened with a huge third-world population that severely depresses its smart fraction and its per capita GDP.”
I understood immediately. “You mean South Africa,” I said excitedly. “May I borrow your CIA World Factbook?”
Mentor handed me the 2004 edition from which I noted that 16.2% of the South African population is either white or Indian, the rest being of the third world. “If we apply the Fourth Law to South Africa using a third-world population fraction of 0.838, we predict that South Africa’s per capita GDP has been depressed by its third-world population to approximately 36.3% of its hypothetical ‘pure European’ value. If we now scale up South Africa’s per capita GDP of $10.7k (purchasing power parity basis) to its hypothetical ‘pure European’ value, we get $29.5k, a value about in the middle of the West European countries, e.g., Finland $27.4k, France $27.6k, Norway $37.8k, Denmark $31.1k, Belgium $29.1k, UK $27.7k, Switzerland $32.7k, Germany $27.6k, Austria $30.0k, Netherlands $28.6k and Italy $26.7k.”
I could not hide my delight. Mentor was pleased too. Sitting down at the piano, he broke into song.
Hurrah for the flag of the free!
May it wave as our standard forever,
The gem of the land and the sea,
The banner of the right.
Let despots remember the day
When our fathers with mighty endeavor
Proclaimed as they marched to the fray
That by their might and by their right
It waves forever.
Mentor was playing a little game with me. I knew him well enough to know this was no random selection. “Look here,” he said, pulling from his desk a recent population projection by US Census Bureau demographers, “what can your Laws of Immigration tell us about the changing face of America?”
Mentor handed me US population breakdowns by race and ethnicity estimated by the Census Bureau through mid-century. Table 1 summarizes the estimates.
|Table 1. Evolution of First and Third World Populations in the US through 2050|
|Percent of Total Population|
|White not Hispanic||69.4||67.6||65.1||61.3||57.5||53.7||50.1|
|All other races*||2.5||2.7||3.0||3.5||4.1||4.7||5.3|
|*Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races|
Figure 3 shows the trends graphically.
Figure 3. US Census Bureau projections of first and third world populations through mid-century.
Using values for f1 and f2 of 0.283 and 0.419, respectively, in (4), we expect that:
1) By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined, because of third-world immigration, to 86.8% of its 2004 value.
2) Correspondingly, from the Second Law, during this time the US mean IQ will have dropped by about 2 IQ points.
I presented the results to Mentor. He seemed pleased. There would be plenty of time to institute a rational immigration policy. Fifo would boost his class standing, and Mentor would boost his standing with Fifo’s mom. On the way home, Mentor’s kitchen, redolent of garlic, was fresh upon my memory. I worked out a simplification for my less numerate fans so they too could share the joys of numerical immigration. I e-mailed it to Mentor when I arrived home. It is included as an appendix to this account.
APPENDIX. A SIMPLE APPROXIMATION TO THE SMART FRACTION FOR PRODIGY’S LESS NUMERATE READERS.
Write (3) as follows:
Expand g about δ = 1. To the quadratic term we have
With derivatives evaluated from (7), dropping the cubic and higher terms gives a numerical approximation to the smart fraction:
Equation (9) has the advantage of being algebraic. It will allow Fifo and others to play immigration games of their own choosing.
Because it may sometimes be convenient to write the smart fraction, F, in terms of conventional IQ units, Q, I include such an expression obtained by substituting (100 – Q)/15 for δ in (9):
The first term in both (9) and (10) is F0, the smart fraction in a European country with no third-world immigrants.
Because the expansions (9) and (10) have been truncated, we need a sense of their accuracy. Figure 4 shows the errors to be negligible.
Figure 4. The difference between accurate values of the smart fraction and the approximate smart fraction calculations of (9) or (10), stays well below 0.001 for various choices of first- and third-world mean IQ differences.